All Weather News

The Storm That Refuses To Go Away, More In The Future?

20 Mar 2009, 2:54 pm
Forecast Ptype 7.5 Day
Forecast Ptype 7.5 Day
Fcst Max Temps 7.5 Day
Fcst Max Temps 7.5 Day
Forecast Ptype 3.5 Day
Forecast Ptype 3.5 Day

The developing storm we have been discussing since Monday for next Monday has certainly oscillated between a few varying iterations, especially over the last few days. However, she still seems to be forming!

Let’s start today with a short term outlook from today through the weekend with our 3.5 Day Forecast Ptype Animation beginning with F006hr valid 2pm EDT today. Recall on all our animation products that each window of time represents what is forecast to occur prior to the valid time at the bottom and ending at that time. In the case of this product, it is a three hour window since each frame in the animation is at three hour intervals.

So beginning at 2pm, we see snows with the possibility of mixed precipitation in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. This is verified in our Radar Center with our Precipitation Type Radar. Recall with that product you can overlay interesting fields onto the radar product such as current frontal locations, current warnings, current conditions via station models, and change the background to a flat background instead of topo and so forth.

Our Advisory Center also shows a winter weather advisory for northeastern Minnesota associated with the snows valid until 6pm EDT this evening calling for an average of 2-4″ of snow in the region, with higher amounts possible in some areas.

As we advance through F024hr valid 8am EDT on Saturday morning we see the snows progress in a generally ESE direction into Michigan and southern Ontario where by Sunday F048hr Valid 8am EDT chances for snow will exist mostly in the northeastern states from New York State through Maine with some spotty remnants in northern Michigan, where Maine will have a chance for occasional snows through the day, most will be cleared off for the balance by the afternoon.

Looking off to the PNW and back to our first image of F003hr valid 11am EDT today, we see some rains and snows moving in again as we previously discussed would be associated with another surge. Advancing through F012hr valid 8pm EDT this evening, precipitation picks up a bit in the PNW with snows becoming more developed in mountainous terrains. Totals for today will be around 5-7″ or so in the Cascades with the possibility of larger accumulations at higher elevations. At this point the rains we discussed for New Mexico and SW Texas also begin to develop.

Things begin to get interesting for the PNW around F027 Valid 11am EDT Saturday Morning as available moisture begins precipitating as rain in lower elevations in northern California and Oregon, as well as areas of the Northern Rockies. Here as the trough begins to deepen and propagate eastward for the developing storm we discussed for the beginning of next week, excellent orographic forcing will aid in more impressive snows for the Cascade and Sierra mountains up to around 8″ or so for the day, where by Sunday at least another 8″ is likely, with snows also occurring along nearly the entire stretch of the Rockies as everything sweeps inland, albeit with lower overall accumulations with the most impressive totals inland occurring over southwest Montana, and northeast Utah.

By the time late Sunday and early Monday rolls around things become interesting, as the storm that we have discussed coming up next week refuses to die in the models. The last two frames of our 3.5 day Ptype Animation F072 valid 8am EDT Monday, March 23 we see our low over northeastern Colorado forecast to be at 991mb with rains extending along the majority of the northern plains, and fairly tightly packed isobars which translates to winds.

Advance through F081 valid 5pm EDT next Monday, and she is forecast to dig a little deeper to 985mb with rains running along the northern and eastern flanks, and snows on the west, which basically means we will see a triple point develop. The little blotches of green are likely thunderstorms that will form. While general thunderstorms will occur over the weekend, the big ones as we’ve discussed all week will likely occur on Monday unless things develop differently from what the models are currently calling for.

Advance to our last frame for the 3.5 day Ptype Animation F084 Valid 8pm EDT on Monday (here is where it is important to remember that each frame represents what is forecast to occur 3 hours prior to and ending at the valid time. Notice the beautiful rain shield spiraling out of the system to the south, Monday will certainly be an interesting day!

But wait, there’s more! What happened to our system dipping south for a bit, and taking a longer trek to the north and east? Well, let’s see how things differ today with our 7.5 day Ptype Animation. Recall this product is at 6 hour intervals instead of three. Once you open her up, click “stop” and “forward one” until you reach F066hr Valid 2am EDT on Monday.

Here our low is centered over the same region of NE Colorado, now slowly click a few more frames. Remember this product is “twice as fast” when viewing the animation, but in reality simply represents longer windows of time, so you must make careful observations.

Click 3 times and watch the low carefully. Try not to concentrate on the location of the symbol and forecast pressure of the low, but instead on the isobars themselves. Notice that for this forecast run (12z today) that for those three frames today it is not forecast to “dip” and become another Dodge City low, but instead propagates on a nearly pure easterly course until the F084 valid 8pm EDT where she treks northeasterly.

By F108 valid 8pm EDT on Tuesday March 24 she shows a heading of western Minnesota instead of eastern, with a forecast central pressure of 994mb, and by 2pm EDT on Wednesday heads into Canada on the borders of Ontario and Manitoba Provinces.

Also notice around this time the potential for a developing low off the eastern seaboard. Basically starting around 8pm EDT on Monday (F084) notice the very weak developing pressure of 1007mb sitting in the Atlantic with the snows we discussed for Maine. Advance through 8pm EDT on Tuesday (F108) she looks a little healthier, and maintains herself through Wednesday, Thursday, and by Friday at 2am EDT (F162) she really looks healthy at 988mb. However, what if the low were develop slightly closer to the coastline? Or will Nova Scotia simply get nailed, and perhaps a bit of Maine?

Something else to keep our eye on is another developing system next Thursday (F138 on our Animation) valid 2am EDT. Again over northeastern Colorado but look at those forecast isobars… Sheesh! she could be a healthy one too. Tough to tell that far out, but it is something to certainly keep our eye on.

Something else you may wish to view are our forecast Maximum and Minimum temperature animations. On Sunday morning the cold we discussed for the mid-Atlantic through the northeast shows its nasty self and hangs on for the northeast through Tuesday Morning, and as the day rolls along the cold air advection associated with our developing storm barrels into the northern plains. The good news is by next Thursday the majority of the central and southern plains through the northeast will have a brief respite from the cold, so we have something to look forward too!

Please be sure to view our Advisory and Radar Centers for the latest updates and developments.

As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!

cheers,

–patrick

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