January El Nino Update – El Nino Watch Continues Jan 11, 2019

Just like last month, the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean is nice and warm, but the atmosphere has yet to respond so an El Nino watch continues. A full El Nino pattern is still expected to form between now and Spring, but chances have been lower to 65% this month (from 90% in December).

According to the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) latest advisory, there are “widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.” Despite the above-average ocean temperatures, the overall atmosphere circulation continued to reflect neutral conditions.  The late winter and early spring are the most favored months for the weather patterns to sync with the warm ocean temperatures, so there is a still a likelihood that El Nino will happen.

The CPC notes that the majority of the long range climate forecast models predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through at least the Northern Hemisphere into Spring. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, if conditions were to form.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Tweets

Like #lightning? Check out the central Oklahoma skies from Saturday night-Sunday AM. #OKwx https://t.co/yCQ2zCzXar

3 hours ago by WeatherNation

MASSIVE #hail pounded parts of the Dallas Fort Worth metroplex earlier Sunday. Check out this video from McKinney… https://t.co/Ip8TTOGf44

4 hours ago by WeatherNation

The north central U.S. will see very warm temps by midweek. Snow melt will be the result. Flooding concerns will… https://t.co/ToxYRZxTHH

5 hours ago by WeatherNation

More hail from earlier today in Missouri: #MOwx https://t.co/XDAyax5AY1

5 hours ago by WeatherNation

Want some internet R&R? How 'bout sunshine and low 70s in Pensacola, FL earlier today! More clouds, more warmth M… https://t.co/ye2YQ18Blf

6 hours ago by WeatherNation

A video of a tornado warned storm passing through Chester, IL earlier today! https://t.co/DYMs6OiUnD

6 hours ago by WeatherNation

SOUND UP! Hail moved through parts of Illinois earlier today - making any grilling plans a bit...difficult.… https://t.co/tdOIaBbsgZ

7 hours ago by WeatherNation

The large threat today is the hail! Places in Missouri and Illinois already experiencing the hail as severe weather… https://t.co/yYlabKkPbK

9 hours ago by WeatherNation

#Severe #Thunderstorm Watches are posted from #Dallas through #SaintLouis through tonight. Large hail and damaging… https://t.co/QTwnXJEQzr

10 hours ago by WeatherNation

RT @NWSStLouis: Tornado Warning including Washington County, MO until 5:15 PM CDT https://t.co/FQxAPQhYJ7

11 hours ago by WeatherNation

BREAKING: A #Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of #Missouri and #Illinois until 10pm CDT. #MOwxhttps://t.co/kV0buCWyPF

13 hours ago by WeatherNation
Follow Us