Tropical Development in the Caribbean This Week? Jun 12, 2018

An area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for possible tropical development later this week, and as of Tuesday, there were still low odds of it becoming a storm.

As of Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center put only 20 percent odds on the cluster of showers and thunderstorms becoming a tropical system. The NHC isn’t planning on sending in the hurricane hunters into the storm, also as of Tuesday evening.

Slow, gradual development is possible over the next few days as the tropical wave associated with the storminess drifts west-northwestward. The exact track, as tends to be the case in the early stages of a system’s development, remains uncertain. Be sure to stay with WeatherNation for the latest on the storm’s track and any possible changes to it.

Just as was the case with Tropical Storm Alberto late last month, the main impact from this system will almost certainly be heavy rainfall, and the potential for flooding. The main areas that’ll be impacted by this in the near-term will be Central America, and specifically the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. As the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week and into the weekend, however, some development is possible, which could bring rain to different parts of Mexico and perhaps the Texas Gulf coast. Exact impacts and timing for these areas will change in the next few days, so stay up to date on the forecast. To repeat, heavy rain will be the main threat from this storm, regardless of where it goes.

Should this system develop into a named storm – again, this still appears unlikely right now – it would be named Beryl, the second named storm of the Atlantic basin season.

Stay with WeatherNation for the latest on the tropics and this system.

For WeatherNation: Meteorologist Chris Bianchi

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