Tracey Anthony

Tracey2jpeg-1737574224773.jpeg

<p>November is underway, but hurricane season isn’t over just yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, including a disturbance that could become a tropical depression later this week. While there are currently no active tropical cyclones in either basin, forecasters are keeping an eye on potential development over the next several days.</p><h2><strong>Atlantic: Possible Subtropical Development Northeast of the Bahamas</strong></h2><p>An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in the coming days. According to the NHC, the system could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics late this week as it drifts over the western Atlantic. However, the window for development appears limited. By the weekend, the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into an environment less favorable for organization.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-03 05-37-49-1793709491074.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>The NHC currently gives this system a <strong>30% chance of development over the next seven days</strong>, with formation chances at 10% during the next 48 hours.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-03 053831-1793709528186.png"></p><p>At this time, no tropical cyclone has formed, and the system remains an area to monitor rather than an organized storm.</p><h2><strong>Pacific: Tropical Depression Likely Later This Week</strong></h2><p>The Pacific has a more promising setup for tropical development. A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual strengthening and organization as the disturbance tracks westward to west-northwestward at approximately 10 to 15 mph. The NHC says a <strong>tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week</strong> over the Central Pacific.</p><p>Formation probabilities currently stand at:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Next 48 hours:</strong> 30% (low)</p></li><li><p><strong>Next 7 days:</strong> 70% (high)</p></li></ul><p>Although the system is located well away from the Hawaiian Islands, its development and movement across the Central Pacific will be worth watching in the days ahead.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-03 053913-1793709570475.png">While not looking at a land-falling storm, the close proximity of its development could lead to tropical moisture ending up across the Hawaiian Islands. Regardless of that, threre is still quite some time in between. Many details about this forecast can change.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-03 05-40-13-1793709643096.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2><strong>Hurricane Season Isn’t Over Yet</strong></h2><p>Although tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30. For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.</p><p>WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.</p>

Adrian Hernandez

Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely

Screenshot20261103053831png-1793709751264.png

Adriannewnewjpeg-1774471713694.jpeg

<p>Florida has seen heavy rainfall and lots of flooding over the last few days. In fact, Melbourne, FL saw its wettest day EVER on record with 10.52" on Monday. This beat out the old record of 10.23" in 2017! We will see things taper off, but there will still be some localized areas of heavy rainfall for Tuesday.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2117270510123774111" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2117270510123774111"></div><p></p><p>In the last 24 hours, some locations in Florida have received up to a foot of rain! More rain continues through today.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-03 052924-1793708980288.png">Overall, we've already seen totals well over that. In fact, in Brevard County, a flash flood emergency was issued on Monday morning. These exceedingly rare advisories are especially dangerous. If one is ever issued in your area, you need to seek higher ground immediately.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 104349-1793634469029.png">Thankfully, coverage is likely to be more isolated across most of Florida. However, isolated downpours are not out of the question. Since most of the soils across the Sunshine State are already saturated, we could continue to see flash flooding through your Tuesday.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-03 05-31-51-1793709135798.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Check in with us on WeatherNation at :10 past the hour for your full eastern U.S. breakdown!</p>

Torrential Downpours Batter the Sunshine State

reddpng-1793671650042.png

Kevin Schneider

A021DDE71AA34C50BB5468289EA6B1D7jpeg-1699372868991.jpeg

<p>A frontal boundary has tapped into plentiful energy and wind shear, bringing the threat of severe storms to parts of the Midwest and the South today.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-03 043830-1793705927219.png">Severe storms developed on Monday, with multiple damaging winds and hail reports. As the front continues to the east, storms will continue to ride along this front. All severe modes will be possible, and heavy rainfall will also be a concern in any storms that develop. The threat will continue on Tuesday as the front moves east, bringing a severe threat from Missouri to Louisiana.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/2026-11-03 05-21-10-1793708498815.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Outlooks</h1><p>A <strong>Marginal</strong> risk for severe weather remains through Tuesday. Storms will press east along the frontal boundary, with damaging winds and a tornado possible with the strongest storms.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-03 052606-1793708820076.png"></p><p>Heavy rain could lead to isolated or scattered flash flooding. Areas around the Lower Mississippi Valley certainly need some rainfall, as extreme and exceptional drought has expanded recently, but efficient rainfall rates could lead to overwhelmed drainage systems.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-03 052647-1793708826564.png">Stay tuned to WeatherNation for the latest on this forecast. We've got you covered!</p>

Severe Storms Target the Plains & South

energyandshearpng-1793671083613.png

Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

TabanSharifijpeg-1679519287847.jpeg

<p>The Southwest is getting active once again with chances of flash flooding and river flooding. Friday, Las Vegas experienced some strong storms resulting in flooding and large hail falling across downtown. This was only the first of three low pressure system moving through the region this weekend, with the final two expected to deliver even heavier rain and mountain snow.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/VO_103026_RSW_HENDERSON, NV_GREAT VIDEO OF FLOODING WITH CAR STUCK_FB_MS_E103026-1793411988779.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Down south, heavy rain coming down in short periods of time created scenes like these. Unfortunately, folks having to be rescued from the floodwaters.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2116621232905101602" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2116621232905101602"></div><p>Through Sunday, the worst of it struck. WPC had issued a MODERATE (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding. It definitely materialized, as we got a TON of flood reports over the last 24 hours across the Southwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 050841-1793621537970.png"></p><p>This heavy rain led to more shocking video out of the region, as the water was rushing through areas near Payson, AZ!</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2117084682307391508" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2117084682307391508"></div><p>A PDS Flood Warning was even issued in southwest Colorado with expected river levels. While receding, we still saw a record-breaking crest at the San Juan River.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 045235-1793620396759.png"></p><p>Cities across Arizona saw a quarter of their yearly rainfall in just one day! 48-hour totals took some of the cities above 7 inches which is an absurd amount of rain to pick up in the Southwest!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 050517-1793621275056.png"></p><p>Stay tuned to WeatherNation, we've got you covered on all the impacts out west.</p>

Jackie Brown

Recapping the Significant Flooding in the Southwest

Screenshot20261102050841png-1793621332951.png

<p>Time to wax the skis and grab the winter gear; skiing is back for the season in the United States. Arapahoe Basin became the first major ski area in the country to open for the season on October 28th, with Keystone just behind, opening on Friday the 30th.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-01 103324-1793554416103.jpg"><br>Snow moved across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, dropping 9" for Mammoth Mountain in California.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-01 182656-1793582843471.png"><br>That energy is pushing farther east. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place through today across the Rockies. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/WINTER ALERTSSS -1793648263033.png">Thankfully, for the ski areas open this weekend, they have very high base elevations, with Keystone around 9,300 feet, but A-Basin and Wolf Creek are even higher, over 10,000 feet! Snow will start coming down heavily through Sunday morning, persisting well into Monday. Gusty winds could cause issues, however, with gusts over 40-50 mph possible at higher elevations. Chair lifts may need to be shut down during the gustiest of times.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/FORECCCSSSS-1793648343692.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Heavy snow will fall where ski resorts and areas have yet to open, but it will provide a nice base for higher elevation areas. Mountain travel could be difficult at times this weekend, especially in higher elevations.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/11/Screenshot 2026-11-02 051631-1793621806025.png"></p>

Skiing Opens in the Rockies, Heavy Snow on the Way

Screenshot20261102051657png-1793621824190.png

WeatherNation Meteorologists

headshotspng-1676305264677.png

<p>Hopefully the costume's picked out by now, the candy receptacle is made or purchased, and physical conditioning is in peak form! It's the week of Halloween, which has all of the spooky lovers in a good mood. The only thing that might get in the way is Mother Nature.</p><h1>TREATS</h1><p>Here is how temperatures are shaping up as kids are heading out for some goodies. Jackets will likely be needed with costumes across the Northeast and the Northwest.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/pic6-1793394324970.png"></p><p>Roughly, a line from the Front Range into the High Plains should be good to go if the timing/placement of this ridge is nailed down. That means we just have to prepare for the festivities, with some help from the Red Cross</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 080023-1793024061010.png">TRICKS</h1><p>This is where things get...tricky. Right now, the two different areas that are of some concern are the Southern Plains and the West. Another strong trough will pour onshore late in the week, keeping things out west pretty active. Ahead of that trough, plenty of moisture will get pulled north out of the Gulf, which could help fuel stronger storms, depending on how things come together.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/10313-1793484418419.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Along and downstream of that feature rippling through the Midwest and eventually the Mid-Atlantic might want to watch the timing on things, just to be sure an umbrella doesn't need to become a part of the costume too. It's too soon to know if it'll be a washout that affects plans all day or splash-n-dash storms that pick on a particular timeframe.</p><h1>FALL BACK</h1><p>Also, remember to set the clocks back an hour going into Sunday. Otherwise, you'll be waking up an hour early when you could have been sleeping off the candy coma instead. Might be a good weekend to replace the batteries in the smoke detectors and weather radios, too!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-31 154707-1793484346746.png">Or maybe take the day to ease into a new way of life, with sunsets closer to 5:00. Although latitude has something to do with it, location within your timezone has a lot to say too.</p><p></p>

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

Screenshot20261026075928png-1793023556862.png

Brittany Lockley

BrittanyLockleyjpeg-1679519515040.jpeg

<p>A surge of tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Vance (EPAC) is increasing the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of Texas as the state prepares for Halloween.<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">&nbsp;Even a tornado near Uvalde, TX Thursday gave locals a scary sight.</span></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115960860254642544" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115960860254642544"></div><p>Moisture streaming northward from the remnant tropical system is expected to interact with Gulf moisture, creating favorable conditions for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some communities could experience repeated rounds of heavy rain, increasing the potential for flooding in vulnerable areas.<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">&nbsp;Flood watches are in effect for the western half of Texas.</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Keep up with WeatherNation LIVE for the latest on Flash Flood Warnings: </span><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dDyjHc8DkA"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">YouTube LIVE STREAM</span></a></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-30 070255-1793365386255.png"></p><p>Most of the storms will move from West to East Texas by Friday night. After a brief break, a wave of energy from the Four Corners will sweep through early Saturday. Trick-or-Treating should be fine for much of West Texas, as it should all move out by Saturday night. </p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/tx-1793365981551.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Additional rainfall totals of up to an inch are possible across parts of the region, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms repeatedly develop over the same locations. These heavier downpours could overwhelm drainage systems and cause rapid rises in creeks, streams and low-lying roadways.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-30 070850-1793365759127.png"></p><p>Flash flooding remains one of the most dangerous weather-related threats because water levels can rise quickly, sometimes with little warning. Motorists should never attempt to cross water-covered roads, as even relatively shallow moving water can sweep vehicles away.<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">&nbsp;</span></p>

Patrick Crawford

Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

Screenshot20261029062024png-1793276443999.png

<p><strong>NEW HOME, JAMAICA </strong>- October 28, 2025, will be remembered as the day the island of Jamaica changed forever. Hurricane Melissa slammed into the western side of the island with 185 mph sustained winds, flattening areas of the island. Agencies have been reporting that insurance payments have been slow over the past year, leaving a shortfall of capital heading into what is the peak season for tourism there.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065457-1793192735289.png"></p><p>Hurricane Melissa devastated islands in the Caribbean in late October in 2025. Four months later, the National Hurricane Center has completed the post-storm analysis of Melissa, finding that the winds reached 190 mph, tying it with Hurricane Allen for the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin's history.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 070552-1793192770453.png"></p><p>The folks at the National Hurricane Center concluded that Melissa reached a central pressure of 892 mb at its strongest, which lashed the western side of Jamaica with high winds, incredible storm surge, and prolonged rainfall. All of these factors contributed to 95 known fatalities as of the report, released February 26, 2026.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095044-1772038470377.png"></p><p>The origins trace back to a tropical wave emerging off of the western coast of Africa on October 13th. By midnight on the 26th, Melissa had rapidly developed into a major hurricane. With weak steering, the forecast track was HIGHLY uncertain. Even with this uncertainty, the forecast track was incredibly accurate by the National Hurricane Center (below)</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/02/Screenshot 2026-02-25 095418-1772038476153.png">What's going to gain more attention is the upgrade to 190 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center, even though they didn't directly observe the winds specifically:</p><blockquote><p>"Based on a blend of satellite estimates, flight-level wind and dropsonde data"</p></blockquote><p></p><p>This ties it with Hurricane Allen from 1980, which was the previous strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Basin.</p><p>In March, the World Meteorological Organization <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/wmo-retires-the-name-melissa-following-devastating-impacts-last-fall">announced they were</a> retiring the name in the wake of the devastation. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 065440-1793193323670.png"></p><p>The storm also produced the strongest wind gust ever recorded: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/hurricane-melissa-produces-strongest-gust-recorded-in-a-hurricane"><strong><u>Watch Here</u></strong></a></p><p>Official Report from the National Hurricane Center: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf">READ IT HERE</a><br>Josh Morgerman reliving Melissa: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2009330402310381611?s=20">WATCH IT HERE</a></p>

Rob Bradley

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

VO_102825_TRACKINGMELISSA_INSANEVIEWOFMELISSAVERYCLOSETOLANDFALL_TW_CIRA_CSU_MS_102825ezgifcomvideotogifconvertergif-1772039362207.gif

<p>This week, the ocean is coming to low-lying areas near you! King tides are back for the next several months, which will lead to sunny day ocean water flooding for vulnerable areas at times. <br></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115058432051126377" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115058432051126377"></div><p><br>The exact highest tide will vary for different locations, but through the end of the next several months, when the moon is nearly full, high and low tides will be elevated. In 2026 into 2027, this will occur during the end of the month, through January.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115783209619210352" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115783209619210352"></div><h1>What Causes King Tides?</h1><p>The Earth's orbit around the Sun is offset a bit, meaning the distance to the Sun varies throughout the year. The Earth's closest point to the Sun occurs in early January, meaning the gravitational effects of the Sun on the oceans increase through early January. When the moon is full and closer to the Earth (perigee), this adds another pull of gravity and increases the tides further. This will occur toward the end of October, November, December, and January, increasing the range of tides.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 053902-1792843085873.png"></p><p>In October, the full moon occurs on the 26th while the moon's closest point to Earth happens just a few days later. This will help create some of the highest tides of the year for many areas along the U.S. East Coast.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 054717-1792843101424.png"></p><h1>East Coast</h1><h2>Florida</h2><p>Coastal flood alerts are in effect for the Atlantic Coast of Florida, all the way up into Virginia. High tide flooding could leave vulnerable areas under a foot or two of water at times, leading to various impacts, including closed roads.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 1-1793279864445.png"></p><p></p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2115171683250344379" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2115171683250344379"></div><p>Florida's highest tide cycles of the fall season will occur in October and November, with the highest tides of October's cycle happened Tuesday morning. Low-lying areas will have several rounds of flooding this week, so it's best to avoid low-lying areas during high tide times.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 2-1793279914610.png"></p><h2>Carolinas</h2><p>The latest forecast is showing the tides are decreasing in height over the next few days. While this is good news, if you are traveling along the coast stay vigilant driving through flood waters!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 3-1793279979406.png"></p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 055652-1792844169803.png">Mid-Atlantic &amp; Northeast</h2><p>Minor coastal flooding is expected in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the October cycle of king tides. Low-lying areas could see flooding inundate areas with about a foot of water. In New England, the highest tides should occur during the November and December cycles.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061926-1792844685757.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061930-1792844699823.png"></p><h1>West Coast</h1><h2>California</h2><p>California is already experiencing elevated tides due to <span style="color: black">El Niño and a surge of warm water up the coast, </span><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/incoming-kelvin-wave-to-southern-california-one-piece-of-the-el-nino-puzzle"><strong><u><span style="color: black">known as a Marine Kelvin Wave</span></u></strong></a><span style="color: black">. Several large wave events this fall have damaged numerous homes along the coast as well. As a result, King Tide impacts in California could be more significant this season compared to past years. Alerts have been issued from San Diego up past the Bay Area.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 5-1793280107889.png"></p><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063244-1792845194824.png"></p><p>The highest tides of the October cycle occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, though the highest tides of the year are expected in December.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/WEB 4-1793280080491.png"></p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 061945-1792844713149.png">Oregon &amp; Washington</h2><p>The highest tides of the year for Washington and Oregon are expected later this year as well, during the December high tide cycle. A full "supermoon" will aid in making these tides quite impactful.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 063406-1792845257233.png"></p><p></p>

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Week

Screenshot20261024053010png-1792841413903.png

<p>Things are getting active again after a long break from storms in the Midwest. A developing area of low pressure looks like it might have all of the ingredients to spin up a few tornadoes, some of which could even be strong later this afternoon.</p><h1>SETUP</h1><p>As this area of low pressure comes together, storms will ignite in the heat of the day. While it won't be Spring- or Summer-like energy to tap into, it looks like it will be just enough as temperatures make a run at record highs in Wisconsin.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041715-1793183302202.png"></p><p>The biggest concerning ingredient is the amount of wind shear present, with winds at the surface out of the south or even southeast, turning to the southwest with height.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 041748-1793182843267.png">Storms are expected to be organized shortly after firing in the afternoon. Because of the high amounts of shear, all modes of severe weather will be on the table. That includes the potential for an EF-2+ tornado. Have ways to get alerts as we go through our Wednesday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 063732-1793191060076.jpg"></p><h1>Timing</h1><p>Because we're expecting storms to fire near the surface low, they might go up and become severe in a hurry. The severe threat is active now into the evening hours.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/BARON 5-1793224753314.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p>

Jesse Kelley

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Cities Today

Screenshot20261028063706jpg-1793191035701.jpeg

<p>After becoming a hurricane last Friday, <strong>Vance</strong> has weakened to a tropical storm. It's moved far enough away from the Mexican coast to take most of the winds, but some rain continues to graze some parts of the coastline. Its slow movement will mean long-lasting coastal wave action and erosion potential. The good news is, it should weaken as it enters an unfavorable environment early this week. A landfall in Mexico late this week is possible.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035927-1793181579785.png">Tropical Storm <strong>Olana</strong> formed in the Central Pacific Ocean this week but has since become post-tropical. This storm is west of the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaii can see multiple inches of rain from the moisture from Olana through Saturday. Here's the latest forecast from our Global American model.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-28 035952-1793181606298.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p>The Eastern Pacific has set a new record for the most energetic season since record-keeping began. The ACE has surpassed 318, which was the previous record set in 2018.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-27 192512-1793150722562.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Nino continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Nino is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropical Storm Vance Weakens in the Pacific

Screenshot20261028035903png-1793181547063.png

<p>The cooler weather is finding places to go finally! It's that time of year to look ahead to any chance of flakes we get! This one might get more hopes up of turning Mount Rushmore into Mount Slushmore.</p><p>A cold front has dropped temperatures from record territory into an area where we could get back to freezing. We won't stay below freezing all day, which starts to complicate matters. Moisture has been streaming in behind this front, pouring out of the Four Corners region. As the core of this upper-level low moves in and drops temperatures that much more, we could change some rain over to snow.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 185415-1792976060412.png"></p><p>However, there are a few issues with what some models are projecting (2+" of snow).</p><ol><li><p>Temperatures won't get all the way or well below freezing</p></li><li><p>Snowing during daylight hours is tough to accumulate. Even though the sun won't be "shining" it adds energy to the atmosphere making it harder for snow to stick while it's up.</p></li><li><p>Rain and snow falling together makes it harder for the snow to stick. Falling raindrops will either melt the snow itself, or leave puddling behind which melts falling snowflakes.</p></li></ol><p>Just because temperatures are in the vicinity of freezing, not all snowy setups are created equal. If this were a month or two later with a lower sun angle and slightly cooler temperatures, we could be cooking with gas! But alas, rain will mix with snow throughout the day, trying to accumulate on grassy, elevated surfaces. We might get lucky and pick up an inch in a spot or two, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Roads by Monday night could see a few slick spots.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-26 123650-1793039815143.png"></p>

Mount Slushmore? Taking a look at Dakota Snow Chances

Screenshot20261026123617png-1793039778926.png

<p>A powerful low pressure system has been moving through the Southwest since Wednesday, producing numerous flash flood events and severe weather. A tornado hit a few homes in Heber-Overgaard (Arizona) on Wednesday, causing significant damage, while hailstones larger than golf balls have been falling at times. The heavy rainfall rates have led to several significant flash flood events, like the one below, including several calls for swift water rescues.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2113405036651008510" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2113405036651008510"></div><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-24 083001-1792852233932.png">Unfortunately, the San Juan River has caused damage in multiple areas, from Pagosa Springs down through northern New Mexico. The River hit record flood stage in Farmington and Ship Rock. The river is expected to get back below action stage by Monday.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 060440-1792922695600.png"></p><h2>SEVERE THREAT</h2><p>Severe storm outlooks have been issued throughout the weekend across portions of New Mexico, Texas, and Colorado. The primary threats will be hail damage, strong winds, and an isolated tornado or two. Threats will linger through the overnight hours into Monday before dissipating. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 185907-1792976350739.png"></p><h2>RAINFALL &amp; FLOOD POTENTIAL</h2><p>The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is highlighting areas from New Mexico out into the Southern Plains that could see additional flash flooding. The corridor of heaviest rain looks to aim at southeast Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 185942-1792976386515.png">A few flood watches will remain in place through Monday morning.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 190044-1792976460995.png">As always, if you encounter water over a road, especially at night, turn around and find another way around!</p>

Major River Flooding Causes Damage; Another Day of Storms in New Mexico

Screenshot20261025185825png-1792976307285.png

<h3>WHAT TO EXPECT</h3><p>A ridge of high pressure lingers, keeping temperatures above average across the central U.S. Temperatures across the south will run 5°-10° above average, but in the northern Plains and Midwest, 10°- 20° above average! This will make for some warm weather for any fall activities you have planned.</p><h3>NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST:</h3><p>It was another warm October afternoon on Saturday across the High Plains. A sharp cold front is dropping through the area this weekend, however. Check out the highs in the forecast through Monday. Minneapolis will only reach 49° Monday afternoon.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 061228-1792923161399.png"></p><p>The Central and Southern Plains won't feel as significant of impacts from this front. Temperatures will linger above average, in the 70s and 80s, through the weekend. However, there's some signal that temperatures will cool off late this week 👀</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 061314-1792923207632.png"></p><p>This year has been a good reminder to enjoy the cool air when it does make an appearance. As we look ahead to the last few days of October, there is high confidence that much of the country will remain above average. That looks to include and Trick or Treaters if the pattern holds up!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/Screenshot 2026-10-25 061339-1792923233181.png"></p>

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

1png-1792893718804.png

Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

JackieBrownjpeg-1679518619427.jpeg

<h1>SETUP</h1><p>The National Hurricane Center was watching the coastal low that brought many impacts to the eastern U.S.. Josephine quickly became a subtropical storm. As quickly as this storm became subtropical, it changed to Post-Tropical. Here is a look at the latest information.</p><h1>JOSEPHINE FORECAST</h1><p>Josephine is no longer being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. This storm is post-tropical, and that means it is basically a low-pressure system in the Atlantic waters. The impacts will be diminishing through Friday morning along the Atlantic Seaboard.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 5-1792702093000.png"></p><h3>FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS</h3><p>Wave heights between 10-20 feet will be possible at times, making for dangerous conditions.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792702130751.png"></p><h1>IMPACTS</h1><p>High winds with Josephine will wear down many beaches along the eastern seaboard. What's of most concern are the beaches in North Carolina, which stick out farthest, and places like Virginia, which will have to endure days of breezy winds agitating the seas. Waves of 10-15 feet can be expected, which will help push a few feet of seawater onshore into normally dry stretches of the coast.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/10/PIC 4-1792702219831.png">More updates on this evolving setup will be coming up all day and night on WeatherNation.</p><h1></h1>

Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely

Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watchin

Torrential Downpours Batter the Sunshine State

Torrential Downpours Batter the Sunshine Stat

Severe Storms Target the Plains & South

Severe Storms Target the Plains & South

Recapping the Significant Flooding in the Southwest

Recapping the Significant Flooding in the Sou

Skiing Opens in the Rockies, Heavy Snow on the Way

Skiing Opens in the Rockies, Heavy Snow on th

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a Treat?

HALLOWEEN 2026: Is the weather a Trick or a T

Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Halloween

Flash Flood Concerns Across Texas Ahead of Ha

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall in Jamaica

Anniversary: Hurricane Melissa Makes Landfall

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Week

Sunny Day Flooding; King Tides Surge This Wee

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Cities Today

Tornado Threat Develops Around the Twin Citie

Tropical Storm Vance Weakens in the Pacific

Tropical Storm Vance Weakens in the Pacific

Mount Slushmore? Taking a look at Dakota Snow Chances

Mount Slushmore? Taking a look at Dakota Snow

Major River Flooding Causes Damage; Another Day of Storms in New Mexico

Major River Flooding Causes Damage; Another D

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperatures Across the Central U.S. This Week

Warmer Than Average: Above-Normal Temperature

Josephine is Now Post-Tropical

Josephine is Now Post-Tropical