Weather Update, November 4, 2008: Snow Event!
|Current Model Thoughts|
So what are the models saying today? First, notice above that the winter storm watch issued covers basically what NAM was saying yesterday. However has that changed (note below)?
Recall from yesterday’s post that NAM covered the general area that the winter storm watch is currently issued for, while GFS centered the area of highest predicted snowfall more towards the center of North Dakota.
However, today NAM is thinking that nearly all of North and South Dakota will see significant snowfall, as well as the Nebraska Panhandle and most of Northern Nebraska (including one of my favorite Nebraska cities Valentine, Nebraska, which has a fantastic Pizza Hut, and the Comfort Inn isn’t too bad either!). I have provided the last NAM forecast cycle for your convenience below which is valid through 00z Saturday. Notice the extended area of predicted snowfall (click for full size).
So will adjustments have to be made for the winter storm watch and forthcoming warnings, or is everything ok as it is now? We shall soon see!
Another important issue is forecast temperatures, and the timing with atmospheric progression. Since we have been discussing NAM, let’s see what NAM has to say about temperatures for the remainder of the week. Below is an animation of two-meter temperatures in farenheit (2mt) out through 84 hours (00 sat), with the animation intervals in three hour increments.
A few interesting things to notice. First is that we see our first below zero / negative temperatures for the year in the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains. Second, is notice that I provide two colored “lines” of temperatures (32°F and 72°F isotherms) to aid in highlighting “temperatures of interest.” I provide the 72°F isotherm in the hopes that perhaps this year maybe i’ll take a vacation to somewhere warm, as I haven’t had a vacation in decades (plural tense); but more importantly, note the 32°F isotherm and the timing of cold air advection (‘horizontal’ movement of cooler air at the surface or aloft) in North Dakota and South Dakota. Could this movement affect the timing and location of snowfall?
For your convenience I have included the last forecast cycle (84 hours) below, valid 00z Saturday (Friday evening).
This will definitely be an interesting event to watch. I’m still not excited about Invest 93L yet, as it seems content to meander around without any significant promise of development. If something of interest should occur I will let you know.
As always stay tuned to your favorite weather outlet, stay informed, and stay safe!