Chris Tomer

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<p>A strong July cold front is racing through the Northern Rockies and Dakotas. Cities that were in the 90s are now in the 60s. That cold front and temperature contrast also sparks a severe weather risk.</p><p>Look at the big cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 180820-1752538107289.png"></p><h1>Severe Weather Outlook</h1><p>SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Expect damaging wind gusts (75mph+).</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 101931-1752596421929.jpg">The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (yellow color) through Wednesday across Chicago, IL, Madison, WI, Denver, CO, and Cheyenne, WY.  Watch out for large hail and damaging wind gusts.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer plains svr risk day 2-1752607063797.jpg"></p><h1>Forecast Timing</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer plains futurecast-1752606861886.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Stay with WeatherNation for the latest.</p>

Strong July Cold Front Sparks Severe Weather

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Kevin Schneider

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<p style="text-align: justify">The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the chance for tropical formation late Monday. There's now about a 40% chance in the next 48 hours of formation. This area is denoted the title AL93, or Invest 93L, since they're running the hurricane models on this area of low pressure. The development of tropical characteristics, however, may only matter in name alone.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer invest futurecast-1752602957570.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast Models</h1><p>Since this is an area of investigation, there are forecast models, known as spaghetti plots. According to the NHC, this system is forecast to move west across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday before moving into the northeastern Gulf mid-week. Conditions remain favorable for additional development, and if it remains offshore, it could become a tropical depression later this week.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer invest spag-1752606518967.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Forecast Factors</h1><p>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain. An area of high pressure will slide west by Thursday, helping steer our system to the north, into land. Where that happens is still up in the air. It will depend on the strength of both the system and the high.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer invest steering-1752603031336.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 2-1752495335806.png"></p><p>Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. However, with the presence of some elevated wind shear, conditions won't be the richest for development. That interaction with wind shear and some lingering dry air could help limit any rapid development.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 055224-1752580353462.jpg">As we continue to iron out the details of this system, check back with the forecast, especially if you have interests along any of the Gulf Coast states.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p>

Monitoring "Invest 93L" Near Florida

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Tracey Anthony

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<p>It has been 10 days since the devastating floods swept through the Texas Hill Country, and our hearts remain with the communities still recovering. And before they could catch their breath more rain inundated the same region once again. <span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)">Over the past three days, torrential rains overwhelmed rivers, roads, and communities from July 12 to July 14.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1944509640995197415" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1944509640995197415"></div><p><span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)">Emergency services were stretched thin, and </span>water rescues<span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)"> were carried out across the region. In </span>San Saba County<span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)">, a flash flood emergency was declared, and </span>search operations along the Guadalupe River were temporarily suspended<span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)"> due to dangerous conditions.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1944736134921105772" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1944736134921105772"></div><p>The Weather Prediction Center has kept a <strong>Slight </strong>risk along the Big Bend of Texas. Localized heavy rain will be possible on top of the already saturated soils, bringing more flooding concerns.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 1-1752582449839.png">Rain Forecast</h1><p>We're forecasting a few pockets of 1-3 inches of rain accumulation.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer tx rain forecast-1752603263750.jpg"></p><p><strong>Flood Watches</strong> continue for Texas for the potential of continued heavy rain. Additional watches have been issued for eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas too.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 4-1752582717953.png">Although this week shows a significant drying trend, there will be some very isolated rain potential, mainly during the afternoon hours.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 3-1752582590392.png"></p><p></p><p>Tune in to WeatherNation for live updates throughout the hour.</p>

Flash Flooding Threat Continues in Texas

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<p>A cold front pushing through the Eastern Seaboard was responsible for dozens of reports of flash flooding on Monday, so much so that the Governor of New Jersey declared a State of Emergency for flash flooding.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1945122429342282186" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1945122429342282186"></div><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-14 205829-1752548331902.png">The flash flooding in the Northeast on Monday led to airport delays at Newark, JFK, and LaGuardia. Many areas broke numerous records for the day.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 061632-1752581880381.jpg">With so much rain falling in such a short amount of time, area creeks and rivers jumped quickly. The Leutenant Run Creek in Petersburg, VA more than doubled it's height in less than 2 hours. That lead to multiple water rescues and evacuations with a Flash Flood Emergency issued.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-15 061649-1752582619979.jpg">MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE</h1><p>We could see a renewed round of storms this afternoon, which could bring us right back to where we started. These storms will only be around the Virginia-West Virginia area, but we've seen what some topographical features can do with heavy rain.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/tomer ne execs day 1-1752603138701.jpg">Our next system pushes in from the west and will bring a more widespread threat of heavy rainfall. The one difference between Monday's rain and Wednesday-Thursday's batch is it won't be everywhere. But anyone that gets caught under one of these storms will have to contend with the efficient rain producers and slow movement of them. Here's what it could look like over the next few days:</p><p></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-15 06-35-31-1752582963362.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><blockquote><p><br>.</p></blockquote><p></p><h3></h3><p></p>

Torrential Rain Swamps the Northeast Monday

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<p>High pressure is moving off the California coast and building into the Northwest. <strong>Heat alerts </strong>range from the deserts of California and Nevada to the Pacific Northwest. <span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)"> </span>California and Arizona to Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico<span style="color: rgb(66, 66, 66)">, millions are facing dangerous heat. </span></p><h1>SOUTHWEST</h1><p>Whether record temperatures are broken or not, most of the area will experience temperatures above average by 5-10 degrees to start the week! Salt Lake City, UT could reach 100° for the first time in 2025. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 2-1752584131731.png"></p><h1>NORTHWEST</h1><p>Temps will be going from Well above average to below average for cities like Spokane and Missoula! Spokane will see a high of 95° on Monday, but on Tuesday the high will dip down to 79°. Missoula, Montana, will jump from 94° on Monday to just 70° on Tuesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 3-1752584144002.png">Over the next few days we will be looking back to the East for the next round of summer heat wave impacts. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 4-1752584235942.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Web 5-1752584243924.png"></p>

Dangerous Heat Impacting the Western U.S.

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<p>Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy rain is expected to inundate parts of the state from the end of the weekend into the middle of the upcoming week. Rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6" in Central and South Florida, with higher totals likely for areas that see multiple heavy downpours. Some locations may end up with 7-10" of rain by the time this storm system moves out.</p><p>This system could develop into our next tropical system. Read more on the tropical discussion here:  <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/medium-range-hurricane-forecast-favors-gulf-csu-updates-seasonal-forecast">Atlantic Basin Tropical Update</a><br><br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 063516-1752323878845.png">A mid-level low-pressure system will approach the coast from the Atlantic by Sunday, moving over the state on Monday, creating widespread heavy rain.</p><h1>Forecast</h1><p>Strong storms are expected to fire up in the afternoons, but evening and overnight storms are possible thanks to the extra lift created by the low. Monday looks quite wet, especially in Central and South Florida.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 08-13-49-1752498076656.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Outlooks</h1><p>Flood outlooks have been issued from Sunday through Wednesday, with additional heavy downpours possible after Wednesday as well. Avoid low-lying areas when heavy rain begins to fall and, if flash flood warnings are issued, seek higher ground!</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-14 09-00-09-1752498053476.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>Friday was another busy day with severe weather and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for Davenport, IA after they picked up over four inches of rain. The winds from Friday's storms were over 70 plus mph!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055745-1752321471706.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>Friday's leftover storms will be the catalyst for additional shower and thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Saturday, as will the frontal boundary that moves into the region. The surface low could also help to spur a few supercells, capable of producing a tornado or two in eastern Michigan, primarily from the late morning through mid-afternoon.</p><h1><strong>SATURDAY</strong></h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/FORECAST-1752352202968.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/PIC 1-1752352628146.jpg">Rainfall rates will remain high, with 1-2" of rain per hour possible. This could lead to rain totals surpassing 4-5 inches in some areas that see multiple rounds of storms or slow moving storms. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 055618-1752321436549.png"></p>

Patrick Crawford

Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h2>How Hurricanes Form:</h2><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/04/PKG_051322_TRT 1.10_HOW HURRICANES FORM_JACKIE BROWN_EM_E080322-1682529809138.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">What does a tropical system need to form? There are 3 main ingredients. Warm water, ample moisture and low wind shear.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Tropical systems need warm water to form.&nbsp; Sea surface temperatures of at least 79 degrees Fahrenheit are needed for development. Typically, these warm waters are found between the equator and the tropic of cancer.</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Tropical storms or hurricanes need a continuous up-flow of warm and wet air to create clouds and rain. One factor that can limit the available moisture is dust. Saharan dust that comes off of Africa can dry out a storm causing it to weaken.&nbsp;</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The last ingredient is low wind shear. Shear refers to the change in wind speed or direction with height. As a storm develops vertically, a low wind shear environments allows the storm to stay intact&nbsp; and&nbsp; strengthen. With high shear, the system becomes tilted and weakens. Under these conditions… a system can intensify and live on…potentially becoming a major destructive hurricane.</span></p><h2>What is Saharan Dust &amp; How Does it Impact the Tropics?</h2><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/04/PKG_062520_TRT 1.46_EXPLAINING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN DETAIL_ROB BRADLEY_BJR_E062520 (1)-1682529958751.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>Are Larger Hurricanes Stronger? </h2><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2023/04/PKG_102722_TRT 1-00_HURRICANE MINUTE_ARE LARGER HURRICANES STRONGER_JOSH MORGERMAN_EM_E102722-1682532639484.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Hurricane Prep Week 2023: How Hurricanes Form

How Hurricanes Form:

What is Saharan Dust & How Does it Impact the Tropics?

Are Larger Hurricanes Stronger?

Strong July Cold Front Sparks Severe Weather

A strong July cold front is racing through th

Monitoring "Invest 93L" Near Florida

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded th

Flash Flooding Threat Continues in Texas

It has been 10 days since the devastating flo

Torrential Rain Swamps the Northeast Monday

A cold front pushing through the Eastern Seab

Dangerous Heat Impacting the Western U.S.

High pressure is moving off the California co

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy

Severe Storm Risk Pushes into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley

Friday was another busy day with severe weath