Kevin Schneider

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The tropical wave that has moved through the "MDR" officially became Tropical Storm Jerry on Tuesday morning. The initial forecast cone makes a close call with the Leeward Islands before turning northward and potentially threatening Bermuda late this weekend. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/jerrrrryyy-1759891051740.png">The GFS model has been keeping this system just east of the Caribbean islands and steering it around a Bermuda High, like many of the storms we've seen developing in the Atlantic this season.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06 nat-1759803192323.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is an additional area the NHC is watching, a 10%, low chance for tropical formation in the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Currently, the broad trough of low pressure is causing disorganized showers and storms around the Yucatan Peninsula and will move into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. There's a narrow wind of development before it moves inland into southern Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 123134-1759861929257.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/TROPICAL NAMS-1759873018519.png">

Jackie Brown

Watching Jerry In the Atlantic

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The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 16 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely below average (93%). The next week or two will likely be another period of higher activity, which could push the season to above-average numbers.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 130130-1759863730482.png">Hurricane Priscilla</h1>Along the coast of Mexico, we have Hurricane Priscilla. With winds sustained at 105 mph and moving west-northwest at 9 mph. Priscilla could bring tropical storm conditions to the SW coast of Mexico. Popular tourist spot Cabo San Lucas is under a tropical storm watch, as this system parallels the Baja coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/priscilsss-1759891180171.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 130049-1759863765286.png">The forecast cone of uncertainty has Priscilla moving parallel to the Baja over the next week. Beyond this week, the tropical moisture that is associated with Priscilla will likely be impacting the forecast for the desert southwest by this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/prl-1759891255909.png"><h1>Tropical Storm Octave</h1>Octave formed last Tuesday in the Eastern Pacific, became a hurricane, and has since weakened to a tropical storm. Octave continues to move east towards Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/octave-1759891297272.png"><h1>Tropical Wave</h1>There is a high chance of tropical formation with a wave behind Priscilla, south of southern Mexico, and it is likely that a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web4-1759855500752.png">If this wave gets a name, the next on the list after Priscilla is Raymond.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 163649-1759617419832.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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An area of low pressure is expected to form along the southeast coast by this weekend. Onshore winds will keep the threat for coastal flooding around for the area. Heavy rainfall could also lead to additional flooding for the region. This low is not expected to gain tropical characteristics but could still bring impacts to the Carolinas and even the Northeast.The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) already has a marginal to slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding for Friday and Saturday across the Carolinas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 160640-1759874836200.png">The Outer Banks of North Carolina are under the slight risk for scattered flood concerns.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 160644-1759874840629.png">The 3 - 7 day hazards outlook has cities like Wilmington, NC and Virginia Beach, VA highlighted for the potential of high winds. The timeline for these strong winds is Saturday to Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 165222-1759877550401.png">Stay with WeatherNation for the latest updates.

Weekend Coastal Low: Rain & Flooding Threat

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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Moisture from the Gulf is forecast to ride around a ridge of high pressure into New Mexico and the Front Range.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 195705-1759802759793.png">NEW MEXICO - Today, the Storm Prediction Center issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of New Mexico, especially in the Gila National Forest. It's a low-end risk due to the more isolated nature of these storms, some of which could bring in some hail.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/OVERNIGHGHGGHG-1759888304069.png">As we head into Wednesday, more storms pop up in the peak of afternoon heating as well.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/SOUTHWESTTTT-1759888370231.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Excessive Rainfall Outlooks have been issued into Wednesday with flash flooding possible in New Mexico. Some of these areas have been burned by wildfires in past seasons, leaving burn-scarred land. Without significant regrowth, the risk for mudslides, debris flows, and flash flooding is heightened each time it rains. Rainfall totals in eastern New Mexico show up to upwards of 2-3", which is a significant amount of rain for this region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 123411-1759862062322.png"><h2>Looking Ahead - Priscilla's Moisture</h2>As we head into the end of the work week, some moisture associated with Hurricane Priscilla may get caught up in the subtropical jet and bring moisture back to the southwestern U.S.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/sw moisture-1759802481081.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Timing out these rain chances will depend on what happens with Priscilla's potential landfall and interaction with Mexico and the Baja California's topography. For now, rain chances arrive in the southwest starting on Thursday and spread into the Four Corners by Friday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-07_Rsw-1759862483276.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>We'll be detailing this more live on WeatherNation, for a more immediate detail of your southwest regional, be sure to tune in :50!

Moisture Returns To The Southwest, Some Priscilla Influence Later

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND has ruled a tornado near Enderlin, ND caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This ends a 12 year period without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm cause three fatalities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png">Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade their survey findings:<blockquote>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png">We spoke with the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND to learn more about the decision to upgrade this tornado rating and the factors that went into the decision.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xSnzPzENapk" start="0"></iframe></div><h1>SET-UP</h1>On June 20,2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S. spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm">SPC has a detailed page</a> dedicated to these destructive wind storms. Several typically occur each year, through they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho">derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</a>, producing hurricane force winds and widespread damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2>Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as a intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to breaking their yearly tornado record</a>.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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<h1>TEMPERATURES</h1>A cold front sweeping through the Plains has brought a noticeable temperature drop behind it. Widespread Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have now continued into Wednesday morning. Daytime highs are dropping 20+ degrees from where they were Sunday for cities where the cold front has crossed. As impressive as that is, we're only getting back to where seasonal avereges, which shows how warm it's been for a little while. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073601-1759844169282.png"><h1>RAIN / STORMS</h1>An upper-level trough is also contributing to this storm setup, supporting a surface cold front expected to move east and southeast through Wednesday. With dew points in the 60s, there’s plenty of moisture to fuel thunderstorms, but limited instability should keep most storms below severe thresholds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073730-1759844263068.png">The frontal system will continue tapping into Gulf moisture as it moves through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The available moisture will spark a flash flooding threat, as several cities get hit for 2 days in rain as this system slows down.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-06_rne bams3k-1759802883898.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has issued excessive rainfall outlooks through Tuesday across these regions. They have now been upgraded to slight (level 2 out of 4), but rain rates may get as heavy as 1-2" per hour.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073642-1759844214639.png">With high rain rates, rainfall totals between 2-4" are possible by the time it's all said and done. Many areas have already picked up a few inches of rain already, here's what more we could have in store<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-07 073851-1759844339091.png">We’ll keep tracking this system as it shifts east through midweek. The good news is cooler, drier air settles in behind it, bringing a welcome taste of fall once the storms clear out.

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has been developing quickly across the United States, with more color this week dropping into the middle latitudes! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 30 - October 6). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 203511-1759199719401.png">Color has quickly developed and already peaked for regions in the dark orange and red shades above (orange to red areas), much of it across the Rockies and Cascades. The Upper-Midwest and northern New England/New York are also experiencing some peak color!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1970624217776607589" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1970624217776607589"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Rain is welcome at times, however, to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">Ever wonder which trees produce certain colors? Check out the handy identification guide for foliage below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-21 041320-1758449873768.png">

Tracey Anthony

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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ROCKIES - A strong, upper-level low-pressure system is moving through the western United States, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, snow, and wind. Much cooler temperatures are moving in as well, particularly behind a trailing frontal system, which will help produce heavy mountain snow.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/jfkkd-1759692403079.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Cold air behind the front has started changing rain to snow from Montana into Wyoming with more heavy snow for mountain areas into Sunday night.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 201649-1759630755021.png">Winter weather alerts have been issued for some heavy snow that will be expected in the mountains, mostly above 5,500 feet.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 063418-1759667665368.png">More details on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Fall turns to Winter Across the High Peaks of the West

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Tropical activity in the Atlantic has increased significantly over the last week. We're now tracking two named storms, Imelda and Humberto. On Saturday, Humberto reached Category 5 status, with sustained winds topping out at 160 mph! Since then, it has backed off to 80 mph winds, making it a category 1 storm.<h1>LOOKING BACK</h1>Humberto was named a week ago, last Wednesday afternoon, and gained hurricane status early Friday morning. This is the first time in nearly 100 years that we have had 2 Category 5 hurricanes in back-to-back seasons!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-30 203358-1759286043566.png">We are now past the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, but still have a ways to go for the season. For being such a quiet season, the normal amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a metric to quantify activity, is not far off. Two category 5 hurricanes will boost those numbers, though.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-01 091802-1759331890905.png">September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Humberto Merges with a Front in the Atlantic

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A cold has been slowly progressing across the country, bringing rain and gusty winds along with it. The front will continue to approach the East Coast to tend the week, spurring heavy showers and a few severe storms.Damaging winds are the primary concern here as we head into Thursday from Connecticut through Georgia (top of page). Isolated tornadoes are also possible, primarily in the Northeast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/PIC 3-1758827812988.jpg">Storms will follow along and ahead of the frontal boundary through the end of the work week. For now, Friday remains under a general thunderstorm risk.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/FORECAST-1758827797862.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> The other concern is the threat of flooding. With multiple rounds of showers and storms rivers, creeks, and streams will already be swollen which could keep the risk elevated through Thursday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-25 063248-1758803576034.png"> Tune in to WeatherNation live for more updates.

Patrick Crawford

Cold Front Drives Severe Storms Through Thursday

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Brittany Lockley

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Rain finally moves into areas that have been drought-stricken. There will be a chance of repeated storms and downpours across the mid-south through the northeast.&nbsp; A cold front will be pushing eastward across the eastern portions of the United States, where most of these storms will develop along the front.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-24 084229-1758724971383.png">Cities like Atlanta have not received that much rain. Atlanta has received only 0.02 inches of rainfall for the month of September. This set the record for the driest September since record-keeping.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-24 084320-1758725011813.png">Over the next several days, the Weather Prediction Center has issued excessive rainfall outlooks. A slight risk has been issued for&nbsp;Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, and the southern portions of Ohio. A Marginal risk will hover over the south for the next 5 days.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-24 160223-1758751350427.png">Rainfall totals can reach 1-2 inches, and isolated totals of 3 inches or higher will be possible for areas in the Slight Risk.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-24 160048-1758751356067.png">Tune into WeatherNation for more details.

Heavy Rainfall Slated for Drought-Stricken Areas

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Space weather observations are about to get a substantial upgrade from a new solar observing satellite scheduled to launch on Wednesday, September 24th. In addition, the way we receive critical real time data and forecasts is about to become easier to access and interpret.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0yg8nw0_IKQ" start="0"></iframe></div><h2>Satellite SWFO-L1</h2>This new satellite, Space Weather Follow On at Lagrange (SWFO-L1), will greatly enhance the ability of space weather experts to monitor activity from the sun in real time using several different instruments and is NOAA's first satellite dedicated to continuous, operational space weather observations. Why is monitoring the sun important? Solar phenomena such as Coronal Mass Ejections can disrupt, damage, or even destroy critical infrastructure here on Earth and in orbit, such as satellites, power grids, and communication equipment. This satellite will help replace aging satellites which have been operating well beyond their intended design life with depleting resources (fuel), such as SOHO (1995), ACE (1997), and DSCOVR (2015).NOAA Satellites released the following video to breakdown the instruments and observational capabilities of SWFO-L1.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/YgGUchjH83E" start="0"></iframe></div><h2>A New Way To View Space Weather Forecasts</h2>In conjunction with the launch of SWFO, NOAA is beginning a process to revamp how it delivers space weather forecasts. Making them easier to understand, more actionable, and tailored to users in specific sectors.Lynker is NOAA's lead partner in this effort. Former Deputy Director at NCAR, Scott McIntosh, joined us from the Lynker side on Monday to discuss these changes.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/75RsHe0wb5g" start="0"></iframe></div>

Brian Hartman

New NOAA Satellite Expected To Greatly Enhanced Sun Monitoring, Forecasts

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Monsoon season can be enhanced by tropical systems from the Eastern Pacific, in fact, this usually occurs 1-2 times per season on average! For the second time this year, parts of the SW are seeing enhanced precipitation from the tropics, this time from what was Tropical Storm Mario.Mario's moisture led to some intense rainfall from California to New Mexico, producing several significant flash flood events and debris flows, including in Oak Glen. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-19 052003-1758281154453.png">The heaviest of the rain is behind Southern California, but more scattered storms are possible with monsoon moisture across the Lower Four Corners Saturday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1758337487119.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The rain was a welcome sight for many in California. Downtown LA hadn't seen rain since the beginning of JUNE! The final count of 105 days isn't close to their longest streak ever, but that's not a bad thing.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 112305-1758216194410.png">Through Sunday morning, an additional half an inch to an inch of rain will be possible across the Southwest!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1758311862668.png">

Jesse Kelley

Flood Threat Slowing Down for California

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough that came in from the Pacific, moved over the Rockies, and is now in the Plains has been responsible for severe storms across the High Plains all week. It's now pushing into the Midwest and Southern Plains, ushering a slow-moving cold front through the area.Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a>The front is moving southward, bringing the threat of more hailstones and damaging winds. A level ONE risk (MARGINAL) is in effect for Thursday from Missouri to the Panhandle of Texas.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1758250684401.png">Scattered storms will continue along the front overnight into Friday, with a few more heavy downpours expected Friday afternoon especially across the Southern Plains. However behind the front, a few isolated storms could be severe in the Central Plains.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1758250851678.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1758250943134.png">Rainfall rates could surpass 1-2" per hour in these slow moving thunderstorms, resulting in pockets of 2-4 inches of accumulation. This could lead to isolated flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1758251167037.png">The WPC has issued excessive rainfall outlooks for this isolated flood chance for Thursday and Friday, between west Texas and northern Mississippi.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-18 053746-1758195612299.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Storms Slide Down the Plains

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163631-1758062210080.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163641-1758062216443.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, a frontal boundary keeps these storms coming for days. While we've had a couple of days of relief, more moisture is in the forecast for South Florida.That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-18 10-51-54-1758207184122.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches, or even more, before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web4-1758207272039.png">

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Flood Threat Slowing Down for California

Flood Threat Slowing Down for California

Storms Slide Down the Plains

Storms Slide Down the Plains

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