Updated: Tropical Disturbance Poses Low Threat to Caribbean
Updated Saturday, September 30:
A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles is causing concerns for flooding in Puerto Rico.
The tropical disturbance is producing clouds and heavy rain over the northeastern Caribbean Sea and over Puerto Rico where a flash flood watch has been issued.
Heavy rain triggered a flash flood warning Friday afternoon across northwestern Puerto Rico where there is existing concerns regarding the faltering Guajataca Dam. Communities downstream of the Guajataca Dam remain under a flash flood warning through Sunday due to a possible dam failure.
The tropical disturbance moved over the Lesser Antilles Friday, and continues to move westward this weekend. Locally heavy rain has been seen over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday. The National Hurricane Center has lessened the chance of this wave becoming organized into a tropical system since yesterday. The chance is now near zero percent.
Heavy rain will overspread much of the Greater Antilles over the weekend as the tropical wave moves west. This may lead to localized flooding and possible mud slides in the mountains.
Rainfall totals may range between 2-4″ across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by Monday.
Tropical development over the next three to five days appears unlikely at this time. Regardless, those with interest in the Caribbean should continue to monitor the latest forecast.