Brittany Lockley

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A moisture-rich weather pattern is expected to keep portions of Texas and the western Gulf Coast under the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the coming days. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are forecast to develop over many of the same locations, increasing the potential for flooding, particularly in central and southern Texas.&nbsp;Governor Greg Abbot to activated emergency response resources for 59 Texas counties. As a result, the Texas National Guard and the Department of Public Safety will be deployed as needed.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077104136101761469" src="https://x.com/GovAbbottPress/status/2077104136101761469"></div>The unsettled pattern is being fueled by a persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with weak steering currents in the atmosphere. Because winds aloft are relatively light, thunderstorms will move slowly and may repeatedly track over the same areas. This process, known as training, can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time and quickly overwhelm creeks, rivers, and drainage systems.&nbsp;Some of the greatest concerns are focused on the Texas Hill Country, where steep terrain and fast-responding waterways make the region especially susceptible to flash flooding. Even a few hours of intense rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and residents near streams and low-water crossings. Locations that have already received recent rainfall will be more vulnerable because saturated soils have a reduced ability to absorb additional water.&nbsp;Flood Watches are in place through Friday, with life-threatening flooding possible. Rainfall rates of 1"-2" per hour are possible, with 8+ inches of rain possible over the next few days. Cities like Kerrville, Fort Stockton, and Austin are included in the Flood Watch.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084808-1784126894016.png">The threat extends beyond the Hill Country into parts of South Texas, where slow-moving thunderstorms may produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning and isolated strong wind gusts. Urban areas could experience localized street flooding as rainfall rates exceed the capacity of storm drains, while rural communities may see rapid rises on smaller creeks and rivers.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/0715-1784126945683.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy rain will be possible, with the highest totals around the Big Bend, with isolated totals of a foot possible for some parts. Please use caution and never attempt to drive through flood waters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084913-1784126958417.png">There has already been over 13" of rainfall recorded.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084924-1784126969952.png">The active weather pattern will linger for several days before gradually shifting later in the week. Until then, abundant Gulf moisture and daytime heating will continue to provide the ingredients for repeated rounds of heavy rain, keeping the flash flood threat elevated across much of the region.&nbsp;The Weather Prediction Center has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. The WPC has issued a rare, HIGH risk (level 4 out of 4) for significant to catastrophic flooding through Wednesday. 6-10" of rain has already been recorded, and an additional 3-6" with isolated totals up to 10" are possible. This includes places such as Rocksprings, Uvalde, and Del Rio. High-risk days account for 80% of all flood-related damages.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034305-1784108612070.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034313-1784108621969.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034318-1784108631241.png">Residents in flood-prone areas should remain alert for Flash Flood Watches and Warnings and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways. Water levels can rise quickly during slow-moving thunderstorms, and even shallow, fast-moving water can sweep vehicles off the road.&nbsp;For more info on this forecast, you can tune into the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour.

Jackie Brown

Texas Facing Major Flood Threat This week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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Dangerous heat and record high temperatures continue across the High Plains through the Upper Midwest, eventually moving into the Northeast for this week. A new record high temperature was broken in Rapid City, South Dakota, on Tuesday.ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS were broken across the Western United States on Sunday, July 12th, including cities such as Billings, Montana, reaching a scorching 111° (searing the previous all-time record of 107°) and Salt Lake City, Utah, reaching a toasty 109°, which beat out the previous record set in September of 2022 at 107°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot20260712193832png-1783906806701.png" alt="main">Heat Alerts remain in place through Thursday across many areas throughout the northern tier of the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034042-1784108452046.png">Heat safety will be a continued concern going forward. Be sure to stay hydrated and keep looking in the back seat before locking the car. The heatwave continues for the High Plains and Upper Midwest but has shifted to include the northeastern United States through tomorrow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034104-1784108476710.png">Temperatures in the northeast will be widespread in the 90s, with a few locations hitting the century mark.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034129-1784108502754.png"><h2>Southwest</h2>Dangerous Heat is also being sought across the Southwest this week. Heat alerts have been expanded across California, from the Bay Area to San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034212-1784108548489.png">Temperatures will be above normal with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. The added layer of humidity will make it difficult for your body to cool off efficiently and effectively.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034239-1784108571374.png">Here are a few heat safety tips for people affected by the heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/pic5-1783634512392.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Historic Heatwave Hits the Northern Rockies, California Heat Expands

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Kevin Schneider

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Two areas of potential tropical development are now being monitored in the Atlantic, while in the Pacific, Elida continues to churn amongst three other areas with potential to develop.<h1>Atlantic</h1>A stalled front will meet a decaying TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) Low, with the potential for a surface based low to form on either side of Florida. Development of the system is possible, but it will depend on where the low forms. Some heavy rain is expected in the area regardless of tropical development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 094851-1784130723951.png">The other area we're monitoring is off the coast of Africa, where a vigorous tropical wave has emerged. Development of this system is possible in the short term, but after a few days it is expected to encounter subsidence and dry air, which should limit or end organization.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 132637-1784143610248.png"><h1>Pacific</h1><h2>ELIDA</h2>Cross another name off the list in the Pacific, we've got Elida! It earned a name early Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure finally closed off. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 095722-1784131115424.png">Elida isn't expected to impact land, but could become the first hurricane of the season!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 095934-1784131182730.png">There are three other areas to monitor in the Pacific Ocean. One looks like it will form sometime early next week, in the footsteps of Elida. The other two are potentially forming south of Hawaii. Both of those will stay south of the islands, but could bring some indirect impacts like elevated trade winds or waves.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 133046-1784143854129.png">

Rob Bradley

Two New Tropical Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

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As temperatures have soared across the Northern U.S., dry conditions have allowed new wildfires. These wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, will send extremely dense smoke into the U.S. on Wednesday. Forecast models show thick, dense smoke sneaking into the Great Lakes before moving across to the Northeast. Below is the latest on the timing and intensity of smoke that is expected across the U.S. Air quality dropped on Tuesday night, and air quality changes are expected as the smoke moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 033756-1784108288952.png">The heat, elevated ozone levels, and anticipated smoke have prompted Air Quality alerts across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The air quality will continue to deteriorate as smoke moves into the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 033906-1784108359854.png">Smoke in the air can bring about all sorts of health impacts. Make sure you are protecting yourself and your loved ones.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 161806-1784067504415.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

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After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, the Southwest is beginning its transition into the annual North American Monsoon Season. A shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada. Arizona itself saw some stronger storms with wind gusts up to 78 mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 041114-1784023886071.png">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031441-1784106894823.png">The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031553-1784106964189.png">Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud, and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms. There are Marginal and Slight risks for excessive rainfall and flooding over currently burning fires across Utah and Colorado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031645-1784107029728.png">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

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<h1>WHAT TO EXPECT </h1>The SPC has issued a severe outlook for the overnight hours across portions of New England. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible as a cold front moves through. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/overnighss-1784081785591.png">TIMING As the frontal boundary moves to the south, storms will develop through the overnight hours. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to be strong to severe. By mid-morning, things look to be calm, but more isolated storms can pop up in the afternoon once again on Wednesday. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/cold front moves throuiggg-1784081898924.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>How weird is it to be talking about severe weather this far north in New England? A little odd. The last Enhanced risk for the state of Vermont, for instance, was almost two years ago! The last High risk was back in May of 1998!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 035709-1784023051718.png">More on your full Eastern Regional Forecast can always be found :10 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Rare Enhanced Severe Threat For New England

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074923974841041110" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074923974841041110"></div>Hazy skies will be hovering over portions of the Gulf and the Southeastern United States as we head into the workweek. Why is it so hazy? Saharan dust will be sent flying over the region at times, thick enough to make a difference in the color of the sun and potentially to air quality. Expect some of the thickest dust to hover over Florida and push into Texas this week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/2026-07-14 04-00-34-1784023254099.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This is not unusual for this time of year. Outbreaks of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) typically occur in the Atlantic during the summer months as strong westerly waves move off of Africa, sending dust out over the Atlantic. Depending on the speed and intensity of the SAL outbreak, these plumes of dry, dusty air can reach parts of the U.S. at times, even the middle of the country!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 083614-1783521420831.png"><h1>Heat</h1>Hot and humid conditions will persist in the Southeast while the Saharan Air moves through. While the SAL does dry out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the bottom 5,000 feet is typically unaffected, meaning humidity won't change much even though there may be fewer storms.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 040117-1784023294181.png"> </h1>

Saharan Dust and Excessive Heat Impact the Southeast

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

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Several rounds of severe weather have been rolling off the Front Range into the Great Plains this week! A mid-level trough sparked severe weather Friday afternoon, bringing damaging winds and hail. At the Denver International Airport, wind gusted up to 72 mph.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736213990.png"><h1>FRIDAY:</h1>Damaging winds will be the primary threat along the Front Range and east into the Plains. Large hail is possible as well.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 063841-1783687129662.png"><h2>Timing</h2>Storms continue to push eastward into the Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas for the late hours. Storms should fizzle out by daybreak Saturday morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1783736334233.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>A few locations could get hit a couple of times by thunderstorms this week, which means that some areas may see some locally heavier rainfall totals. Keep an eye on flood alerts in your area. With repeated rounds of storms, you may be at risk for flash flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-10 064026-1783687247364.png">Flash flooding will be possible for many areas, though it will be more likely for some than others. Areas in dark green in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (below) will have better chance to see scattered flash flooding incidents.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783736373460.png">For more on this active forecast, be sure to join us on WeatherNation!

Jesse Kelley

Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front Range

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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The Aspen Acres fire continues to burn in Southern Colorado. Evacuations remain in place but containment is increasing around Pueblo.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074856035924205678" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074856035924205678"></div>The Babylon and Cottonwood fires burning in Utah are now among some of the largest fires the state has ever seen.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1783633931789.png">Numerous additional wildfires continue to burn across Utah, Colorado, and Arizona, which have scorched tens of thousands of acres over the past week. Below is the most recent acreage of the larger fires in Utah and Colorado, along with their containment.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061131-1783603203805.png"><h1>Fire Outlooks</h1>The fire weather outlooks are minimal as we head through the week, but there is a chance for some dry thunderstorms across the Front Range of the Rockies this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061724-1783603442497.png">Heat will build into the weekend so make sure you are doing your part to not be the problem!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 043144-1782556311355.png">Residents are encouraged to stay informed, follow local evacuation orders, and do their part to help prevent the start and spread of wildfires this summer.

Patrick Crawford

Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, CO Fires Continue to Grow

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Colorado State University researchers have lowered their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as atmospheric conditions become increasingly favorable for the development of El Niño, a climate pattern that typically suppresses tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.&nbsp;The updated forecast now projects&nbsp;nine named storms,&nbsp;four hurricanes, and&nbsp;one major hurricane&nbsp;of Category 3 strength or higher. While those numbers are below the long-term seasonal average, the outlook reflects activity across the entire Atlantic Basin. It does not indicate where storms may eventually track or make landfall.&nbsp;The expected increase in El Niño is one of the primary reasons behind the reduced forecast. During El Niño events, stronger-than-normal upper-level winds spread across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, increasing vertical wind shear. This hostile environment can disrupt the structure of developing tropical systems by separating thunderstorms from their low-level circulation, making it more difficult for storms to strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095127-1783525916256.png">Despite the anticipated increase in wind shear, ocean temperatures across parts of the Atlantic remain warmer than average. Warm water serves as the fuel source for tropical cyclones, meaning any storm that develops in a favorable pocket of lower wind shear could still intensify. How these competing factors evolve during the peak of hurricane season will play a major role in determining the basin’s overall activity.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095236-1783525964091.png">The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs from mid-August through October, when sea surface temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are generally most supportive of tropical development. Although seasonal forecasts help estimate how active a season may be, they cannot predict where individual storms will form or who may be impacted.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 095047-1783525931294.png">Residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastline need to prepare now rather than focus solely on the seasonal numbers. History has shown that even quieter hurricane seasons can produce devastating landfalls if a single storm reaches a populated coastline.&nbsp;

Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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NEW JERSEY - Heavy rainfall rates of around 2 inches per hour produced an intense burst of rain in a short period of time. These downpours caused a partial roof collapse Monday morning at a BJ's Wholesale Club in Ocean Township, New Jersey. No injuries were reported.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-06 152920-1783374268634.png"><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2074629538055659936" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2074629538055659936"></div>Today, the SPC has issued a MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe weather across the Middle Atlantic. Storms will fire up in the early afternoon and dissipate by midnight. Flooding is not as large of a threat for the next few days, but isolated areas of flooding will be possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07081-1783519594658.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Another MARGINAL risk for severe weather has already been added for Thursday as another front brings additional storms to the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-08 080652-1783519616821.png">For more details on the threats and timing of these storms, tune in to WeatherNation :10 past the hour for your Eastern Regional Forecast.

After Flooding in the NE, Strong Storms Stick Around

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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SOUTHEAST - It's been muggy and stormy in the southeast and as we wrap up the holiday-long weekend, that trend will continue. Forecast highs and heat index values through Monday will likely reach the triple digits all across the southeast. Cities like Charleston, SC, will be feeling like 110 through Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-05 144142-1783284197832.png">This heat and humidity will also help to drive diurnal thunderstorms (storms that are driven by daytime heating). There is a marginal risk across the southeast for severe weather through Monday morning but as we head into the day on Monday thunderstorms will continue to pop through the southeastern U.S.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/07-05 rse bams-1783284239258.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Muggy and Stormy in the South

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An expansive ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across much of the eastern United States through the Fourth of July weekend, producing another round of dangerous heat and humidity for millions of people. The stagnant weather pattern has allowed temperatures to climb well above average for several days, with little overnight relief in many locations.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-04 094536-1783179947834.png">The heat is being driven by a strong upper-level ridge, often referred to as a heat dome. As air slowly sinks beneath the ridge, it compresses and warms, leading to widespread sunshine and hotter temperatures at the surface. With the ridge remaining firmly in place, daytime highs will climb into the 90s and lower 100s across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-04 094647-1783180021101.png">Humidity will make conditions even more dangerous. Dew points well into the 70s will push heat index values into the triple digits across many communities, making it feel significantly hotter than the actual air temperature. Warm overnight lows, with some locations struggling to fall below the upper 70s, will provide little opportunity for the body to recover from the daytime heat, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-04 093025-1783180256172.png">Several locations could challenge or break daily temperature records as the prolonged stretch of excessive heat continues. The combination of July sunshine, light winds, and persistent subsidence beneath the ridge will allow temperatures to rise quickly each afternoon.We spoke with the National Weather Service in Philadelphia/Mt. Holly to get some perspective on just how unusual this heat is for the northeast.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PlvJoWIawEw" start="0"></iframe></div>Records could be going down when the official highs come in this afternoon. Cities like Roanoke and Raleigh have a good chance at breaking a record high for the 4th of July.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1783174506669.jpg">A gradual pattern change is expected later this weekend as a cold front begins to press southward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The front will usher in slightly cooler and less humid air behind it, offering relief to some communities early next week. However, areas farther south are expected to remain under the influence of summer heat as the ridge weakens but does not disappear entirely.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-04 100037-1783180846117.png">With millions expected to spend time outdoors for Independence Day celebrations, meteorologists urge residents to take the heat seriously. Staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks in air-conditioned spaces and limiting strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day can help reduce the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.&nbsp;Heat waves become deadly when they are extended in duration, and complicated by overnight lows struggling to cool off enough. Be sure to mix in plenty of water this holiday weekend. Know the signs to look out for in friends and family.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 043943-1782556806519.png">

Persistent Heat Dome to Keep Much of the Eastern U.S. Sweltering Through the Holiday Weekend

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Early in the season, we watch closer to the coasts here at home for development in the Hurricane Season. Until the waves coming off the coast of Africa start to fly and quit losing the battle to Saharan Dust, old fronts are the leading source of development.Currently, a frontal boundary moving through the southeastern U.S. has prompted a marginal risk for severe weather across portions of the Southeast. Main threat will be damaging winds. Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center was monitoring an area of potential tropical interest. That area is no longer expected to form into a tropical system. For now, the only name we have crossed off for the Atlantic season is Arthur.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 063531-1782563982336.jpg">In the Eastern Pacific, on the other hand, Tropical Storm Douglas formed on Wednesday. This system is set to strengthen a little bit before weakening over open waters, with no impacts to land.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/douglassssss-1782952012931.png">

Slow-Moving Front No Longer Expected to Develop Tropically, Monitoring Eastern Pacific

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As Summer settles in across the Central U.S., MCSs, also known as Mesoscale Convective Systems, become more prevalent. These large clusters of thunderstorms can organize and persist for hours, travel hundreds of miles, and produce all modes of severe weather. The weather pattern over the next few days will favor repeated rounds of these storm complexes across the Plains &amp; Midwest.Strong and severe thunderstorms remain possible in the Mid South over the next few days as storms ride a ridge of high pressure. This will target the same areas through the end of the week to see severe weather. <h4><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/what-is-an-mcs">WHAT IS AN MCS: READ MORE HERE</a></h4><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/BARON 5-1782612588554.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>For the overnight, a few storms could still be severe across parts of the Ohio Valley before being steering into the Carolinas for Sunday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-27 133648-1782589019330.png">These storms will dump rain on the same areas, increasing the risk of flooding in some of the same spots that already flooded earlier this week. For more on the flooding risk, read this <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/severe-weather-returns-this-weekend">related article</a> on the flood potential.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/1-1782612765591.png">

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Texas Facing Major Flood Threat This week

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Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, In

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Rare Enhanced Severe Threat For New England

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Saharan Dust and Excessive Heat Impact the So

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Another Day of Storms for the Plains & Front

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Babylon Fire in UT Surpasses 100,000 Acres, C

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Colorado State University Scales Back 2026 At

After Flooding in the NE, Strong Storms Stick Around

After Flooding in the NE, Strong Storms Stick

Muggy and Stormy in the South

Muggy and Stormy in the South

Persistent Heat Dome to Keep Much of the Eastern U.S. Sweltering Through the Holiday Weekend

Persistent Heat Dome to Keep Much of the East

Slow-Moving Front No Longer Expected to Develop Tropically, Monitoring Eastern Pacific

Slow-Moving Front No Longer Expected to Devel

'MCS' Season Brings Severe and Flooding Threats Across the Southeast

'MCS' Season Brings Severe and Flooding Threa