Tropical Storm Andrea Flies Up the East Coast Generating Flash Flooding, High Winds
Tropical Storm Andrea Bullet Points:
* Andrea has weakened over land, currently centered over South Carolina, with sustained winds of 45 mph.
* Some strengthening is likely as the center of Andrea passes over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream this evening and tonight.
* Tornado risk greatest over the Outer Banks of North Carolina
* Biggest risk is still 2-4″ rains and flash flood potential from the Carolinas into New England by tonight.
* Storm surge of 2-3 feet above normal high tide expected, as much as 4-5″ above mean sea level in Manhattan’s Battery tonight.
* 50 mph+ winds may brush eastern Long Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod tonight, with gusts to 60 mph, capable of minor damage and sporadic power outages.
* Andrea accelerates out into the Atlantic Saturday with rapidly improving conditions. Today will be the rough day; heavy rain complicating commutes by land, rail and air, and urban and small stream/river flooding likely from Charlotte and Raleigh to Washington D.C., Philadelphia and New York. For Providence, the Cape and Boston the worst conditions arrive late tonight and early Saturday.
Rainfall potential over the next 48 hours:
Flash Flood Guidance for the Carolinas
From NOAA: “Flash Flood Guidance estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. These estimates are based on current soil moisture conditions. Note, in urban areas, less rainfall is required to produce flash flooding”
The yellow shaded counties indicate areas where it would only 1.5 to 2 inches of rain over 3 hours for flash flooding to occur. Rainfall totals within that time frame in that area are likely. Flash Flood Watches in effect for green shaded areas.
From the National Weather Service:
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON... .AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ON CREEKS... STREAMS... AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Latest models show some reintensification as the core of Andrea passes out over warm, Gulf Stream waters this evening and tonight; 50-64 mph winds possible from Long Island into much of coastal New England tonight and early Saturday.
Along with rain, thunderstorms may spin up weak tornadoes. The area of concern today includes Virginia Beach, Raleigh, and Wilmington. Andrea produced similar conditions along the coasts of Florida yesterday.
Slick roadways and limited visibility will create for travel issues all across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic today.
Storm Summary: Tropical Storm Andrea is on track; further strengthening may take place later today and tonight, with conditions deteriorating as the day goes on, from south to north along the Eastern Seaboard. Rainfall rates will increase from Richmond and Washington D.C. to Philadelphia by midday and afternoon, the heaviest rains impacting New York City and suburbs tonight. Winds up to 50 mph will brush Long Island, Cape Cod and the Boston area late tonight and early Saturday. The greatest risk is still inland flooding, but some minor wind damage is likely, with the greatest potential for power outages from Long Island to Cape Cod tonight. A 2-3 foot storm surge will result in only minor coastal flooding; water levels rising as much as 3-5 feet above mean sea level in New York Harbor tonight.
Sizzling in the Southwest
High pressure over the Great Basin keeps the southwest hot for another day. Temperatures expected to be even hotter than yesterday.
From the Phoenix NWS:
Paul Douglas/Senior Meteorlogist
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