Summer Winding Down? Pollen Forecast, Severe Threat, Much Needed Rain and Southwest Heat
Tuesday, August 14th, 2012
Thanks to the Rocky Mountain National Park for sharing this beauty on their Facebook page. Looks like the first signs of Fall are starting to show up!
“Summer’s winding down, & with it some summer ranger-led programs are ending. Be sure to read your newspaper carefully when selecting a program to attend this time of year. Golden aspens & bugling elk are coming. (NPS file photo). ks”
Happy? Sleepy? Sneezy? Grumpy?
I couldn’t remember the other 3 of the 7 dwarf names, but every year around late August/early September, I turn into a sneeze machine. I love Fall, but my seasonal allergies kick in so much that I almost wish for an early frost/freeze to end the misery. It’s not bad yet, but the allergy update from pollen.com shows pockets of high pollen counts across the Plains and the Front Range of the Rockies. If you’ve been itching, scratching or sneezing a little more as of late, it’s probably because of the the higher pollen counts creeping back up. The image below shows the pollen count across the nation with the worst cities being: Bismarck, ND; Denver, CO; Cheyenne, WY; Fargo, ND and Grand Forks, ND.
Change is Just Around the Corner
As the Northern Hemisphere continues to lose daylight (Post Summer Solstice and only 39 days away from the Autumnal Equinox on September 22nd @ 10:49AM EDT) you may be noticing a few subtle signs of change close to home.
Shrinking daylight… minutes lost per day
Fairbanks, AK: ~7mins
Seattle, WA: ~3mins
Minneapolis, MN: ~2:45mins
Chicago, IL: ~2:30mins
St. Louis, MO: ~2:15mins
Los Angeles, CA: ~1:50mins
Miami, FL: ~1:15mins
We still have several weeks before the main wave of fall foliage rears its head across the nation, but peak color in a few spots may only be a little more than a month away!
This also tends to be the time when tropical cyclones become more common in the tropics. They start to run more rampant throughout the tropical regions by September. The National Hurricane Center released an update on their hurricane forecast for the season, which is above normal.
“2012 Hurricane Season Now Forecast Above Normal
“It takes a whole set of conditions to produce a hurricane and right now, that whole set of conditions is favorable,” said Gerry Bell, the center’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster.
The center said it was now predicting there would be 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 8 of them hurricanes. It raised the numbers partly because of the number of storms we have already seen this year.”
(Image credit: NASA – Hurricane Ernesto in early August approaching Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.)
Hurricane Season Peaks in September
On average, hurricane season peaks in September when water temperatures are at their warmest. The image below shows the number of named storms per 100 years. Note how it peaks on September 10th, which coincides with the midway point of the hurricane season (June 1st – November 30th)
Current Tropical Situation in the Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is looking at two waves in the Atlantic, but for the most part, it remains quiet.
Current Tropical Situation in the Pacific
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 800 AM PDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. HECTOR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST…AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
Severe weather threat on Tuesday
Severe weather threat on Wednesday
Severe weather threat on Thursday
Much Needed Rain!
Nice to see rainfall forecasts like this! The progressive storms systems over the next 5 days bring the potential of several inches of rain in spots across the eastern half of the country… but we need more!
More Heat in the Southwest
Record high temperatures continue to fall with some of the highest numbers coming in around Palm Springs, CA at 117° & 116° for Sunday and Monday respectively. It’ll be another hot day today with Excessive Heat Warnings posted for Phoenix and Yuma, AZ and other locales shaded in pink below.
Hot Forecast in the Southwest
These are the forecast high temperatures today in the Southwest… YIKES! Stay cool out there!!
There’s a Silver Lining
The good news is that after such a hot summer so far, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook looks to remain ‘cooler’ throughout a good chunk of the central part of the country through the rest of the month. This will be a nice relief from the 90s and 100s that seemed to be so relentless through much of June and July.
Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week!
Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV