Tropical Storm Dolly Takes Aim at Mexico’s Western Gulf Coast
Tropical Storm Dolly, packing winds of 50-mph, is currently situated about 150 miles south-southeast of La Pesca Mexico. The storm is tracking due west at 12-mph and has a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars, making it a relatively weak system. And due to the storm’s proximity to land, little strengthening is expected over the next 12 hours.
The satellite imagery from the region shows a storm with an ill-defined center, but tons of strong convection (thunderstorms) around the broader circulation. And even though Dolly won’t pose a large wind threat, tropical storm warnings have been posted of parts of the Mexican coastline — from Cabo Rojo to Barra El Mezquital.
At this point, Dolly is likely to make landfall late Tuesday night or very early Wednesday morning.
Torrential rains will be a huge concern for residents of central Mexico as Dolly brings ample Gulf moisture ashore over the next couple of days. That moisture will interact with the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains, causing an upslope effect. Meaning the warm, moist air below the mountains will be pushed upward; the ascending air will cool and condense, enhancing rainfall in the region.
A WeatherNation proprietary forecast model is suggesting that some parts of Mexico could receive as much as 22 inches of rain through Wednesday afternoon. This could spell big flooding problems for places like Tampico, Tuxpan and other regional cities. Even more than 200 miles inland, some locations could receive upward of a foot of rain. Parts of South Texas could get some much needed rainfall as well, but it might be too much of a good thing. The far-southern tip of Texas could receive between 3 to 6 inches of rain.
In a translated release from meteorologists at the Mexican National Weather Service, officials said the general public and mariners should “maintain precautions and comply with the recommendations issued by the authorities of the National Civil Protection System.”
WeatherNation meteorologists will be keeping an eye on the situation and bringing you the latest as changes come in.
Meteorologist Alan Raymond