Tropical Update & A Chilly Halloween Forecast?
Tuesday, October 22nd, 2013
Hurricane RAYMOND continues to churn just off the western shore of Mexico. As of midday Tuesday, RAYMOND was downgraded to a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds up to near 100mph. The good news is that the strongest winds look to stay offshore, but waves of heavy rainfall will continue to batter the coastal communities with more flooding potential.
More good news… the forecast track for Raymond is to drift west over the coming days, which means weather conditions for Mexico will be improving into the coming days.
Tracking Lorenzo in the Atlantic
Say hello to Lorenzo, our 12th named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The good news is that Lorenzo looks to stay as a fish storm. The forecast keeps Lorenzo well away from any landmasses.
Here’s the forecast track for LORENZO. See ya!!!
High Amplitude Weather Pattern
Take a look at the upper level wind map for midday Wednesday, note the large bubble in the west, while the large trough in the east continues to settle in.
This is how temperatures are responding to the upper level winds. Under the ridge in the west, warm and dry weather conditions have set up, while colder and somewhat snowy weather conditions and persisted in the east.
Embedded within this cold pool of air are clipper systems that have brought quick shots of precipitation (some snow) and reinforcing shots of colder weather as of late. Here’s a look at the wind map, which shows where the clipper system was located as of midday Tuesday. Note the area of circulation over the Midwest.
This is a look at the radar from midday Tuesday, which shows the clipper system moving through the Midwest. Interestingly, precipitation type varies from one side of the storm to the other.
Rainy in St. Louis
Here was the webcam from St. Louis, MO when light rain showers were pushing through. Webcam courtesy Earthcam.com
Snowy in Iowa
On the northern side of the storm, it was cold enough for accumulating snow in Waterloo, IA and Davenport, IA… Look at those big flakes!
Here’s the transformation from Davenport, IA
Here’s the latest snow tallies from around the Midwest/Great Lakes, where up to 4″+ has fallen in the U.P. of Michigan.
With the persistent northwest flow continuing through the end of the week, the cold air looks to stick around with areas of light snow potential. Lake effect snow will also be possible in a few areas, which the higher resolution snowfall forecast is picking up below.
Here’s a closer look at the snowfall potential over the next few days from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Note the heavier accumulation down wind of Lake Ontario, where a Lake Effect Snow Watch has been issued thru Thursday evening for the potential of 5″ to 9″
Bouts of Cold
According to the extended forecasts, we get a little bubble of warmth in the central part of the country by the weekend.
Here’s another extended weather forecast; a VERY early look at what temps may be doing by Halloween next Thursday. This shows the potential of another blob of colder air sagging as far south as the Gulf Coast States. We might have to think about adding an extra layer to those costumes this year, stay tuned for further updates.
Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week.
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