All Weather News

Stormy South More Snows Comin’

27 Feb 2009, 3:04 pm
Forecast Precipitation Type (8 Day)
Forecast Precipitation Type (8 Day)
Forecast Minimum Temperatures (8 Day)
Forecast Minimum Temperatures (8 Day)

Today opened with the remnants of yesterday’s storms over the south. The Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk this morning extending from northern Louisiana ENE into central and northern Alabama.

So far the storms have been producing large hail and gusty winds, with one report of a possible tornado causing downed trees. View the live Storm Reports section of our mapcenter for further details.

The storms will continue to move east throughout the evening and into tomorrow morning with the possibility of more severe storms in the southeast tomorrow, including Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and northern Florida with emphasis on the Panhandle.

The snows and ice we discussed on Wednesday certainly did perform with a flourish, as the remnants of that system are currently moving into the northeastern United States, with mostly rains remaining for New England.

A look at our Medium Range Forecast Precipitation Type Animation shows the east coast low we discussed on Wednesday veering slightly more east than the initial forecast. Because of this snows will not be as far inland as the previous runs showed.

Snow totals could be impressive as the system moves through, with emphasis in the south in South Carolina and east central Georgia, with impressive snows also possible along the coastal areas of New England from Connecticut through Massachusetts and Maine.

To step through possibilities over the weekend we will refer to our Animation again. You may find it helpful to choose “stop” on the controls at the bottom and advance each frame individually. Recall our Medium Range product is at 6 hour intervals, and extends out 8 days. Each frame represents that “if” precipitation should occur in some area, what form would that precipitation likely take? Recall, that each frame represents a 6 hour window, meaning that it represents the previous six hours up to and ending at the valid time on the bottom.

The first frame shows snows possible in the high plains due to a mid level disturbance shooting through the area. Snows with this system will not be overly zealous but will be heavy at times, with areas of south central South Dakota receiving greater than 6″ in some areas. Also evident with this frame is the liquid precipitation and associated thunderstorms we discussed above.

As we advance along to the 48 hour forecast (F048hr) valid Sunday Morning at 7am EST we notice the area of lower pressure we discussed on Wednesday has formed and begun to advance along the mid-atlantic states. Notice at this time frame the forecast shows the possibility of snows in the deep south including Mississippi, Alabama, and Northern Georgia. It will be interesting to see if this plays out. Also at this time frame we have the usual monstrous area of lower pressure sitting off the Pacific Northwest. What will it do? =)

As we zoom along to the 60 hour forecast (F060hr) valid 7pm EST on Sunday, notice how the possibility for snow extends all along the coastal regions and still includes portions of the south in the mix. This is due to surface influences and kinematics elongating the area of lower pressure. Areas as far north as the Northern tip of Maine are forecast to have the possibility of snow at this point.

At this point this particular forecast graphic as you advance through the beginning of next week shows the possibility of snow along coastal areas through Tuesday morning. Shorter term graphics also include the possibility of icing and more restrictive snow totals.

An examination of our Forecast Minimum Temperatures Animation shows why the possibility for snows in the deep south exist. Recall that this product is at 6 hour intervals out 8 days, and that it represents what the minimum temperature is forecast to be over the 6 hour window up to and including the valid time.

Notice the large swath of warmth in the south at the first image, and how as you slowly advance that warmth dissipates to be replaced by the red toi (Temperature of Interest) that represents the freezing mark, or 32ºF. The freezing mark plunges into the deep south so that at least for a time, they will have to suffer as the rest of us do!

The good news is that by next Friday (Mark 6) it seems that the great lakes and the north may finally get to see some above freezing temperatures again!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick


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