Tropical Development in the Eastern Pacific… Amanda??
Well, now this is a little more interesting… Here we are in early May and the National Hurricane Center has issued an outlook for a possible tropical wave in the Eastern Pacific. The wave south of Mexico has a 30% of developing into a tropical disturbance, which is not great, but it’s interesting none the less since the season hasn’t officially begun.
Thanks to Earth.nullschool for the image below, which shows the wind flow in the Eastern Pacific and note the counter-clockwise flow around the disturbance.
30% Chance of Development
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME…BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT… LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY…OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
The GFS (American model) forecast into Wednesday night shows the system lifting north into Mexico with heavy rain. The vacation community of Puerto Vallerta could get missed by some of the heaviest rain through the second half of the week…
2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
Interestingly, the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season ‘officially’ starts on May 15th and goes through November 30th. The lists below are the names of the potential tropical storms/hurricanes that we could see over the next 6 years. If the said storm above develops any further, the name will be Amanda and will be the first named storm of the 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. Looks like my name (Todd) could be noteworthy in 2017… We’ll see??