Kevin Schneider

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<h1>SETUP</h1><p>An upper-level low is broke off from the flow aloft earlier this week. This helped spin up an area of low pressure at the surface that will continue to be largely stationary into Wednesday. That could buy it enough time to acquire subtropical characteristics sometime this week. Regardless, the impacts will be felt, especially along the coasts.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-20 05-05-18-1792494347326.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 113555-1792344980113.png"></p><p>High winds with a stubborn low will wear down many beaches along the eastern seaboard. What's of most concern are the beaches in North Carolina, which stick out farthest and places like Virginia who will have to endure days of breezy winds agitating the seas. Waves of 10-15 feet can be expected, which will help push a few feet of seawater onshore into normally dry stretches of the coast.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 050623-1792494397482.png"></p><p></p><p>Wind gusts could reach 40-50 mph at times throughout the week as well. The questions about rainfall hinge on the location of the low. At this time, only areas along the coast could get a few showers, with the best chance looking like Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 050707-1792494439890.png"></p><h1>JOSEPHINE? IS THAT YOU?</h1><p>But if the low develops some tropical characteristics, it would need a name. Josephine is the next name on the list in the Atlantic basin. The NHC has started to increase these chances, dubbing it Invest 93-L as of their latest update.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 1-1792505146913.png"></p><p>Right now, a majority of models struggle to develop the traits needed to qualify as a subtropical system, but that could change. Ultimately, the impacts won't change with or without officially naming it.</p>

Nor'Easter Riles up the Waves This Week

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p>Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but how will the rest of the season shape up? Record-breaking wind shear is likely to continue to limit most tropical systems in the Atlantic, but a few more storms are still possible.</p><h3><strong>Invest 94-E</strong></h3><p><strong><em>Invest 94-E</em></strong> is expected to form into a tropical storm over the next day or so as conditions are conducive for development. Models have this system staying just west of Mexico.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 051443-1792494894928.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 051532-1792494945497.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-28 194202-1790646127358.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropics: Pacific Staying Active

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<p>Looking ahead to this week, a low-pressure system will drop south from Canada down into Southern California. WPC favors most of the Western United States for above-average precipitation, which is good news after the fires that broke out across Southern California last week.</p><h2>FORECAST</h2><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/1020-1792518751443.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>EXCESSIVE RAINFALL</h2><p>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a <strong>marginal </strong>to <strong>slight</strong> risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Southwest Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation should really get going on Wednesday, especially in Central and Southern California. Throughout the week, the precipitation will slide eastward into the Four Corners. Thankfully, these alerts die off by Friday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/10201-1792518804409.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 115332-1792518817113.png">This event could bring some snowfall to the Sierra Nevada.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 115348-1792518832959.png">This also means some decent totals for the Rockies as well! Our in-house models suggest some isolated spots getting up to a foot by Friday!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 115359-1792518846759.png"></p><p>For all the latest details, tune into the West Regional forecast every hour, at :50 past the hour.</p>

Taban Sharifi

Pattern Change for the West This Week

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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<h3>WHAT TO EXPECT</h3><p>A ridge of high pressure will build this week, keeping temperatures above average across the central U.S. Temperatures across the south will run 5°-10° above average, but in the northern Plains and Midwest, 10°- 20° above average! This will make for some warm weather for any fall activities you have planned.</p><h3>NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST:</h3><p>Temperatures will be quite warm in the coming days for this portion of the country. Most cities will see highs in the upper 60s and 70s! Rapid City normally has an average high of 59°, and on Thursday will have a high of 79°.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 045011-1792493433355.png"></p><p>As we look ahead through the end of October, there is high confidence that much of the country will remain above average. That looks to include and Trick or Treaters if the pattern holds up! </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-20 045135-1792493505643.png"></p>

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

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<p>Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow quickly on Thursday and Friday around Southern California, forcing a closure on I-5 near Camp Pendleton. Unfortunately, more fires grew on Friday, one of which was the Norte Fire near San Juan Capistrano. Evacuation orders remain for the Norte Fire and the Bryson Fire. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/"><strong><u>Check on the latest status with CalFire</u></strong></a>. Santa Ana winds are expected to continue into Saturday before backing off into Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are also increasing the fire danger. Power is being shut off to prevent additional fires from getting started, primarily in areas around northern Los Angeles into the Simi Valley and surrounding mountain communities. Weather conditions will help in containment efforts moving forward.</p><p><strong>Bryson Fire: </strong>146 acres, 74% contained. This fire began in Los Angeles County near Encinal Canyon Rd. in Malibu on Thursday, Oct. 15.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2110928718306615510" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2110928718306615510"></div><p><strong>Norte Fire: </strong>570 acres, 60% contained. The Norte fire began in Orange County, right along the border between San Juan Capistrano and San Clemente. This fire started on Friday, October 16th. Orange County fire officials say six homes have been damaged or destroyed. The burn scar remains an active fire hazard area and is closed until further notice.</p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111192490997125311" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111192490997125311"></div><p><strong>Henderson Fire: </strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">3,260 acres, 85% contained. This was the largest of the fires that broke out. The Henderson fire began on Thursday afternoon near Camp Pendleton. The fire forced closures of north and southbound lanes of I-5 as it grew rapidly. All evacuation orders are now lifted.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2111479851412832613" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2111479851412832613"></div><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 183715-1792370245286.png">Fire Outlook</h1><p>There is a <strong>Elevated</strong> risk for fire danger across portions of Northern California, Nevada, and Southeastern Oregon on Monday. A strong trough is dropping down the coast today, kicking up the winds in these locations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-19 073620-1792417058638.png">Keep checking with WeatherNation for more updates on the California wildfires.</p>

Tracey Anthony

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

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<p>Across portions of the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will be cool to start your Monday morning. There are widespread frost and freeze alerts for temperatures into the 30s.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185729-1792371454398.png">Ridge of high pressure builds back in by Wednesday, bringing temperatures back above average across the central U.S.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185752-1792371502912.png">Temperatures start to climb on Wednesday and will continue to stay warm through the work week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185829-1792371519268.png">It's not just the south, the north will climb well above normal too. Minneapolis will reach the 70s when temperatures should be under 60 by now.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 185834-1792371541054.png">The longer-range outlook holds on to a higher confidence that temperatures will remain above normal through the end of October across a large portion of the country.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-18 190004-1792371633934.png">Tune into WeatherNation :10 past the hour for more on your eastern regional forecast.</p>

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

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<p></p><h1>Severe Storm Potential</h1><p>Severe risk is decreasing into Saturday morning. Some lingering storms still could produce some heavy rain and strong winds as the cold front departs the region.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198726852.png"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>You can see the lingering storms through the first half of Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Some rain could be heavy enough to impact travel and produce some isolated flash flooding.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/FORECAST-1792198978545.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><h1>Cooler Air</h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792198992928.png"></p><p>Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front, dropping into the 40s for highs this weekend parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes!</p><p></p>

Rob Bradley

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

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We have been talking about the heavy rain impacting the West Coast and even the heavy snow chance in the High Plains, but areas that haven't been seeing precipitation over the past several months will be dealing with an increasing fire weather risk.
<h2>Drought Monitor</h2>
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Here is the latest drought monitor for the central and southwestern U.S..  You can see extreme to exceptional drought conditions over parts of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.  These are the same areas that need to be on alert for fire weather Saturday and Sunday.
<h2>Fire Weather Ingredients</h2>
All the ingredients will be there over the weekend for a dangerous fire risk.  I already mentioned the drought conditions, so we know it's very dry in these areas.

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Temperatures will be very warm with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s over parts of New Mexico and Texas.

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The winds will be strong on Sunday as well...and these strong winds help to fuel and spread any fires that develop.

So all the weather conditions needed for a fire weather threat will be there this weekend.  Warm temperatures, low humidity and strong winds.  Be ready for fire weather watches and red flag warnings over a majority of the areas in extreme drought conditions for Saturday and Sunday.
<h2>Extended Outlook</h2>
Looking at the extended forecast into mid-April, there is a chance the fire weather danger will continue in these same areas.  We are expect above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation over this region from April 12th -&gt; April 18th.

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&nbsp;

<strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistPC/">Meteorologist Patrick Crawford</a></strong>

&nbsp;

Strong Winds and High Fire Danger for the Southern Plains This Weekend

Drought Monitor

Fire Weather Ingredients

Extended Outlook

Nor'Easter Riles up the Waves This Week

SETUPAn upper-level low is broke off from the

Tropics: Pacific Staying Active

Isaias ended the late-season streak of no hur

Pattern Change for the West This Week

Looking ahead to this week, a low-pressure sy

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

WHAT TO EXPECTA ridge of high pressure will b

Several Fires Break Out in SoCal Last Week Amid Santa Ana Wind Event

Santa Ana winds helped several fires grow qui

Another Cold Morning Before Things Warm Back Up

Across portions of the Ohio Valley through th

Severe Risk Diminishing Saturday Morning for the Northeast

Severe Storm PotentialSevere risk is decreasi