Less Storms - NOAA's Updated Hurricane Season Outlook
Less Storms – NOAA’s Updated Hurricane Season Outlook Aug 9, 2018

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters are lowering their forecast numbers for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

Forecasters are calling for 9 to 13 named total storms, with 4 to 7 hurricanes, and between 0 to 2 major hurricanes, which are hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

So far this 2018 hurricane season there have been four named storms, including two hurricanes. An average six-month hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

One factor incorporated in to the update was the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the fact that an El Nino is much more likely to form and become strong enough to inhibit or suppress storm develop across the Atlantic during the later half of the season.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO, is an climate index that’s a measure of the sea surface temperature anomalies across the central tropical Pacific Ocean, west of South America. If the index or anomalies are positive, this is referred to as an “El Nino”, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures for this region. If the anomalies are negative, then this is referred to as “La Nina”, with cooler than average sea-surface temperatures for this region.

This is important because warmer waters typically lead to more thunderstorm activity across this region of the Pacific, and the fast winds associated with these storms can spread across the atmosphere, in to the tropical Atlantic and lead to a less favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes to form. According to NOAA, there is nearly a 70 percent chance of El Nino during this Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Some additional factors leading to a drop in the forecast numbers for storms include sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean being lower than average, drier air, and increased instability of the atmosphere, will likely lead to lower numbers of storms in the Atlantic.

NOAA forecasters originally called for 10 to 16 name storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

Tune into WeatherNation for the latest on the updated Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook and other top weather stories from across the nation.

For WeatherNation – Meteorologist Marcus Walter.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


UNDER WATER - Check out this area almost unrecognizable at Lake Travis in Texas from all the heavy rain on Thursday… https://t.co/y7t25i1mLu

2 hours ago by WeatherNation

FLOODING from heavy rain continues to impact the Lone Star State. If you think it's been a wet few months, you're r… https://t.co/K3iw8vx9zJ

4 hours ago by WeatherNation

Fire weather warnings go into effect for southern California early Friday morning! #CAwx https://t.co/4FVppf5uM1

5 hours ago by WeatherNation

MICHAEL UPDATE - We check in with Bay County, FL to get the latest on what's happening post-#Michael @BOCCPIO https://t.co/BqfH4vEBHV

6 hours ago by WeatherNation

WATCH: We're continuing to track the deadly flooding in #Texas. Watch as residents caught pieces of the 2900 Bridge… https://t.co/UiPrnQmkCX

7 hours ago by WeatherNation

First responders were called in to evacuate a group of campers after #flood waters got a little too close for comfo… https://t.co/uTpxAPVqgn

8 hours ago by WeatherNation

While most buildings in #MexicoBeachFl were reduced to rubble by #HurricaneMichael, ONE stood tall and strong. Hear… https://t.co/71K6gcRmt2

9 hours ago by WeatherNation

Good morning sunshine... I mean snow... ❄️I mean... what day is it? People in New Hampshire had a nice, little dus… https://t.co/VhjONOUShg

10 hours ago by WeatherNation

RT @WeatherNation: A look at the forecast in Houston for game 5 of the American League Championship Series tonight, along with game 6 in Mi…

11 hours ago by WeatherNation

A look at the forecast in Houston for game 5 of the American League Championship Series tonight, along with game 6… https://t.co/mSHNV9bAE8

11 hours ago by WeatherNation

More rain is on the way for Texas. This time, it's heading to the gulf coast. But how much? https://t.co/KLq9rZSKCe

12 hours ago by WeatherNation

Rain, Rain, Go Away. Texas continues to add impressive rain totals to their compartment as a soggy stretch of weath… https://t.co/lFZDv49vHb

14 hours ago by WeatherNation

Airborne research looks into the connection between smoke and clouds: https://t.co/zEzh9Oqqoq https://t.co/j0hFqiRBSn

14 hours ago by WeatherNation

NOAA's @NWSCPC issues their Winter forecast - warmth for much of the nation: https://t.co/9y4yJX6nFM https://t.co/JB0O2eZUzu

14 hours ago by WeatherNation

The #WinterOutlook is out! NOAA predicts a wetter than normal winter for most of the southern U.S., and generally w… https://t.co/ZZMnExyXBN

14 hours ago by WeatherNation

NEW VIDEO - More drone footage captures what will undoubtedly take years to recover from in Mexico Beach, Florida..… https://t.co/amOQLuwQuJ

15 hours ago by WeatherNation

It's a crisp start to the morning in Boston where wind advisories are waking up residents in the area. Still a pret… https://t.co/9nfjPZtiaL

18 hours ago by WeatherNation

NEW THIS MORNING - Upstate New York is waking up to a few snowflakes on the ground, their first official snowfall o… https://t.co/0FuBamF0jV

18 hours ago by WeatherNation

The Lake Effect Snow Machine was cranked up on high Wednesday across parts of Michigan, and although it's taking a… https://t.co/QW6IpDrOsZ

18 October by WeatherNation
Follow Us