TD-2 Likely to Turn Into Tropical Storm Bonnie With U.S. in Its Sights
Less than a week away from the official start to the 2016 Hurricane Season and an are of disturbed weather in the Atlantic already has a 90% chance of becoming our second named storm this year. The first named storm of the year, Alex, occurred all the way back in January out in the open waters of the Atlantic.
The National Hurricane Center predicted a normal hurricane season with a 70% chance of seeing 10 – 16 named storms, with 1 – 4 becoming major hurricanes. Just because there are a couple pre-season storms, doesn’t necessarily correlate to any season being more or even less active than usual.
Many other factors determine how active a given season will be. What makes this year particularly unique is the current weather pattern. With El Nino ending and the early signs of a La Nina already showing up, there are many more variables to consider.
As disturbances move across the open waters of the Atlantic during Hurricane season they battle cool waters, Saharan dust, and wind shear— all factors that will inhibit development. The current system in the Atlantic will not face any significant obstacles in the coming days. Waters are warm, the system is beyond the dry Saharan dust of the summer months, and wind shear is relatively minimal. All reasons Tropical Depression 2 has been given a 90% probability of becoming the next named storm within 48 hours by the National Hurricane Center.
If TD-2 turns into a tropical storm it will be given the name Bonnie. And if it becomes a hurricane before landfall it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in almost a decade. There is still much debate about this, as super-storm Sandy weakened from hurricane status before landfall.
But nonetheless, if you are planning to spend your holiday weekend at any beach along the Eastern Seaboard from Georgia to North Carolina take proper precautions and stay weather aware throughout the weekend. The rain will start early in the day on Saturday although landfall will likely not occur until the evening.