Western Wallop and Monitoring Northeast Storm Potential by Weekend/Early Next Week
Monday, October 22nd 2012
Thanks to Mt. Bachelor Ski Resort for the picture below!
“Sunday 10/21/12 – 5:00pm. A 1-2″ blanket of white has covered the mountain… with more in the forecast! In a normal fall, this statement is usually true: “October snow comes & goes… but November snow stays and grows.” Maybe this won’t be a normal fall… and maybe the October snow will stay and grow? Let’s hope so!”
Heavy Snow Continues
The National Weather Service continues WIND and WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES for a number of locations as a strong storm batters the West. The information below from national weather service out of Sacramento, CA is just one of the many warnings that are posted through Tuesday.
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET… WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK- WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
* ELEVATION: ABOVE 5500 FEET.
* TIMING: CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY TODAY.
* WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 50 MPH THROUGH THE HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN PASSES.
* IMPACTS: DRIVING WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS FROM SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. SEASONALLY OPEN BACK COUNTRY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE.
The GFS suggests that nearly 18″+ of snow could pile up through PM Tuesday across the highest elevations Sierra Nevada/Northern Rockies.
Much Needed Precipitation
The best news is that this storm is going to bring some much needed precipitation to the West! Some folks may wind up with an inch or more, especially in the high elevations. Keep in mind that when talking snow, the general rule of thumb is a 10:1 ratio. Again, this is a general rule of thumb (snow accumulation is largely based on temperatures), but for every 1″ of liquid, there ‘could be’ 10″ of snow! The image below suggests that through AM Thursday, there could be 3″ to 4″ of liquid piling up in the high elevations of northern California, which would suggests nearly 30″ to 40″ of snow possible in some of these areas! This is certainly not out of the realm of possibility!
NOAA’s HPC 3 day precipitation forecast through AM Thursday suggests a decent amount and much needed moisture moving through these areas. It appears that some of it could be in the form of rain/thunder, but some could also be in the form of snow as a cold front blows through mid to late week.
This Weeks Thunder Threat
There will be a few impulses of energy floating northeast through the Upper Midwest over the next few days. This may also help to trigger shower and storm chances through the area until Wednesday Night/Thursday when cold enough air could turn the moisture into snow. The images below suggests the general thunderstorm chances through Wednesday.
Thunder Threat Monday
Thunder Threat Tuesday
Thunder Threat Wednesday
Midwest Snow Potential
The midnight GFS runs went a little hot and heavy on the snowfall potential across the Upper Midwest for Wednesday Night/Thursday, but the Monday morning run toned it down a little. The image below is the 12z GFS solution for snow through Thursday.
This is interesting… The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on a cluster of storms in the Caribbean, which has recently become Tropical Depression Eighteen.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK: AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK… THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…45 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Track
The National Hurricane Center has drawn up a forecast track into the weekend ahead, which is showing promise for those that live along the Eastern Seaboard. Soon-to-be-Sandy is showing signs of an easterly nudge, away from the East Coast. However, it is still too early to tell exactly what will happen when the storm slides north of Cuba.
Worst Case Scenario
The ECMWF (European Model) paints the worse case scenario with this storm by early next week. We could be looking at a fairly potent storm impacting the Northeast.
Best Case Scenario
The 12z GFS paints a slightly less intense situation for the East Coast. By AM Monday, it has the storm moving east into the open waters of the Atlantic…
Thanks for checking in on this Monday, have a great rest of your week!
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