Unsettled Weather Continues; Severe Storms and Snow in the Rockies
Large Hail in Des Moines Iowa
Thanks to Jennifer Bailey for the picture below from Des Moines, IA where near golf ball size hail came down on Thursday, May 8th.
Number of Hail Days Per Year
This is an interesting graphic that shows the average number of severe hail days per year (severe hail is 1″ in diameter or larger). According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, severe hail tends to fall in the central part of the country a little more than it does anywhere else across the U.S. with as many as 13 days per year.
However, according to NOAA’s SPC, the number of severe weather days seems to be a little higher near the Mid-Atlantic region with as many as nearly 40 severe weather days per year!
Active Weather Continues
Take a look at the loop below and note the next storm from the Northwest moving into the central part of the country. This particular storm looks to not only bring another round of heavier rainfall potential, but it could also bring severe weather chances back to parts of the Central U.S..
Severe Threats Continue
Although the severe threat doesn’t appear to be extreme, some in the central U.S. will have to keep an eye on the weather this weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Weather Risks for both Saturday and Sunday…
Saturday Severe Threat
…SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY… MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE…A SFC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS ERN KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXIST SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN KS AND MO GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F TO THE MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT…THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM ECNTRL KS EWD INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM NE KS…SE NEB EWD ACROSS IA AND NRN MO DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
Sunday Severe Threat
…MID-MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS… PERVASIVE AND STRENGTHENING SWLYS AT 700 MB WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING EML PLUME AND ATTENDANT CAPPING INVERSION EARLY SUN…WITH INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GIVEN STRONG POLEWARD ADVECTION FROM THE WRN GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD…YIELDING A BROAD STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE DELIMITED BY EARLY SUN WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE E/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK…BUT MORE PROBABLE SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITH SWRN EXTENT WHERE GREATER INSOLATION OCCURS. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM ERN KS INTO SRN IA. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNDERCUTTING BY THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD CLUSTER AND EVENTUAL LINEAR MODES WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS PERSISTING INTO SUN NIGHT. A LARGE MCS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND BROADLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
Future Radar Through Monday Night
This is a little higher resolution future radar that shows the potential precipitation through early next week. Note the blue colors showing up across parts of the Rockies and Front Range, that’s snow! Winter Weather Headlines have been issued in some of these areas for the potential of 1ft. to 2ft by the end of the weekend!!
Heavy Rainfall Potential
According to NOAA’s HPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast suggests another round of heavy moisture moving through the middle part of the country through early next week. Thanks to some convective moisture, some in the middle part of the country could see another 2″ to 4″ or more by PM Wednesday.
Look at the snow blob over parts of the Rockies through early next week. Some of the higher elevations could see 1ft. to 2ft. !!
Snow Returns to the Mountains
…A POWERFUL WINTER-LIKE STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK… .A STRONG ALASKAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD STORM WILL DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO ALL BUT THE LOWER VALLEYS OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. BY MONDAY MORNING ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER VALLEYS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE STORM…ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
* TIMING…RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY ONWARDS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…10 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. * SNOW LEVEL…9000 FEET DROPPING TO MOUNTAIN BASES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV