Kevin Schneider

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Atypical weather conditions caused the Antarctic ozone hole to grow this year, according to NOAA and NASA. Don't worry though, they still expect the protective layer to recover later this century. Since the polar vortex was so strong this year, the ozone hole became the 7th largest in 48 years of monitoring. NASA &amp; NOAA said the hole would be larger without international cooperation to reduce ozone-destroying chemicals. The worst of the depletion occurred between September 7 and October 13. However, the hole is forming later and later in the year, which is a sign it's still healing. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-04 121532-1793819780832.png">The ozone depletion process begins when human-made compounds containing chlorine and bromine are released into the environment. Air currents carry the gasses up into the stratosphere, where they get broken down by UV radiation. The freed chloring and bromine is what enables ozone destruction. An unusually large polar vortex kept conditions favorable for depletion to occur in September and October. This hole isn't as big as the ones observed 10 to 20 years ago.

Jesse Kelley

Weather Leads to Hole in Ozone Layer

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Heavy rain continues across parts of Central and South Texas for the rest of the weekend. Moisture continues to pile up along the Gulf Coast from an area of low pressure in the Gulf. Luckily, a cold front is heading south to try to dry things out heading into next week. The best chances of rain and storms will be along the immediate coast.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-04 04-11-01-1791108693923.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Through Tuesday, Deep South Texas can see rainfall amounts between 3-6" of rain closer to the coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041145-1791108721890.png">Right on queue, another MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding has been issued in Texas again. This time, well to the south, where the heaviest of the rainfall is expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041315-1791108808781.png">Just like for the Southeast, Texas and the rest of the Southern Plains looks very soggy for the long term in the next 7-10 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-04 041343-1791108842343.png">For more on this forecast, tune in :30 past the hour for your full Central Regional.

Stalled Front Heightens Flood Risk Today

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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The effects of El Niño are being felt along the West Coast. Everything from unusual marine life, warmer ocean temperatures and storms that can accelerate coastal erosion. The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, has declared a state of emergency for the potential of this historic El Nino season. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2102087880307011690" src="https://x.com/CAgovernor/status/2102087880307011690"></div>There's another piece of the El Niño puzzle scientists are watching closely, a Kelvin wave moving through the Pacific. These waves can change sea levels and ocean conditions along the coast. Meteorologist Taban Sharifi spoke with Dr. Michael Jacox, a research oceanographer with NOAA, to better understand what these waves are and what they could mean for the West Coast during this El Nino. <div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/B6COLBbZxgE" start="0"></iframe></div><h3 style="text-align: start">What is a Kelvin wave?</h3>These waves are very different from the waves we think about crashing on the beach. These waves originate off the equator.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-22 161553-1790115735795.png">“They are very long and they travel huge distances,” said Jacox. These waves are important in the formation of El Niño. Jacox said, “The movement of these waves helps to transmit heat from west to east.”Jacox said, “These waves themselves, it’s not like a tsunami or something that you’re going to see this big wave come in and wash over your balcony. When they come through, they can raise sea level by 6 to 12 inches. So then when you have really high tides, you have storm surge, you have these other effects, they’re happening on top of this extra 6 to 12 inches of sea level. This is sort of one ingredient in the recipe that amplifies the risk from those other factors.”The biggest impacts will come around high tides and ongoing storms, increasing the risk of sea level rise and flooding. This current Kelvin wave is expected to be near San Diego in early to mid-October. You won’t be able to see it with the naked eye, but it will be detectable through ocean measurements.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2100404373692240294" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2100404373692240294"></div>Jacox wants people to know that Kelvin waves are not new. Scientists have known about Kelvin waves for 150 years. “The Kelvin waves are one piece of El Niño. El Niño will also change storm tracks, change wind patterns, and things like that. This is one we are able to track better than we have before, and we will be on top of watching it come through,” said Jacox.Stay with WeatherNation through the hurricane season and the rest of the potential effects of El Niño on the West Coast.

Tracey Anthony

Incoming Kelvin Wave for Southern California: One Piece of the El Nino Puzzle

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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The second largest reservoir in the United States now sits at its lowest level on record, following a dismal year for snowfall in the Central Rockies. Images released by NASA (top of page) show the contrast with 2017, which saw heavy snow during the preceding winter and thus, plentiful runoff during the spring and summer. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131721-1789759308683.png">Downstream, Lake Mead and the Parker Dam are both at their lowest levels at to-date over the past 30 years. Both are also fed by the struggling Colorado River. River managers have had to take action to keep water levels above the threshold necessary to generate power, including releasing extra water from upstream basins and cancelling timed releases set to help native species survive on the river.<h1>Snowpack Determines River Levels</h1>While the Southwest Monsoon has had a solid season in 2026, those hit or miss thunderstorms are only a drop in the bucket compared to the water supplied to the Colorado River from melting snow. The river is fed by numerous mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies, though most of the water comes from the mountains west of the continental divide in Colorado.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131656-1789760441419.png"></h2>Snowpack in Colorado got a late surge in the Spring but was still near record lows, especially in Southwestern Colorado. Many ski resorts were forced to shut down a week to a month ahead of normal. The melt-off of the snowpack was the second earliest on record. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 134932-1789760993718.png">The deficit of precipitation is tremendous in many areas, but western Colorado stands out with the bright red colors, indicating at least 2 feet of water missing over the last year. Other mountain ranges that send runoff into the Colorado are also lagging well behind, with deficits of 1-2 feet widespread across the west. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131534-1789761117664.png"><h1>Winter Outlook</h1>The surging El Niño could offer some help in the form of heavy precipitation. Wetter than average conditions are favored across much of the west, with near normal precipitation favored for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately after many years of below average precipitation, it would likely take many successive seasons to help the river return to normal. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 135826-1789761517713.png">

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

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For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div>While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-20 071102-1789911143975.png"><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño continues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 074742-1789566465249.png">El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png">

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

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If it felt like this summer was relentless and never-ending, it's true! A new report from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) compiled data from June-August 2026 and found that it was the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608">Warmest meteorological summer on record for the contiguous U.S.</a> It was also a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202608">record-setting warm August for the entire globe</a> and its oceans. The current El Niño pattern helped drive ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific to extreme levels and has all but shut down the Atlantic hurricane season so far.<h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202608">CREDIT: NOAA/NCEI</a></h1><h2>UNITED STATES Key Takeaways:</h2><ul><li>Warmest summer on record: The average temperature for meteorological summer (June–August) 2026 was the warmest for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 132-year record, exceeding the previous records, set in 1936 and 2021, by 0.4°F.</li><li>Warmest August on record: August 2026 averaged 75.6°F, the warmest August on record (1895–present) for the CONUS. Daytime maximum temperatures averaged 88.6°F across the CONUS, which was also the warmest on record.</li><li>August precipitation contrasts: While portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions recorded much-above-average August precipitation totals, large areas of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley received much-below-average precipitation.</li><li>Hawaiʻi exceptionally wet: Hurricane Lala brought heavy rainfall to Hawaiʻi, contributing to its second-wettest August on record (1991–present). Year-to-date precipitation averaged across the island chain was more than three feet above the 1991–2020 average (91.7% above normal), making it the wettest January–August period on record.</li><li>Drought expanded: Drought covered 59.1% of the CONUS on September 1, an increase of more than 10 percentage points from early August.</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Notable-Weathe-Climate-US-082026-1789070071157.png"><h2>Other Highlights:</h2><h3>Temperature</h3>The average temperature for the CONUS in August was 75.6°F, 3.5°F above the 20th-century average, while the average for meteorological summer (June–August) was 74.4°F, 3.0°F above average. Both August and summer were the warmest in the 132-year record.&nbsp;<img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/grid-ranks-tavg-202608.png" alt="Map of the U.S. showing temperature percentiles for August 2026 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue." title="Map of the U.S. showing temperature percentiles for August 2026 with warmer areas in gradients of red and cooler areas in gradients of blue.">August 2026 U.S. Mean Temperature Percentiles Map.Most of the CONUS experienced above- to much-above-average August temperatures, with near-average conditions confined to parts of the northern Plains and Midwest. Record-breaking warmth was widespread across the West, Southwest, southern Rockies and southwestern Plains, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula. California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado each set records for their warmest August average temperature. California and New Mexico also recorded their warmest average daytime maximum temperatures on record, while average nighttime minimum temperatures were record warm in California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico and Colorado.Summer saw widespread above-average temperatures. Much-above-average nighttime minimum temperatures spanned most of the CONUS, while average daytime maximum temperatures remained near average across much of the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Record-breaking heat extended across much of the Southwest, with Arizona (tied), New Mexico, Utah and Colorado each recording their warmest summer on record.Alaska’s average temperature during August was 52.4°F, 2.9°F above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the warmest third of the 102-year record. Alaska’s June–August average temperature was 51.6°F, 1.1°F above average and ranking in the warmest third of the record.Hawaiʻi’s average temperature during August was 70.8°F, 1.4°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking as the third-warmest August in the 36-year record. Hawaiʻi’s June–August average temperature was 69.4°F, 0.8°F above average and ranking in the warmest third of the record.<h2>Precipitation</h2>Total precipitation averaged across the CONUS in August was 2.30 inches, 0.32 inches below the 20th-century average, ranking in the driest third of the 132-year record and making it the driest August since 2000.<img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/grid-ranks-prcp-202608.png" alt="Map of the U.S. showing precipitation percentiles for August 2026 with wetter areas in gradients of green and drier areas in gradients of brown." title="Map of the U.S. showing precipitation percentiles for August 2026 with wetter areas in gradients of green and drier areas in gradients of brown.">August 2026 U.S. Total Precipitation Percentiles.Below-average precipitation was observed across portions of the West, Upper Midwest, and the broad region from the southern Rockies and southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, above-average precipitation fell across portions of the central tier, from central California to the Mid-Atlantic region.Statewide, Indiana and Ohio received their highest August precipitation on record, about twice their average August totals. Neighboring Illinois and West Virginia, along with New Jersey, also had much-above-average precipitation, receiving more than 50% above their average August totals. In contrast, Texas and Oklahoma received less than 30% of their average August precipitation, ranking as their third- and fifth-driest Augusts, respectively. Both states recorded their lowest statewide August precipitation totals since 2000.The CONUS received 8.11 inches of precipitation during summer, 0.21 inches below the 20th-century average, ranking in the driest third of the record. California received just 0.20 inches, 26% of its average summer precipitation, ranking as its fifth-driest summer on record and driest since 2002. In contrast, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia received much-above-average precipitation for the season.Alaska’s average precipitation was 4.57 inches in August, 0.20 inch above the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the middle third of the 102-year record. Alaska’s June–August precipitation averaged 10.67 inches, 0.67 inches above average, also ranking in the middle third of the record.Hawaiʻi received 16.01 inches of precipitation in August, 10.84 inches above the 1991–2020 average, making it the second-wettest August on record (1991–present). Hurricane Lala brought heavy rainfall to Hawaiʻi, with rainfall peaking at 43.54 inches at Laupāhoehoe on the Big Island. June–August precipitation averaged 28.24 inches across the island chain, 14.83 inches above average, ranking as the second-wettest summer on record. Year-to-date precipitation averaged 75.83 inches, 36.28 inches above average, making January–August the wettest such period on record.<h3>Drought</h3>According to the September 1 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="ext" href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx">U.S. Drought Monitor</a>, about 59.1% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 10.5 percentage points since early August. Drought persisted across much of the interior West, including portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Northwest, and Rockies. Drought expanded or intensified across the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest, as well as much of the southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South. In contrast, drought contracted or decreased in intensity across portions of the Southwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In Puerto Rico, more than three-quarters of the island was in drought, with more than 40% classified as extreme drought.<h1>GLOBAL August Highlights:</h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-202608">CREDIT: NOAA/NCEI</a><ul><li>August was the warmest on record for the globe, eclipsing the previous tied records of 2023 and 2024 by 0.14°F (0.08°C). The June–August three-month season was also record-warm.</li><li>Global sea surface temperature reached an all-time high in Aug.</li><li>El Niño conditions persisted during the month, driving record-high temperatures across vast areas of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.</li><li>Global land surface temperature was near-record warm for Aug and Jun–Aug.</li><li>The Northern Hemisphere experienced its warmest summer, while the Southern Hemisphere had a near-record warm winter.</li><li>The Arctic and Antarctic had a below-average sea ice extent.</li><li>Global tropical cyclone activity was above average with 19 tropical storms.</li></ul><img src="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/inline-images/Notable-Weather-202608.png" alt="Map of world showing locations of temperature highlights in August 2026 with text describing each event and title at top stating “Notable Weather and Climate Events: August 2026”. " title="Map of world showing locations of temperature highlights in August 2026 with text describing each event and title at top stating “Notable Weather and Climate Events: August 2026”. ">Map of global notable weather and climate events in August 2026.

NEW: 2026 Hottest U.S. Summer On Record

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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SEPT 1 - Today marks the beginning of meteorological fall. Meteorologists measure seasons using three-month periods for easier record-keeping, which means meteorological fall lasts from September 1 to November 30.<h2>A Look Back at Meteorological Summer</h2><h3>June 2026</h3>So how did this summer shape up for many Americans? Starting with June, the average temperature of the CONUS was 70.6°F. This ranks June 2026 as the third-warmest June on record, with temperatures 2.2°F above average.<h3><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-31 162715-1788215448140.png">Other Notable Events of June 2026</h3><ul><li>Record June tornado activity in the Midwest , with 91 tornadoes in Illinois and 69 in Indiana.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2068830531098436001" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2068830531098436001"></div></li><li>June 16 - 19: the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur produced 10-20 inches of rain along the central Gulf Coast.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2067812111733149721" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2067812111733149721"></div></li><li>June 29: a derecho moved across South Dakota producing 131 mph winds in Highmore.</li><li>Wildfires burned more than 120,000 acres in Utah and Colorado late June, including the Cottonwood Fire.</li></ul><h3>July 2026</h3>According to the<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national/202607"> NCEI</a> where these statistics were retrieved, July was also well above average. In fact, it was the hottest July on record, with an average temperature of 76.89°F, 3.3°F above normal.The average daily maximum temperature was 89.5°, and the average daily minimum temperature was 64.2°. <h3><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-31 163826-1788215986705.png">Other Notable Events of July 2026:</h3><ul><li>July 9-11: training thunderstorms in IL, KY, and MO caused widespread flash flooding.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2075761995668726223" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2075761995668726223"></div></li><li>July 12: multiple sites across ID, WY, UT, and MT set all-time high temperature record, including Salt Lake City (109°), Sheridan, WY (109°), Billings, MT (111°), Idaho Falls, ID (103°), and Miles City, MT (115°).</li><li>July 13 - 17: persistent rain in the Texas Hill Country produced 28" near Knippa, causing major flash flooding.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077913674120135043" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2077913674120135043"></div></li><li>July 27: An EF-3 tornado struck Appleton, WI, causing extensive damage</li></ul><h3>August 2026</h3>NCEI's climate report for August has yet to be released, but several notable weather events took place this month.<ul><li>August 11: A Midwest derecho produced widespread damaging winds and power outages.</li><li>Wildfires near Spokane, WA forced approximately 64,000 people to evacuate.</li><li>Persistent rain, flooding, and severe weather impacted portions of the Midwest throughout the month.</li></ul><h2>Meteorological Summer</h2>The Southwestern United States experienced some of the hottest and driest conditions of the summer. Cities like Aspen, Colorado, averaged temperatures about 7 degrees above normal.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-31 162726-1788218275334.png">Aspen also experienced its driest summer on record, receiving only 1.28 inches of rainfall. Several other cities recorded their driest summer on record as well, including Spokane, Washington; Los Angeles; and San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-31 162738-1788217624611.png">Meanwhile, in the Northeast, some locations experienced their wettest summer on record. Paducah and Cape Girardeau received more than 22 inches of rain this summer.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-31 162753-1788217686842.png">For more on what to expect this fall, be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest outlooks!

A Look Back At Meteorological Summer 2026

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Brittany Lockley

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NOAA is not changing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, continuing to forecast fewer tropical storms and hurricanes than what is typically seen during an average year.&nbsp;Forecasters say the overall pattern across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans still supports a quieter season. The ongoing influence of El Niño is expected to create stronger upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for developing tropical systems to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085032-1786027844121.png">NOAA continues to predict&nbsp;7 to 13 named storms&nbsp;this season. Of those,&nbsp;2 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, while&nbsp;0 to 2&nbsp;could reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.&nbsp;<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2085374878392172899" src="https://x.com/NOAA/status/2085374878392172899/photo/2"></div>The agency says there is a&nbsp;75% chance of a below-average season, a&nbsp;20% chance of near-average activity, and only a&nbsp;5% chance of an above-average season.&nbsp;Although the season has been relatively quiet, with only two Gulf storms in the Atlantic basin thus far (Arthur &amp; Bertha), NOAA&nbsp;cautions that the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning. Historically, tropical activity ramps up in August and peaks around mid-September before gradually declining through the fall.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085119-1786027891236.png">NOAA also reminds residents that seasonal forecasts are meant to estimate the total number of storms, not where they will track. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to produce significant damage and life-threatening impacts, regardless of whether the season ends below average.&nbsp;With several months remaining in hurricane season, emergency officials encourage people living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to have a hurricane plan in place, review evacuation routes, and keep emergency supplies ready in case a storm threatens their area.&nbsp;

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Are you ready for a total eclipse of...Spain?<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/TOTAL ECLIPSE GFX-1784071966889.png">We're now less than a month away from the next total solar eclipse. While this event won't be taking place in North America, millions are expected to flock to places like the Iberian Peninsula on August 12th to watch the total eclipse. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/ECLIPSE PATH-1784071975317.png">According to NASA, "A total solar eclipse will be visible in Greenland, Iceland, Spain, Russia, and a small area of Portugal, while a partial eclipse will be visible in Europe, Africa, North America, the Atlantic Ocean, Arctic Ocean, and Pacific Ocean." The eclipse will be a big moment for European space enthusiasts as the continent hasn't seen a total solar eclipse since 1999. A total eclipse occurs when the Moon sits between the Sun and Earth. The moon then casts a shadow onto a portion of the Earth's surface. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/eclipse explainer-1784071982699.png">Eclipses are one of those celestial events, it's either all or nothing. Unless you are in the path of 100% totality, you won't see much difference around you. So while cities like Madrid will have 99.96% of coverage, that will still look like regular daylight. As we inch closer to the day of totality, we'll have a better idea of the forecast.If you're unable to make it to this solar eclipse, there's another chance in 2027, however the path of totality stays out of the continental U.S. hitting places like southern Spain, North Africa (including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt), Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.The next U.S. total solar eclipse? That's not until August 12th 2045. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/next north american eclipse-1784071991364.png">

Brian Hartman

Next Total Solar Eclipse Is Less Than A Month Away

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Life-threatening flash flooding developed last week on Thursday and Friday in Missouri to the SSW of St. Louis. Parts of Iron and Reynolds counties recorded upwards of 6-12 inches of rain, leading to water surging into homes and businesses. This resulted in numerous water rescues by emergency personnel, over 90 in fact, but the great news is everyone has been accounted for! With that being said, more rain and storms will continue over the next few days.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2075552085597429997" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2075552085597429997"></div><h2> Forecast</h2>Heavy rain and storms will continue to slowly follow the frontal boundary south into Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 195751-1783907912974.png">Severe storms are possible each day, with damaging winds expected as the primary hazard, but large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-12_rse bams forecast-1783907918779.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Several inches of rain will be possible. With the grounds very saturated, it will not take much to cause more flooding. So remember, TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-12 195846-1783907935905.png">

Flooding Rain, Severe Storms Continue to Track Across the South

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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We're only half way through 2026 and Illinois has already broken its record for the most tornadoes in a single year. According to the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://stateclimatologist.isws.illinois.edu/climate-of-illinois/tornadoes-in-illinois/">Illinois State Climatologist</a>, the Land of Lincoln averages 54 tornadoes each year (1991-2020 data). As of June 21, the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/summary/">Storm Prediction Center</a> has the count at 196.<div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/reel/4404339883174541" data-width="500" src="https://www.facebook.com/reel/4404339883174541" style="display: flex; justify-content: center"></div>We spoke with Trent Ford, the Illinois State Climatologist, about why the state has seen an increase in tornadoes. See the full interview:<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nd534_navdI" start="0"></iframe></div><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-22 124536-1782153951050.png">The previous record was 142, set recently in 2024. In 2025, there was still more than double the yearly average. Last year saw 126 tornadoes in Illinois.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-22 093725-1782142687281.png">Courtesy: Illinois State ClimatologistIt's not surprising that June is an active month in Illinois. 63% of their tornadoes come between April, May and June.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-22 094023-1782142838106.png">Courtesy: Illinois State Climatologist<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2069080473997844793" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2069080473997844793"></div>

Patrick Crawford

Illinois Smashes Yearly Tornado Record in 2026

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<h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-marches-toward-artemis-iii-mission-in-2027-names-crew-members/">COURTESY: NASA</a></h1>This morning, NASA announced the four crew members who will be leading their Artemis III mission.NASA astronaut&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nasa.gov/people/randolph-komrade-bresnik/">Randy Bresnik</a> will serve as commander. European Space Agency astronaut&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Astronauts/Luca_Parmitano">Luca Parmitano</a> as pilot. NASA astronauts&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nasa.gov/people/nasa-astronaut-andre-douglas/">Andre Douglas</a> and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nasa.gov/people/frank-rubio/">Frank Rubio</a>, will serve as mission specialists.They also named NASA astronaut&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nasa.gov/people/bob-hines/">Bob Hines</a> will work and train alongside these four as a backup crew member.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2064385973366976916" src="https://x.com/NASA/status/2064385973366976916"></div>"Over the next year they will train for their mission, ensure the lessons learned from the prior crew are implemented, and assist in the development of the landers and operational procedures that will be necessary for their colleagues on future Artemis missions. Artemis III will be an extraordinary demonstration of what is possible when the greatest Aerospace companies across the United States alongside our European partners come together to showcase the technological might and ambition of the free world." said Jared Isaacman, NASA Administrator During Artemis III, NASA’s SLS (Space Launch System) rocket will launch the Orion spacecraft and its crew from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida to low earth orbit.After Orion systems checkouts, the spacecraft will, for the first time, demonstrate rendezvous and docking capabilities with commercial partners.While Artemis II brought ‘moon-joy’, Artemis III will bring ‘earth-joy’ by studying the earth’s atmosphere in ways we never have before."We will study earth's atmosphere, the environment around Orion during the mission, and the impact of space's influence within the Orion capsule... We'll be doing an observation campaign of the dynamic phenomena on the earth, on our sun and around the environment in space from Orion by using the processes we developed for Artemis II. Having the Artemis crew observe the earth, will be another great exercise for our teams to help guide the way for similar observations on the moon." "We'll be focused particularly on understanding our earth's atmosphere and the space environment in and around Orion through their observations. By observing earth's atmosphere and how space weather impacts it, we can better understand how to protect the critical space based technology there and all of that we rely on as well as our future astronaut crews travelling through that region." said Dr. Nicky Fox Associate Administrator, NASA Science. The mission will undertake a series of challenging tests in low earth orbit in 2027, essential for Artemis IV, the first planned crewed mission to the lunar south pole in 2028.

NASA Names Artemis III Astronauts

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NOAA has released <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season">their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season</a>. They are calling for a below normal season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. For probability, they predict a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. As a reminder, even below average seasons can have major impacts. All it takes is one storm making landfall for it to be a devastating season in the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 100455-1779379504114.png">NOAA sites several factors in their forecast, including the burgeoning El Ni­­ño, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The expectation for an El Ni­­ño event during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in keeping numbers lower than previous years, along with near normal sea surface temperatures, which have been much above average in recent seasons.The confidence in an El Niño developing this summer is quite high, but the remaining question is how strong will the event be? A weak El Ni­­ño typically has a lower impact on the tropics in the Atlantic, while a strong El Ni­­ño has a more consistent impact. Each updated forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows higher confidence in this year's El Ni­­ño being on the strong side.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 083641-1779374209515.png">Why does El Ni­­ño typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 063418-1775740706915.png">“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”If this year's name list looks familiar, it's the same one from the historically active 2020 season. There is one difference: the name "Laura" was retired after Hurricane Laura devastated the Louisiana coast. It was replaced with "Leah".<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065301-1775741404492.png"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-releases-first-hurricane-forecast-for-2026">Colorado State University's Tropical Weather Department has already released their early forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.</a> They are calling for a near normal to slightly below average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Even with a slightly below average season, major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so join us here on WeatherNation for Hurricane Prep Week! We'll be talking science with the experts, preparations and so much more. Be sure to check us out LIVE on<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/watch-us"> these platforms</a> or on our YouTube stream June 1-7!<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CcuXpHBtV9o" start="0"></iframe></div>

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

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MAY 2026: Meteorological spring officially ends on May 31st before giving way to meteorological summer (June-July-August). As we wrap up the season, we're taking a look back at May, typically the most active tornado month of the year in th United States, to see how this year compared to average.First, it's important to understand the baseline. April, May, and June, account for more than half (54%) of the average annual tornado totals in the U.S. May alone averages 268 tornadoes nationwide.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-31 142144-1780258994499.png"><h3>2026 vs. Average</h3>According to the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/summary/">SPC</a> this year we've had 166 tornadoes reported this May, which is about 100 less than an average year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-01 171050-1780355486229.png">That doesn't mean the month has been without impact. Several notable tornadoes occurred across the country:<ul><li>May 6 - Mississippi: An EF3 tornado tracked from Sibley to Monticello, injuring 23 people and destroying numerous homes, mobile homes, and vehicles. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2052569172065042760" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2052569172065042760"></div></li><li>May 17 - Nebraska: An EF3 tornado struck near St. Libory, damaging or destroying homes and a rural housing development.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2056185501854650512" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2056185501854650512"></div></li><li>May 19 - Texas: An EF3 tornado impacted Mineral Wells, damaging homes and businesses throughout the community.</li></ul>While May 2026 was less active than average by the numbers, a few statistics stand out: Oklahoma recorded just 2 tornado reports this month, compared to its May average of 32. States that had an above average May were: Nebraska, Iowa, Wyoming, Florida, and Mississippi.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-01 171054-1780355538677.png"> <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-31 141202-1780260236683.png">Looking at the past four years, Oklahoma has been below average in three of them. The exception was 2024, when the state recorded 54 tornadoes. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-31 140939-1780259933980.png">For more on what to expect for the rest of this severe weather season, be sure to join us on WeatherNation, we stream 24/7.

May 2026 Tornado Recap: Below Average, But Not Without Impact

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<h1>Heading to Churchill Downs this Weekend?</h1><h3>Derby Day Weather Outlook</h3>Current forecasts call for partly cloudy to partly sunny skies throughout the day on Saturday, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper 50s Fahrenheit. Morning temperatures are likely to be brisk, with overnight lows dipping to around 40°F, before gradual warming during the late morning and afternoon hours. Don't let those temperatures in the upper 50s fool you - with a north wind it should feel pretty cool for most of the day.Perhaps most importantly, the chance of rain appears low, representing a significant improvement from earlier in the week, when unsettled weather threatened to dampen the weekend’s flagship event. While isolated sprinkles cannot be completely ruled out, the forecast is expected to be mostly dry.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-02 041851-1777717143387.png"></h1><h1>Impact on Track Conditions</h1>Earlier rainfall during the week may have some lingering effects on the Churchill Downs surface. However, with Saturday shaping up to be dry and cool, track conditions are expected to improve steadily. A dry forecast on Derby Day allows the dirt track to firm up, reducing the likelihood of the kind of muddy, sealed surface that can dramatically influence race strategy and outcomes.For horsemen, a drying track generally leads to more predictable footing, which can be especially important in a 20‑horse field like the Kentucky Derby, where traffic, pace, and positioning are already major variables.<h1>Impact on the Horses</h1>From blazing sunshine to torrential rain, the conditions on Derby Day can significantly influence the race's outcome and the experience for horses, jockeys, trainers, and fans alike 🏇🏇 Precipitation: Track conditions are the most immediate and noticeable way weather affects the Derby. Rain can quickly turn the usually fast dirt track into a sloppy or muddy surface, altering the performance of certain horses and jockeys. Some horses, known as “mudders,” thrive in wet conditions, while others struggle. For instance, in the rain-soaked 2019 Derby, the muddy track played a role in a dramatic finish that included the controversial disqualification of Maximum Security. Handicappers and bettors pay close attention to forecasts, knowing that a change in weather could shift the odds significantly.🏇 Temperature is another critical factor. A warm &amp; humid race day can drain a horse's stamina, especially those not acclimated to the heat and humidity. Trainers often adjust their preparation and hydration strategies depending on the expected weather. Cooler temperatures, on the other hand, may benefit certain horses with more endurance and less speed.🏇 Wind also plays a subtle but real role in racing dynamics. A strong headwind down the backstretch can tire front-running horses earlier than expected, while a tailwind might benefit late closers. Though less obvious than mud or rain, wind direction and speed can change race strategies and even alter the pace of the race.In a race where every fraction of a second matters, weather isn’t just a background variable—it’s a potential game-changer. Whether the sun is shining or rain is pouring, the conditions on Derby Day can leave a lasting imprint.

Rain or Shine? Your 152nd Kentucky Derby Forecast

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Ready for the first snow of the season? While a few flakes have come down in the usual spots this fall (northern Great Lakes &amp; New England), a solid burst of measurable snow is possible toward the end of the week into next weekend. There's still a lot of time for big changes - so check bask in with us throughout the week.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103411-1794073162585.png">What We Know</h1>A big trough will dig down the Eastern U.S. - but the exact placement of the trough and it's cold air still need to be worked out. Forecast model ensembles all show a cold low pressure system, but vary with timing and strength.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103431-1794073182235.png">A larger trough will help several shortwaves swing through the Eastern half of the country, providing extra lift for heavy rain and snow. The timing and placement of these shortwaves could have a big impact on snow and heavy rain, as they provide an extra burst of energy that could pull Atlantic moisture into the cold air.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103422-1794073182237.png">What We Don't Know</h1><h2>Snow Totals</h2>The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) is highlighting a chance for winter impacts Friday into Saturday, with higher confidence in the mountains of New England and West Virginia. This shows low confidence in snow occurring, but this will change significantly throughout the week as models hone in on this system.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/wssi_p_Overall_Minor_f168 (1)-1794073714705.png">The ECMWF (Euro model) shows some solid snow chances for similar areas highlighted by the WPC (top of page), while the GFS is also showing potential for snowfall. The GFS tends to overestimate snow, as it turns icy conditions into snowfall more than it should, so take this with a grain of salt.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103501-1794073971038.png">Rain Totals</h2>As the trough begins to bring Atlantic moisture into the Northeast, the potential increases for heavy rain and snow. The ECMWF is showing rainfall totals between 1-4 inches for parts of the Northeast, with the heaviest rain from Thursday into Friday. These totals could change significantly with the timing and placement of the lows.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 103508-1794074059757.png">Bottom line: there is increasing confidence an impactful cold system will cruise the the East toward the end of next week, but details remain fuzzy. We'll keep you updated with changes and a fine tuned forecast as the event draws near. Sometimes models can completely bust in the 5-10 day window, so don't run to get bread and milk just yet.

East Coast Snow? What We Know About the Late Week System

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The same system that has produced unsettled weather across much of the country is still impacting the East Coast, bringing a surge of moisture into New England. The front will be exiting the Northeast Saturday morning. However, it brought rainfall totals over 6 inches in Massachusetts. The heaviest rain will be moving out, but an area of low pressure will still bring chilly rain to the Northeast throughout the rest of Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 113420-1794076472352.png">The heaviest rainfall, according to our in-house forecast models, remains over portions of CT, RI, and MA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 113507-1794076517572.png">For more on your Eastern Regional Forecast, tune in to WeatherNation :10 past the hour.

Heavy Rain Brings Flooding Concerns to Northeast as Storm System Moves East

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A strong trough of low pressure moving through Mexico will draw abundant Gulf moisture into parts of Texas through Monday, leading to heavy downpours that will likely lead to flash flooding. Severe storms can't be ruled out either, as the low provides plenty of wind shear.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-07 04-21-19-1794050622372.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Timing</h1>As the low swings through Mexico into Texas, expected several rounds of heavy rain. Scattered showers will turn into more widespread, heavy precipitation from the Trans-Pecos down the Rio Grande through Southern Texas through Saturday afternoon and evening. By Sunday, several rounds of these intense downpours are expected to move across Southern Texas, with rainfall rates of 1-2"+ per hour. As the low begins to stretch and move over Texas on Monday, scattered showers will begin to taper off into the afternoon and evening. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-07 04-21-39-1794050630848.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Rain &amp; Flood Potential</h1>Forecast models are showing potential high-end rainfall totals, which would mean higher impacts if they are correct. The Baron Model is likely overdoing how widespread the heavy rain will be, however, bullseyes of 9-12" of rain (like the model shows in southern Texas) can't be ruled out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 042028-1794050580547.png">The ECMWF (Euro) model also shows higher end potential for the rainfall, with 6-10" of accumulation south of San Antonio. Prepare for significant flash flooding if you live or plan to travel to these areas, just in case the heaviest rain falls near you.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 042015-1794050580548.png">The WPC has issued multiple excessive rain (flood) outlooks through Monday, with Sunday's outlook increased to a level 2 (slight) risk. A slighrisk indicates scattered flash flooding is expected, with a significant flood event possible. This outlook could be upgraded. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-07 04-22-15-1794050644939.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The time is now to prepare for flooding! Keep important documents in areas that will remain dry during a flood on your property, clear gutters and drainage areas, and make sure you're aware of the status of your flood insurance. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 042235-1794050590106.png">

Texas Flood Threat This Weekend

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Hurricane season isn’t over yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring twp areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, and the newest tropical storm in the Central Pacific. <h2>Atlantic: Possible Subtropical Development Northeast of the Bahamas</h2>An area of low pressure is moving east across the Atlantic, south of Bermuda. According to the NHC, the system could acquire subtropical characteristics as it drifts over the central Atlantic. However, the window for development is limited. By the end of the weekend, the system is expected to move into an environment less favorable for organization.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 040716-1794050037786.png">While the low isn't expected to become a hurricane, it will combine with a mid-latitude cyclone as it moves towards Northern Africa. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-07 041439-1794050144866.png"><h2>Pacific: Pena Forms Friday in the Central Pacific</h2>Tropical Storm Pena formed on Friday Southeast of Hawaii. This is the fifth named storm in the Central Pacific Basin this season, which beats the previous record for named systems in a season on record (3). This storm will stay south of Hawaii, with limited impacts to the island chain. Increased winds and waves are expected through the weekend.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/pic6-1794002534914.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/1-1794020300612.png">Hurricane Season Isn’t Over Yet</h2>Although tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30. For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropics Update: Pena Forms In The Central Pacific;One Area in the Atlantic Basin

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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The calendar has now turned to month of November and that means the beginning of the wet season for cities like Seattle and Portland. An atmospheric river setup is likely for the West Coast for the next several days. So for a refresher, what is an atmospheric river? An atmospheric river is a large plume of moisture being transported from deep tropical Pacific moisture northward to the West Coast.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/BARON 5-1793935449125.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Over the next few days, several lows forming near Alaska are sliding south and slamming into SW Canada and NW Washington State. Through Monday, the Olympia Peninsula and Northern Washington is expecting to see rainfall totals between 3-6 inches. The Portland Metro will see up to an inch with most of the moisture missing them to the north. The Cascades will see some heavier snow this weekend too!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/BARON 5-1794020517468.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/1-1794020528327.png"><h1>LONG TERM WEST</h1>Long range models are hinting at some of these Pacific waves finally diving south into California and for the Four Corners by the end of next week. The Weather Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Outlook is showing very deep green over the western third of the country. Heavy rain, snow, and strong winds could be a possibility as we move into the middle of November.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/1-1794020568559.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2-1794020590072.png">This is a developing story and we will be here following the latest for you on WeatherNation!

Atmospheric River Setup for the Northwest

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Residences along the Ocoee (TN) and Toccoa (GA) River have had to leave their homes early Thursday morning as heavy caused catastrophic flooding overnight into the morning hours. Up to 10 inches of rain fell in parts of Northern Georgia Wednesday evening, leading to a surge of water in the Ocoee, hitting a record height of over 18 feet. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-05 073059-1793889084159.png">Residents along the river are being evacuated and the red cross has opened a shelter. The flooding will likely continue to shift down stream with major impacts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-05 073047-1793889084161.png">More than 11 inches of rain fell in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Northern Georgia late Wednesday into early Thursday, flooding several areas before running off into the Toccoa/Ocoee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-05 074333-1793889818485.png">

Flash Flood Emergency For Parts of Georgia and Tennessee

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Florida has seen heavy rainfall and lots of flooding over the last few days. In fact, Melbourne, FL saw its wettest day EVER on record with 11.51" on Monday. Watch the storms train over many of the same areas Monday morning:<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-03 07-33-35-1793720142845.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Monday beat out the old record of 10.23" in 2017 with Irma making landfall! We will see things taper off, but there will still be some localized areas of heavy rainfall for Tuesday. Any area that saw the catastrophic flooding Monday will be very sensitive to any additional rain today.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2117632897909735452" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2117632897909735452?a=EuxY1xZfhVig7RAXyus&amp;s=20"></div>In total, many parts of Florida have seen over 20" of rain since Sunday. Picking this up in 48-72 hours time was the main reason for the heavy flooding we've been seeing.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-04 062641-1793791669426.png">Overall, we've already seen totals well over that. In fact, in Brevard County, a flash flood emergency was issued on Monday morning (since has expired). These exceedingly rare advisories are especially dangerous. If one is ever issued in your area, you need to seek higher ground immediately.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 104349-1793634469029.png">Thankfully, coverage is likely to be more isolated across most of Florida through tonight.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/11041-1793818717680.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Check in with us on WeatherNation at :10 past the hour for your full eastern U.S. breakdown!

Torrential Downpours Batter the Sunshine State

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The Southwest is getting active once again with chances of flash flooding and river flooding. Friday, Las Vegas experienced some strong storms resulting in flooding and large hail falling across downtown. This was only the first of three low pressure system moving through the region this weekend, with the final two expected to deliver even heavier rain and mountain snow.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/VO_103026_RSW_HENDERSON, NV_GREAT VIDEO OF FLOODING WITH CAR STUCK_FB_MS_E103026-1793411988779.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Down south, heavy rain coming down in short periods of time created scenes like these. Unfortunately, folks having to be rescued from the floodwaters.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2116621232905101602" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2116621232905101602"></div>Through Sunday, the worst of it struck. WPC had issued a MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding. It definitely materialized, as we got a TON of flood reports over the last 24 hours across the Southwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 050841-1793621537970.png">This heavy rain led to more shocking video out of the region, as the water was rushing through areas near Payson, AZ!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2117084682307391508" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2117084682307391508"></div>A PDS Flood Warning was even issued in southwest Colorado with expected river levels. While receding, we still saw a record-breaking crest at the San Juan River.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 045235-1793620396759.png">Cities across Arizona saw a quarter of their yearly rainfall in just one day! 48-hour totals took some of the cities above 7 inches which is an absurd amount of rain to pick up in the Southwest!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 050517-1793621275056.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation, we've got you covered on all the impacts out west.

Jackie Brown

Recapping the Significant Flooding in the Southwest

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Time to wax the skis and grab the winter gear; skiing is back for the season in the United States. Arapahoe Basin became the first major ski area in the country to open for the season on October 28th, with Keystone just behind, opening on Friday the 30th.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-01 103324-1793554416103.jpg"> Snow moved across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, dropping 9" for Mammoth Mountain in California.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-01 182656-1793582843471.png"> That energy is pushing farther east. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place through today across the Rockies. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/WINTER ALERTSSS -1793648263033.png">Thankfully, for the ski areas open this weekend, they have very high base elevations, with Keystone around 9,300 feet, but A-Basin and Wolf Creek are even higher, over 10,000 feet! Snow will start coming down heavily through Sunday morning, persisting well into Monday. Gusty winds could cause issues, however, with gusts over 40-50 mph possible at higher elevations. Chair lifts may need to be shut down during the gustiest of times.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/FORECCCSSSS-1793648343692.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy snow will fall where ski resorts and areas have yet to open, but it will provide a nice base for higher elevation areas. Mountain travel could be difficult at times this weekend, especially in higher elevations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 051631-1793621806025.png">

Skiing Opens in the Rockies, Heavy Snow on the Way

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Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, the candy receptacle is made or purchased, and physical conditioning is in peak form! It's the week of Halloween, which has all of the spooky lovers in a good mood. The only thing that might get in the way is Mother Nature.<h1>TREATS</h1>Here is how temperatures are shaping up as kids are heading out for some goodies. Jackets will likely be needed with costumes across the Northeast and the Northwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1793394324970.png">Roughly, a line from the Front Range into the High Plains should be good to go if the timing/placement of this ridge is nailed down. That means we just have to prepare for the festivities, with some help from the Red Cross<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080023-1793024061010.png">TRICKS</h1>This is where things get...tricky. Right now, the two different areas that are of some concern are the Southern Plains and the West. Another strong trough will pour onshore late in the week, keeping things out west pretty active. Ahead of that trough, plenty of moisture will get pulled north out of the Gulf, which could help fuel stronger storms, depending on how things come together.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/10313-1793484418419.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Along and downstream of that feature rippling through the Midwest and eventually the Mid-Atlantic might want to watch the timing on things, just to be sure an umbrella doesn't need to become a part of the costume too. It's too soon to know if it'll be a washout that affects plans all day or splash-n-dash storms that pick on a particular timeframe.<h1>FALL BACK</h1>Also, remember to set the clocks back an hour going into Sunday. Otherwise, you'll be waking up an hour early when you could have been sleeping off the candy coma instead. Might be a good weekend to replace the batteries in the smoke detectors and weather radios, too!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-31 154707-1793484346746.png">Or maybe take the day to ease into a new way of life, with sunsets closer to 5:00. Although latitude has something to do with it, location within your timezone has a lot to say too.

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

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A surge of tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Vance (EPAC) is increasing the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Texas as the state prepares for Halloween.&nbsp;Even a tornado near Uvalde, TX Thursday gave locals a scary sight.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115960860254642544" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115960860254642544"></div>Moisture streaming northward from the remnant tropical system is expected to interact with Gulf moisture, creating favorable conditions for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some communities could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain, increasing the potential for flooding in vulnerable areas.&nbsp;Flood watches are in effect for the western half of Texas.Keep up with WeatherNation LIVE for the latest on Flash Flood Warnings: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dDyjHc8DkA">YouTube LIVE STREAM</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-30 070255-1793365386255.png">Most of the storms will move from West to East Texas by Friday night. After a brief break, a wave of energy from the Four Corners will sweep through early Saturday. Trick-or-Treating should be fine for much of West Texas, as it should all move out by Saturday night. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/tx-1793365981551.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Additional rainfall totals of up to an inch are possible across parts of the region, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms repeatedly develop over the same locations. These heavier downpours could overwhelm drainage systems and cause rapid rises in creeks, streams and low-lying roadways.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-30 070850-1793365759127.png">Flash flooding remains one of the most dangerous weather-related threats because water levels can rise quickly, sometimes with little warning. Motorists should never attempt to cross water-covered roads, as even relatively shallow moving water can sweep vehicles away.&nbsp;

Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

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NEW HOME, JAMAICA - October 28, 2025, will be remembered as the day the island of Jamaica changed forever. Hurricane Melissa slammed into the western side of the island with 185 mph sustained winds, flattening areas of the island. Agencies have been reporting that insurance payments have been slow over the past year, leaving a shortfall of capital heading into what is the peak season for tourism there.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065457-1793192735289.png">Hurricane Melissa devastated islands in the Caribbean in late October in 2025. Four months later, the National Hurricane Center has completed the post-storm analysis of Melissa, finding that the winds reached 190 mph, tying it with Hurricane Allen for the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin's history.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 070552-1793192770453.png">The folks at the National Hurricane Center concluded that Melissa reached a central pressure of 892 mb at its strongest, which lashed the western side of Jamaica with high winds, incredible storm surge, and prolonged rainfall. All of these factors contributed to 95 known fatalities as of the report, released February 26, 2026.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095044-1772038470377.png">The origins trace back to a tropical wave emerging off of the western coast of Africa on October 13th. By midnight on the 26th, Melissa had rapidly developed into a major hurricane. With weak steering, the forecast track was HIGHLY uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the forecast track was incredibly accurate by the National Hurricane Center (below)<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095418-1772038476153.png">What's going to gain more attention is the upgrade to 190 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center, even though they didn't directly observe the winds specifically:<blockquote>"Based on a blend of satellite estimates, flight-level wind and dropsonde data"</blockquote>This ties it with Hurricane Allen from 1980, which was the previous strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Basin.In March, the World Meteorological Organization <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/wmo-retires-the-name-melissa-following-devastating-impacts-last-fall">announced they were</a> retiring the name in the wake of the devastation. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065440-1793193323670.png">The storm also produced the strongest wind gust ever recorded: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-melissa-produces-strongest-gust-recorded-in-a-hurricane">Watch Here</a>Official Report from the National Hurricane Center: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf">READ IT HERE</a> Josh Morgerman reliving Melissa: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2009330402310381611?s=20">WATCH IT HERE</a>

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

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This week, the ocean is coming to low-lying areas near you! King tides are back for the next several months, which will lead to sunny day ocean water flooding for vulnerable areas at times. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115058432051126377" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115058432051126377"></div> The exact highest tide will vary for different locations, but through the end of the next several months, when the moon is nearly full, high and low tides will be elevated. In 2026 into 2027, this will occur during the end of the month, through January.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115783209619210352" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115783209619210352"></div><h1>What Causes King Tides?</h1>The Earth's orbit around the Sun is offset a bit, meaning the distance to the Sun varies throughout the year. The Earth's closest point to the Sun occurs in early January, meaning the gravitational effects of the Sun on the oceans increase through early January. When the moon is full and closer to the Earth (perigee), this adds another pull of gravity and increases the tides further. This will occur toward the end of October, November, December, and January, increasing the range of tides.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 053902-1792843085873.png">In October, the full moon occurs on the 26th while the moon's closest point to Earth happens just a few days later. This will help create some of the highest tides of the year for many areas along the U.S. East Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 054717-1792843101424.png"><h1>East Coast</h1><h2>Florida</h2>Coastal flood alerts are in effect for the Atlantic Coast of Florida, all the way up into Virginia. High tide flooding could leave vulnerable areas under a foot or two of water at times, leading to various impacts, including closed roads.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 1-1793279864445.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115171683250344379" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115171683250344379"></div>Florida's highest tide cycles of the fall season will occur in October and November, with the highest tides of October's cycle happened Tuesday morning. Low-lying areas will have several rounds of flooding this week, so it's best to avoid low-lying areas during high tide times.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 2-1793279914610.png"><h2>Carolinas</h2>The latest forecast is showing the tides are decreasing in height over the next few days. While this is good news, if you are traveling along the coast stay vigilant driving through flood waters!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 3-1793279979406.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 055652-1792844169803.png">Mid-Atlantic &amp; Northeast</h2>Minor coastal flooding is expected in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the October cycle of king tides. Low-lying areas could see flooding inundate areas with about a foot of water. In New England, the highest tides should occur during the November and December cycles.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061926-1792844685757.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061930-1792844699823.png"><h1>West Coast</h1><h2>California</h2>California is already experiencing elevated tides due to El Niño and a surge of warm water up the coast, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/incoming-kelvin-wave-to-southern-california-one-piece-of-the-el-nino-puzzle">known as a Marine Kelvin Wave</a>. Several large wave events this fall have damaged numerous homes along the coast as well. As a result, King Tide impacts in California could be more significant this season compared to past years. Alerts have been issued from San Diego up past the Bay Area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 5-1793280107889.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063244-1792845194824.png">The highest tides of the October cycle occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, though the highest tides of the year are expected in December.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 4-1793280080491.png"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061945-1792844713149.png">Oregon &amp; Washington</h2>The highest tides of the year for Washington and Oregon are expected later this year as well, during the December high tide cycle. A full "supermoon" will aid in making these tides quite impactful.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063406-1792845257233.png">

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Week

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Things are getting active again after a long break from storms in the Midwest. A developing area of low pressure looks like it might have all of the ingredients to spin up a few tornadoes, some of which could even be strong later this afternoon.<h1>SETUP</h1>As this area of low pressure comes together, storms will ignite in the heat of the day. While it won't be Spring- or Summer-like energy to tap into, it looks like it will be just enough as temperatures make a run at record highs in Wisconsin.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041715-1793183302202.png">The biggest concerning ingredient is the amount of wind shear present, with winds at the surface out of the south or even southeast, turning to the southwest with height.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041748-1793182843267.png">Storms are expected to be organized shortly after firing in the afternoon. Because of the high amounts of shear, all modes of severe weather will be on the table. That includes the potential for an EF-2+ tornado. Have ways to get alerts as we go through our Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 063732-1793191060076.jpg"><h1>Timing</h1>Because we're expecting storms to fire near the surface low, they might go up and become severe in a hurry. The severe threat is active now into the evening hours.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/BARON 5-1793224753314.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Cities Today

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After becoming a hurricane last Friday, Vance has weakened to a tropical storm. It's moved far enough away from the Mexican coast to take most of the winds, but some rain continues to graze some parts of the coastline. Its slow movement will mean long-lasting coastal wave action and erosion potential. The good news is, it should weaken as it enters an unfavorable environment early this week. A landfall in Mexico late this week is possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035927-1793181579785.png">Tropical Storm Olana formed in the Central Pacific Ocean this week but has since become post-tropical. This storm is west of the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaii can see multiple inches of rain from the moisture from Olana through Saturday. Here's the latest forecast from our Global American model.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035952-1793181606298.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-27 192512-1793150722562.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

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