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Tropical Low to Bring Texas Rain, Flood Potential

14 Jun 2015, 2:27 pm

spaghetti plot

A tropical system could impact Texas with flooding rainfall Monday night and Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has put a 70 percent chance of a tropical low off of the Mexican coastline of developing into a formal tropical system in the next 48 hours. If it were to become a Tropical Storm, it would be the second named storm of the season in the Atlantic and it would acquire the name Bill.

The U.S. Air Force sent in its so-called ‘Hurricane Hunters’ (officially termed the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron) to examine the storm, which as of early Sunday afternoon was still located over the Yucatan Peninsula of eastern Mexico.

The NHC in its 2pm EDT update on Sunday called for the storm to move into a “more favorable” location for development on Monday in the western Gulf of Mexico, with gradual strengthening expected before a possible landfall over the southeastern Texas coastline later Monday or Tuesday.

Regardless of whether or not the system – officially, for now, termed “Invest 91L” by the NHC – matures into a named tropical system or not, it is a near-lock to bring substantial rainfall to an area that certainly does not need it. The Texas Gulf Coast has dealt with consistent drenching rain throughout the spring. Houston, Corpus Christi and Victoria are all 10-or-more inches of rain above average so far this year. Corpus Christi, in particular has been hit hard; the city’s 30.31″ of rain so far in 2015 is 18.65″ over its typical year-to-date average of 11.66″. With saturated ground across much of the region, a potential 5-10″ of rain (as indicated by forecast models and National Weather Service forecasts) from this tropical low could prove to be too much to handle, and widespread flash flooding could take place as a result.

The system has already impacted vacationers in Mexico’s famous Cancun resort, where 3.10″ of rain had been recorded through the weekend from the system as of Sunday afternoon. Nearby Cozumel and Playa del Carmen also received significant rainfall, washing out beach days for tourists.

Meanwhile, on the Pacific side of Mexico, Carlos weakened on Sunday morning to a Tropical Storm. The system is expected to gradually weaken as it skirts the western Mexican coastline, although interests in Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, Mexico should keep close tabs as Carlos’ moisture could lead to flooding along the Mexican coastline.

Stay with WeatherNation and for the latest on this potentially high-impact system.

Meteorologist Chris Bianchi

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