Brittany Lockley

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A robust upper-level trough sweeping through the northern Plains Friday morning is setting the stage for a notably dynamic weather pattern for August. There were widespread wind reports over with the Grand Forks AFB clocking a wind gust of 91 mph. Storms will continue throughout the day, as there will be plenty of energy and instability across the plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has severe outlooks in place through Sunday. These storms will pose a significant threat, including the possibility of a few tornadoes, hail over two inches in size, and wind gusts over 75 mph. &nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 114222-1754674963936.png"><h1>Friday</h1>As the front pushes eastward, it will tap into enough instability .The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted an Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms across North Dakota to start the day, extending into parts of Minnesota and other areas of the upper Midwest later tonight. There will be a risk for overnight storms and that means resident's will need multiple ways to get severe warnings.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 1-1754683487136.jpg"> <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 1-1754683516209.jpg">Into the evening, a few severe storms could be possible behind the front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, the highest threat of severe storms should take place within the warm sector across North Dakota, Northern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The storm threat will continue well past midnight.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1754691154864.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>This Weekend</h1>Saturday, the Storm Prediction Center issued severe outlooks for severe storms, as the overnight progresses, the dominant threat may shift to damaging straight-line winds, with organized convection likely to sweep eastward. Stay inside as these storms pass and park your car in a garage or carport, if possible as hail will be a threat too. Saturday already has a slight risk of severe weather across Wisconsin and Iowa. As the front stalls, more severe weather is possible on Sunday too.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/PIC 1-1754683923725.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754691257521.png">Alongside the severe thunderstorm potential, periods of heavy rainfall are expected to develop across parts of the Great Lakes. Models are now starting to point out a region of some very heavy rain heading into Saturday and Sunday in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. As a result, the Weather Prediciton Center has upgraded to a MODERATE flood risk!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754691485525.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754691452181.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates throughout the next few days on-air and online.

Jesse Kelley

Severe Threat to Impact Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Through the Weekend

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Tropical activity in the Atlantic has been off to a crawl to start the 2025 season. Before Dexter formed, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic was less than 15% of normal. Dexter more than doubled this stat but it's still less than 30% of a typical year, even though we may be ahead of schedule when it comes to named storms. That being said, the bulk of seasonal activity is still ahead of us, with 90% of the annual energy occurring after the first week of August. In short, we've got a lot of season ahead of us, so don't let your guard down!RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-issues-final-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast">CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast</a><h2>SE Low</h2>Off the southeastern U.S., there is a broad area of low pressure that remains disorganized. This low helped produce tropical downpours in North Carolina on Wednesday that led to significant flash flooding. It's looking less likely that this system will be able to organize into a tropical depression at this point, but it will still create scattered downpours and coastal impacts, like bigger swells and stronger currents.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 065536-1754657759071.png"><h2>Tropical Wave (Central Atlantic) - Invest 96L</h2>The attention-grabber is our latest wave that is moving through the MDR (Main Development Region) in the Atlantic. This system will be fighting some dry air (SAL) in the short term, which may limit or slow down development. It has a better chance to develop in the 3-7 day window.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 065611-1754657780660.png">Models are coming into better agreement about the potential track of Invest 96L, with most pulling the wave around a ridge of high pressure located well east of Bermuda. The weakness in the ridge should steer the system northwest in the next 5 days before it curves northward, likely to the east of Bermuda.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 065632-1754657800590.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest tropical updates.

Tropics: Atlantic Waking Up, Still Below Average

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Flooding has been a major weather story for the southeast recently. On Wednesday, heavy rain led to flash floods in parts of North Carolina, causing roads to flood, closures, and water rescues. Some areas received between four and six inches of rain in just a short time, which caused flooding and disruptions.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1953206950902284411" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1953206950902284411"></div>Now, the flooding threat is shifting farther to the south as tropical moisture plagues the region. A weak stationary boundary remains draped across the Sunshine State and over the Gulf. Parts of Florida, like Land O Lakes, have received almost five inches of rainfall in the Last 24 hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 062650-1754656018135.jpg"><h1>Forecast</h1>As the stalled front lingers and a weak area of low pressure remains off the coast, rounds of storms are expected, with the heaviest rain possible in Florida and cities closer to the coastline. Florida remains on the south side of the boundary, so tropical moisture is being pulled in. While the area of low pressure as of now still has a low chance of developing some sub-tropical or tropical characteristics.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754691741688.png">This weather pattern will aid in scattered to widespread showers and storms each day through the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a marginal (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall across parts of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Heavy rainfall is likely to create localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/New Baron Video 3-1754691835875.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune into the eastern regional forecast :10 past the hour for more details.

Front Stalls - Downpours Target the Southeast

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Another intense night of severe storms ripped through portions of the Upper-Midwest from Thursday night into Friday morning. Multiple bowing segments congealed into a large complex/squall line, which produced wind damage for over 300 miles across the states of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota. Thousands of households lost power while several structures have reported damage. Will this be classified as a derecho? Let's investigate. First - what is a derecho? A big severe strength wind storm to say the least, but the Storm Prediction Center has a full definition including multiple criteria that have to be met.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061237-1754655858161.png">It certainly appears this system will meet the spatial requirements for a derecho as damaging wind reports (58+ mph) stretch for over 300 miles.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061159-1754655182565.png">Peak gusts were well over 75 mph, with a gust at Gran Forks Air Force Base measured at 91 mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061206-1754655189603.png">This squall line produced several 75+ mph gusts, which appear to be well separated as well. This also appears to meet the requirement for a derecho. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061215-1754655197446.png">While it appears this system has met the basic 3 requirements for a derecho, other criteria (top of the page) have to be met as well. In addition, wind reports and reports of damage will have to be verified as accurate. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061231-1754655205131.png">Derechos most often occur from the late spring through the summer, with a typical drop off in August. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 061246-1754655219174.png">

Patrick Crawford

Likely Derecho Hits the Upper-Midwest Overnight

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A strong ridge of high pressure has been dominated the Southwestern US to end the week, leading to many new high temperature records. Phoenix, AZ set a new MONTHLY record on Thursday by reaching 118°, the hottest temperature in August since record keeping began.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 070907-1754658988601.png">Heat Alerts are in place through Friday. Several record high temperatures are in jeopardy. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 071536-1754659076585.png">Temperatures have reached 110° in areas of the southwest, and the hot temperatures will continue into the weekend with gradual cooling. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 071541-1754659121161.png">After tying a record high of 99 on Thursday, Denver is still expected to reach the upper 90s on Friday before a significant cool down this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 071547-1754659159209.png">The longer range temperature outlook has a higher level of confidence that temperatures will remain above average through the middle of August.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-08 072052-1754659261336.png"></h1>

Phoenix Breaks Monthly Temp Record, Heat Backs Off This Weekend

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Thursday, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season">NOAA issued an update</a> to their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Although their numbers have adjusted down slightly, their predictions continue to foresee an above average season. This comes on the heels of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-08.pdf">Colorado State University releasing its final forecast</a> for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday. The forecast team at CSU, led by meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, kept their predictions the same as July. For August, they are stuck with 16 named storms overall, with eight of those predicted to be hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.&nbsp;It is important to note that both the NOAA and CSU forecasts include the four name storms that have already formed in the Atlantic (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter). Climatologically, around August 10 the rate at which storms form and grow accelerates quickly through the peak of the season around September 11.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1953109057427939468" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1953109057427939468"></div>The reason why the forecast has not changed much, or has gone down slightly since the April, is the uncertainty across the tropics. While sea surface temperatures in both the Atlantic and Pacific are still warm, and this tends to support storm formation, upper-level winds over the Caribbean have been unusually hostile during June and July. This atmospheric setup typically suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic basin.&nbsp;<blockquote>“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.&nbsp;</blockquote>RELATED ARTICLE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/an-area-to-monitor-in-the-atlantic">Atlantic Waking Up, Eastern Pacific Staying Active</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 110050-1754499664701.png">The driving factor behind the above-average forecast remains the exceptionally warm waters across the eastern and central Atlantic Basin. Combined with a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a state that neither strongly inhibits nor enhances storm activity, these conditions could still favor a more active season.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 105940-1754499600405.png">Yet, forecasters are closely watching high levels of wind shear in the Caribbean, a phenomenon involving shifts in wind direction and speed with height. This shear is known to disrupt storm development. &nbsp;CSU also warns that the U.S. coastline faces an above-average risk of at least one major hurricane making landfall this season, a reminder that even in uncertain years, coastal residents should remain vigilant.&nbsp;<blockquote>"No two storms are alike. Every storm presents unique, life-threatening hazards that can impact people in both coastal and inland communities. Have a plan in place, and know the actions you should take before, during and after the wide range of hazards that the hurricane season can bring.”&nbsp;said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-06 110039-1754499698410.png">With the arrival of August, the Atlantic hurricane season is entering its most active stretch, which typically peaks around September 10. The pattern is starting to get more active in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dexter is still making waves (literally) in the Atlantic, and there are two additional areas to watch in the central Atlantic and off the Southeast coast.&nbsp;The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, leaving several more months of potential activity ahead.&nbsp;Tune into WeatherNation for the latest Tropical updates.

CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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The Eastern and Central Pacific have had an interesting start to the season, with plenty of named storms (11 combined). This is above the average of 7, but the energy generated by these systems is only about 80% of what's typical for this time of year. Long story short, this region has had many systems, but they've been on the weaker side. That trend has continued this week with Henriette and Ivo which could bring minor impacts to nearby landmasses.<h1>Henriette</h1>Tropical Storm Henriette formed on Monday in the Pacific. No impacts to land are expected, but it could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands near this weekend. That could bring some secondary impacts to the island chain such a breezy conditions and waves. Henriette could reach hurricane status by early next week!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754622052887.png"><h1>IVO</h1>This system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday as it quickly moves parallel and then away from Mexico's coast. Locally heavy rain will be possible for coastal sections of SW Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/1-1754622100778.png"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=EP092025"> </a>Now that we have Ivo, up next on the list in the Pacific will be Juliette.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/tropical ivvo-1754519175244.png">We're far from the end of the Pacific Hurricane Season, with a secondary peak occurring later in September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/08/Screenshot 2025-08-05 104202-1754412196354.png">

Henriette & Ivo Spinning in the Pacific

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Governor Jeff Colyer, M.D. has issued a State of Disaster Emergency as a massive winter storm plows through the Kansas. Western parts of the state could receive up to a foot of snow, in addition to 40 mph wind gusts and more than a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation.

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The Governor's declaration will allow the use of state resources to help with recovery and response operations. The State Emergency Operations Center in Topeka opened partially Wednesday to monitor the forecast and emergency operations.

https://twitter.com/GovJeffColyer/status/1078028657590001665

"It is important to be prepared when we see a winter event like this approaching, and we appreciate our emergency responders who stand ready to provide any aide that may be needed. We hope that travelers will be wise by paying attention to weather alerts and not unnecessarily placing themselves in harm's way as the storm moves through." -Governor Jeff Colyer

https://twitter.com/KDOTHQ/status/1078033316736131073

For WeatherNation, Meteorologist Karissa Klos.

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WINTER STORM: Kansas Governor Declares State Of Disaster Emergency

Severe Threat to Impact Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Through the Weekend

A robust upper-level trough sweeping through

Tropics: Atlantic Waking Up, Still Below Average

Tropical activity in the Atlantic has been of

Front Stalls - Downpours Target the Southeast

Flooding has been a major weather story for t

Likely Derecho Hits the Upper-Midwest Overnight

Another intense night of severe storms ripped

Phoenix Breaks Monthly Temp Record, Heat Backs Off This Weekend

A strong ridge of high pressure has been domi

CSU, NOAA UPDATE Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Thursday, NOAA issued an update to their outl

Henriette & Ivo Spinning in the Pacific

The Eastern and Central Pacific have had an i