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Tropical Update – September 22, 2008

It appears that my tropical forecast from last wednesday is holding true. Invest 93L formed in one of the areas I predicted, and our HAMweather tropical section shows the current state of confusion held by a few predicted forecast tracks for the system. My investigation into the environment currently available for growth leads me to believe the possibility for formation of a massive storm is not likely in the near future. However as upper level winds become more favorable over the next few days, a TD is quite possible, with continued intensification thereafter.

For fun I have included animations from two of our HAMmodel tropical products. The first includes a 7 day animation of MSLP (mean sea level pressure) and BL (boundary layer) winds (barbs indicate the direction winds are predicted to flow from, and a scale for color fills are included at the bottom). The second is a 7 day animation of significant wave heights (color scale included at bottom). I always enjoy viewing such graphics and comparing them to reality after the events are concluded.

If she does become a named system, included below are the current list of names chosen by the international committee of the World Meteorological Organization.

My collegues and I often have fun with hurricane names, such as:

  • If Hurricane Kyle should form, would it kill Kenny?
  • If Hurricane Marco should form, who would say Polo?
  • Would Hurricane Nana hit me like my grandmother used to with a rolling pin?
  • Would Hurricane Omar be played by Omar Sharif (of Lawrence of Arabia / Doctor Zhivago fame)?
  • Below are the most recent thoughts of forecasters Berg and Franklin from the NHC

    ABNT20 KNHC 221756
    TWOAT
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    200 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008
    
    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
    
    A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF
    HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
    EXTREME EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
    BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE
    BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
    POORLY ORGANIZED.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
    HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
    POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
    OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE
    VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
    THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
    OFFICES.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
    INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM SHORTLY.
    
    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

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