A Look at the Frequency of a Hurricane Hitting Coastal Locations

news image
Special Stories
21 Aug 2018 7:32 AM
[GOES-16 geocolor image of Hurricane Irma passing the eastern end of Cuba at on September 8, 2017.] From NOAA Wondering whether a hurricane will affect your town is a good question but one that can’t be accurately answered on a seasonal basis. Every mile of the U.S. Gulf and East coast is vulnerable to a hurricane, but there are locations that have higher odds of being hit any given year. NOAA's National Hurricane Center uses an analysis tool that quantifies those chances called the hurricane return period.  It’s the frequency at which a hurricane can be expected to pass within 50 nautical miles of a specific location. For example, a return period of 20 years for a major hurricane means that on average during the previous 100 years, a Category 3 or stronger hurricane passed within 50 nautical miles of that location about five times. Looking forward one could expect five Category 3 or stronger hurricanes within that 50 nautical mile radius during the next 100 years. "Regardless of the odds, everyone living or vacationing in a hurricane-prone location has to be prepared" says Ken Graham, National Hurricane Center director. How does your location fare? Take a look at the maps shown. The first map above depicts the return period for a hurricane of any category on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the second map below is for a major hurricane (Category 3 and higher). The areas with the highest return periods for a hurricane of any category are coastal North Carolina, South Florida and Southeast Louisiana, about every 5 to 7 years. Coastal New England has the lowest return period at 30 to 50 years. For major hurricanes, the return period is longer. To take a deeper look into historical hurricane tracking data, NOAA's National Ocean Service provides an online tool that allows users to track the paths of historic hurricanes. It also provides links to detailed reports on the life histories and effects of U.S. tropical cyclones since 1958, with additional U.S. storm paths traced as far back as 1851. Edited for WeatherNation by Meteorologist Mace Michaels
All Weather News
More
Fronts Continue To Spark Severe Weather Across the Plains

Fronts Continue To Spark Severe Weather Across the Plains

A cold front that brought record lows to the

18 Jul 2025 10:40 PM
Extreme Heat Impacts for the East Coast & South

Extreme Heat Impacts for the East Coast & South

Extreme heat continues to impact several area

18 Jul 2025 10:05 PM
Flooding Threat Remains Elevated in the East

Flooding Threat Remains Elevated in the East

A cold front pushing through the Eastern Seab

18 Jul 2025 9:10 PM
EF-2 Firenado from the Deer Creek Fire in Utah

EF-2 Firenado from the Deer Creek Fire in Utah

A fire tornado was spotted near La Sal, Utah

18 Jul 2025 7:30 AM
Tropical System Brings Flood Risk to the Central Gulf

Tropical System Brings Flood Risk to the Central Gulf

Time has run out for notable tropical develop

18 Jul 2025 3:05 AM
Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy

13 Jul 2025 12:50 PM
Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

Friday was another busy day with severe weath

12 Jul 2025 8:00 PM