Tropical Update: Depression Likely to Form in Eastern Pacific, Atlantic is Still Going Strong and Cyclone Nilofar Heads Toward India
It’s been a quiet year in the Atlantic Basin, but fresh off the heels of Monday’s surprise development of Tropical Storm Hanna— that storm went from having a 10 percent chance of development to a tropical storm in one update. The rapid change in status was made by the NHC after analyzing satellite-derived wind data. The remnants of Hanna are over the Gulf of Honduras, near the resort island of Rotan. The associated convection has a 20 percent chance of redevelopment. The current forecast has those remnants moving onshore and into Belize and Guatemala by Wednesday.
The other area of interest is located just to the east of the northern Leeward Islands. A loosely-organized cluster of storms is moving into an environment that’s somewhat conducive for additional development. The storm is moving west-northwest and 10 to 15 miles per hour and will only have a 40 percent chance of development in the next five days.
A tropical wave, in the eastern Pacific, will likely form within the next few hours. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. gives the wave a 100 percent chance of development in the next 40 hours.
Currently, the system is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec — on Mexico’s western coast. While the low is becoming much better organized, it doesn’t yet have a well-defined center of circulation. Hence the reason the NHC has coined it a tropical depression just yet.
When it does form this will be the 19 depression of the season in the eastern Pacific.
The storm is moving into an environment that’s relatively conducive for additional development and if it does become a tropical storm, it will be called Trudy.
The Arabian Sea
Tropical Cyclone Nilofar— located in the central Arabian Sea — is currently packing winds of 132-mph, with gusts exceeding 160-mph. The storm is forecast to stay at sea and weaken though the end of the week, potentially making landfall near the India-Pakistan border as a tropical storm.