The tropics have been driven into a lull between the roars which will last for a tad longer. Several tropical waves have been sniffing about north of the ITCZ trying to sneak their way onto the scene (graphic 1 – click for full size), but do not have enough gusto to overcome an unwelcoming environment. For the next few days tropical cyclone formation is not likely, however shortly thereafter several models tend to agree that formation is evident.
The tropical waves along the central to eastern Atlantic Basin will propagate westerly south of the surface high in the central Atlantic. As shear factors begin to diminish over the next several days, models tend to favor development in the region with formation possible near the Lesser Antilles, and / or with the tropical waves that will kick-off the western African continent. The animation below (click for full size) shows one line of thinking in that context, and contains a seven day animation of one of our HAMmodel products (mslp + blwinds) over a seven day window for the Atlantic Basin. On the Eastern Pacific side, a wide area of disorganized showers over the Gulf of Tehuantepec seems to want to show itself, and is also evident in the graphic below.