Tracking Tropical Storm Chantal; Severe Storm Threats and 2013 Tornado Count
Tuesday, July 9th, 2013
I took a little field trip this morning to the grocery store to watch a line of thunderstorm rumble in to the Twin Cities earlier Tuesday morning. As expected, the storm delivered quite a view! The image below from near Excelsior, MN shows a shelf cloud, which is the leading edge of a line of thunderstorms that produces gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Sometimes the winds with these types of storms can be quite damaging, thankfully the storms that rolled into the Twin Cities this morning were quite tame. There were however a few thousand customers that lost power due to the storm.
Florida Water Spout/Tornado
Several reports of water spouts and tornadoes came in yesterday from near the Tampa Bay, FL area. The good news is that damage was fairly minimal. Take a look at the incredible images below.
Slow Tornado Year of 2013
2013 has certainly been a slow tornado year thus far. We had a small spike in the tornado count during the months of May and June, but even with that, we are running well below the climatological average. According to the SPC, the preliminary tornado count thru July 9th is 637, while the short-term 8yr. average is 1107 thru that date. Interestingly, 2013 is the lowest number of preliminary tornadoes that we’ve seen in that short-term history, even lower than the quiet year of 2005!
The graphic below shows how the 2013 preliminary tornado count compares to the last two years… interesting isn’t it!
Severe Threat Continues
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley for Tuesday. Hail and High Winds look to be the primary threat along with heavy rainfall, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
Severe Threat Wednesday
Heavy Rainfall Potential
NOAA’s HPC 3 day rainfall forecast suggests heavier rainfall potential across the eastern part of the country over the next few days as a cool front slides east. Some spots could see 1″ to 3″ or more through Friday.
Our third named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season continues to drift WNW through the Caribbean. As of midday Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center still had Chantal as a Tropical Storm, the center of which was sliding west of St. Lucia
St. Lucia Webcam
The webcam from Rodney Bay, St. Lucia showed some pretty inclement weather conditions earlier Tuesday.
Upper Level Steering Winds
The upper level steering winds suggest Chantal will continue drifting WNW over the next several days nera Hispanola and the Bahamas
National Hurricane Center
The Spaghetti Model plots below show different weather models solutions for Chantal over the coming days. Each different colored line represents a different weather models solution, when you put them all together, they look like colored spaghetti noodles, hence the “Spaghetti Model” name. Note how most of the lines take Chantal east of Florida. Some models take Chantal into Florida by late weekend/early next week.
National Hurricane Center Track
This is the ‘official’ track from the National Hurricane Center. Keep in mind that this forecast will likely change, so keep up to date with latest forecasts from the NHC HERE:
Thanks for checking in on this Tuesday, have a great rest of your week ahead!
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