A strong upper-level trough along with monsoonal moisture advecting northward will hone in on southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico over the coming days. Both a flood threat and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible.
A Flood Watch covers much of western Colorado on Thursday, including the San Juan Mountains, where model guidance indicates the higher rain totals.
The latest model data suggests the heaviest rain will be focused over the same locations for the next few days. Flooding may remain a concern through the rest of the week, with an extension of alerts possible.
With upper-level support, some thunderstorms may become organized with an increasingly severe threat. Straight-line damaging winds would be the main hazard.
Hints of winter are also in the forecast! Models are indicating that snowfall will occur on the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains and the Front Range.