Brittany Lockley

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On Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Jerry had become the 10th named storm of the season. The storm is located less than 400 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. The storm will make a close call with the Leeward Islands before turning northward and strengthening.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 143114-1760041885969.png">The Leeward Islands are now under Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings. These islands can experience tropical-storm force winds, heavy rain, and rough surf.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 143227-1760041953550.png">The GFS model has been keeping this storm just east of the Caribbean islands and steering it around a Bermuda High, like many of the storms that developed in the Atlantic this season.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-09 04-07-00-1760004472413.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The next name on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane list is Karen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/TROPICAL NAMS-1759873018519.png">Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest on the tropics.

Dave Holder

Tropical Storm Jerry: Forecast, Track, and Island Impacts

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 16 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely above average (101%). While Octave has dissipated, Priscilla and TD-17E (soon to be Raymond) are churning near Mexico and will send flooding rain into the Southwestern United States through the weekend.<h1>Tropical Storm Priscilla</h1>West of the Baja Peninsula, we have Tropical Storm Priscilla which is expected to weaken as it meanders toward the coast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 090415-1760022531046.png">The forecast cone of uncertainty has Priscilla moving parallel to the Baja over the next few days. This weekend, the remnant moisture moves into the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/moisture-returns-to-the-southwest-some-priscilla-influence-later">Desert Southwest</a>. <h1>TD17-E / Raymond</h1>Tropical Depression 17-E formed Thursday morning and is likely to be named Raymond soon, as it is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm. This system is already bringing impacts to Mexico in the form of heavy rain, strong winds, and rough surf.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 103450-1760027710799.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 103457-1760027719699.png">17E/Raymond is expected to track north toward Cabo San Lucas before turning NNW toward AZ/NM. The system won;t hold together but it's moisture will keep <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/moisture-returns-to-the-southwest-some-priscilla-influence-later">flood potential high for some areas</a> through early next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 103502-1760027728362.png">In the meantime, tropical storm watches have been issued from Puerto Vallarta to the south. Tropical storm force winds are likely in these areas. Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!

Patrick Crawford

Eastern Pacific: Priscilla and TD17-E Target Mexico, Desert SW with Downpours

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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An area of low pressure is expected to form along the southeast coast by this weekend. Onshore winds will keep the threat for coastal flooding around for the area. Heavy rainfall could also lead to additional flooding for the region. This low is not expected to gain tropical characteristics but could still bring impacts to the Carolinas and even the Northeast.THE TIMINGThe low will start form headed into the weekend, amping up moisture and wind gusts. The low will continue to ride up the coast through early next week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/COASTLALALA-1759971398206.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) already has a marginal to slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding for Friday and Saturday across the Carolinas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web1-1759921172258.png">The Outer Banks of North Carolina are under a slight risk for scattered flood concerns.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web2-1759921206931.png">The outlook for excessive rain extends all the way out to Sunday, when the coastal low is expected to track north, bringing a slight risk of flash flooding through the Outer Banks into coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1759977404137.png">The 3 - 7 day hazards outlook has cities like Wilmington, NC, and Virginia Beach, VA highlighted for the potential of high winds. The timeline for these strong winds is Saturday to Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 165222-1759877550401.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Weekend Coastal Low: Rain & Flooding Threat

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Significant flash flooding is expected in the Southwestern United States over the next few days as tropical moisture is pulled north into the region. Be sure to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home">check your property's flood zone</a> and have a plan to seek higher ground if necessary. NEVER drive through flood waters if you cannot easily see the water's depth or the road below it. Wash outs are likely the next few days. The remnant moisture from Priscilla, and the system after it, will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms over extremely varied terrain from Thursday through the weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/sw moisture-1759802481081.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Out ahead of the event, Flood Watches has been issued for parts of the Four Corners into Saturday night (top of page). Several inches of rain are expected across the Four Corners with isolated totals that could surpass 6 inches or more. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-09 064751-1760014125312.png">Rain chances will start on Thursday, but the heaviest of the rain and a few snow showers will be possible on Friday and Saturday. In some spots of the Four Corners and California, the grounds are pretty saturated from previous rainfalls induced by tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-09 06-49-24-1760014189692.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>We'll be detailing this more live on WeatherNation. For a more immediate update on your southwest regional forecast, be sure to tune in at:50!

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, has ruled that a tornado near Enderlin, ND, caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This marks the end of 12 years without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm caused three fatalities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png">Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade its survey findings:<blockquote>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND, to learn more about the decision to upgrade the tornado rating and the factors that influenced the decision.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1>On June 20, 2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S., spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long-track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm">SPC has a detailed page</a> dedicated to these destructive windstorms. Several typically occur each year, though they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho">derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</a>, producing hurricane-force winds and widespread damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2>Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota, was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as an intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything, keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to break their yearly tornado record</a>.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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Kevin Schneider

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<h1>TEMPERATURES</h1>A cold front sweeping through the Plains has brought a noticeable temperature drop behind it. Widespread Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have now continued into Wednesday morning. Daytime highs are dropping 20+ degrees from where they were Sunday for cities where the cold front has crossed. As impressive as that is, we're only getting back to where seasonal avereges, which shows how warm it's been for a little while. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073601-1759844169282.png"><h1>RAIN / STORMS</h1>An upper-level trough is also contributing to this storm setup, supporting a surface cold front expected to move east and southeast through Wednesday. With dew points in the 60s, there’s plenty of moisture to fuel thunderstorms, but limited instability should keep most storms below severe thresholds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073730-1759844263068.png">The frontal system will continue tapping into Gulf moisture as it moves through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The available moisture will spark a flash flooding threat, as several cities get hit for 2 days in rain as this system slows down.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06_rne bams3k-1759802883898.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has issued excessive rainfall outlooks through Tuesday across these regions. They have now been upgraded to slight (level 2 out of 4), but rain rates may get as heavy as 1-2" per hour.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073642-1759844214639.png">With high rain rates, rainfall totals between 2-4" are possible by the time it's all said and done. Many areas have already picked up a few inches of rain already, here's what more we could have in store<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073851-1759844339091.png">We’ll keep tracking this system as it shifts east through midweek. The good news is cooler, drier air settles in behind it, bringing a welcome taste of fall once the storms clear out.

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has been developing quickly across the United States, with more color this week dropping into the middle latitudes! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 30 - October 6). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 203511-1759199719401.png">Color has quickly developed and already peaked for regions in the dark orange and red shades above (orange to red areas), much of it across the Rockies and Cascades. The Upper-Midwest and northern New England/New York are also experiencing some peak color!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1970624217776607589" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1970624217776607589"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Rain is welcome at times, however, to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">Ever wonder which trees produce certain colors? Check out the handy identification guide for foliage below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-21 041320-1758449873768.png">

Tracey Anthony

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

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Strong available moisture and instability in the atmosphere will lead to some scattered storms today from Texas through Louisiana.  Some of these storms could be severe with the risk of large hail and damaging winds.  Here is the very latest information.
<h1>Severe Outlook <img class="alignnone wp-image-99537 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/AMS_SEAL-4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /></h1>
A marginal risk of severe weather (meaning isolated severe storm chances) is in place from Central Texas to Southeast Louisiana.  Heavy rain will also be possible within today's storms, so be on alert of some areas of flash flooding too.
<h1>Severe Risks<img class="alignnone wp-image-99538 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/bad-1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /></h1>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-99539 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/brqaed-1.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

&nbsp;

We don't have to be concerned about a repeat of what happened Monday and Tuesday, but there will still be the possibility of some isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds.  As of right now there is no risk of tornadoes...which alone is completely different than what took place early in the week.
<h1>Forecast<img class="alignnone wp-image-99531 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/7day-4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" /></h1>
<img class="alignnone wp-image-99532 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/7day1-4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-99533 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/7day2-4.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-99534 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/7day3-3.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

<img class="alignnone wp-image-99535 size-full" src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2018/11/7day4-3.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />

You can see the timing for today's severe storms will be during the late morning through the evening hours.  Keep checking WeatherNation for the very latest updates.

Isolated Severe Storms for the South Wednesday

Severe Outlook

Severe Risks

Forecast

Tropical Storm Jerry: Forecast, Track, and Island Impacts

On Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Jerry had

Eastern Pacific: Priscilla and TD17-E Target Mexico, Desert SW with Downpours

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average

Weekend Coastal Low: Rain & Flooding Threat

An area of low pressure is expected to form a

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

Significant flash flooding is expected in the

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

TEMPERATURESA cold front sweeping through the

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts