NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued their outlook for January to March 2019, which still indicates patterns of a weak El Nino. Warmer than average temperatures are predicted across the West and Northern Plains. Colder than normal weather is predicted for the Tennessee Valley. From the Southeast to the Southwest, wetter than average weather is in the forecast. In the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest, below normal precipitation is predicted.

The best chances for below-normal temperatures during the first 3 months of 2019 appear to be for the Southern Appalachians, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. Areas from the Rockies westward are favored to experience warmer than usual conditions. https://t.co/dfWJFLTXzj pic.twitter.com/pExeMjQ4Rq

— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) December 20, 2018

The drought forecast for the start of 2019 continues to show improvement across California and the Rockies. With the drier than normal forecast for the Northwest, drought conditions are likely to develop over that region.

In the first three months of 2019 #drought conditions are forecast to improve across Southern California through the Central Rockies. Severe drought is likely to develop in parts of the Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies. https://t.co/CPY78JXHKa pic.twitter.com/fQjRdXQQZP

— NWSCPC (@NWSCPC) December 20, 2018

The extensively discussed El Nino is underway in the Pacific Ocean, but the atmosphere has yet to respond. Observed sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than normal as expected, with computer models expecting this to continue. Right now, the overall global pattern resembles neutral conditions. Based on the latest observations and model forecasts, the CPC still indicates a greater than 80 percent chance for El Nino from January to March and 70 percent that it persists through May.

[November 2018 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. Graphic by NOAA Climate; data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab.]

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Mace Michaels