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Tropical Depression Sixteen Develops in the Southwest Caribbean

A complex of showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean has become more organized over the past 24 hours. This is tropical depression sixteen according to the National Hurricane Center. It could be named later today or early Thursday…and the name will be Nate.

BREAKING: Tropical Depression 16 forms in the SW Caribbean, expected to become Tropical Storm #Nate.

Posted by WeatherNation on Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Central America.

Here is a look at the latest forecast track of tropical depression sixteen.

Models are in good agreement with this tropical depression moving northwestward across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday and then eventually into the southern Gulf Of Mexico by Saturday.  There will be plenty of warm water for this potential system to work with and become even better organized.  Tropical systems need that warm water to grow (typically 80° or higher).

Here is a model comparison of the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) known as the Euro.  These models are in good agreement early on in the forecast, but they do diverge at the end with the GFS taking more of a westerly track compared to the Euro moving east towards the Florida Panhandle.

Now these tracks are not official and will likely change over the coming days.  This is just a way to compare things and the National Hurricane Center will also be looking at these and many other models when they generate their forecast cone.

Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across Nicaragua, 5 to 10 inches across Costa Rica and Panama and 2 to 5 inches across Honduras. The heavy rain could lead to dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Please keep checking with Weather Nation for the latest updates, conditions and tracks of this tropical depression.


Meteorologist Patrick Crawford

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