Lots of rain is on the way for Florida this weekend as a slow moving storm system moves through the state. A broad surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low has been producing a large, but disorganized area of clouds and rain. Showers and thunderstorms extend from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward through the southern Florida peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for some development and a tropical low pressure system could form near Florida or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center says the storm has a moderate chance, 40%, for tropical cyclone development. Wind shear is low over the area now and water temperatures are warm in 80s, favoring development. The area is located in a region that climatologically sees development this time of year.
Regardless of tropical development or not, rainfall will be heavy across Florida. 2″ to 6″ of rain is possible into Monday, especially in eastern sections of the Sunshine State.
Forecast models have been struggling to grab onto an organized system, with low confidence on development and a future track. The low is expected to drift across the peninsula this weekend, producing significant rainfall. Upper-level winds become unfavorable early next week, diminishing the chances for a tropical cyclone to form.
For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels