Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Impacted by La Niña

news image
Special Stories
29 May 2024 12:30 PM

Hurricane season is less than one week away and forecasts are calling for a much above-average season in the tropical Atlantic. Forecasters at NOAA expect 17-25 named storms and forecasters at Colorado State University expect 23 named storms. The official list of hurricane names only has a total of 21 names (A-W) so if we were to see the forecasts pan out, an alternate list of names would be used, starting back at the letter "A". So what is behind this above-average forecast?

It is the ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, a global sea surface and atmosphere pattern interaction that impacts forecast patterns in the United States. The forecast impacts are most commonly felt during the Winter months in the northern hemisphere, but the ENSO cycle also has impacts on the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.

According to experts at the Climate Prediction Center, "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in [June]. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance)". La Niña will likely continue through the end of hurricane season on November 30th. Our most recent La Niña Hurricane seasons were 2020, 2021 and 2022. All three were above average for hurricane activity.

We typically see elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic tropics during La Niña events because the temperature profiles and interactions between the ocean surface and atmosphere lead to less shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shear rips apart hurricanes, so the less of it, the better the environment is for storms to develop and be sustained.

Remember these are forecasts and projections but no storms have officially been named yet. It is important to stay up to date on the latest tropical conditions throughout the season with WeatherNation.

All Weather News
More
Tropical Area in the Gulf Could Bring 18"+ of Rain to Florida

Tropical Area in the Gulf Could Bring 18"+ of Rain to Florida

Florida has been soaked by tropical-Esq downp

12 Jun 2024 4:30 PM
Tornadoes, Golf-Ball Sized Hail in Twin Cities Wednesday

Tornadoes, Golf-Ball Sized Hail in Twin Cities Wednesday

There is a "significant" severe weather threa

12 Jun 2024 4:25 PM
Major Heat Bakes the West - Fire Danger Elevated

Major Heat Bakes the West - Fire Danger Elevated

WEST - Another ridge of high pressure has set

12 Jun 2024 4:00 PM
More Severe Chances to Close Out the Week

More Severe Chances to Close Out the Week

An cut-off area of low pressure off the west

12 Jun 2024 3:45 PM
Record Heat, Storms Ahead for the East Coast Friday

Record Heat, Storms Ahead for the East Coast Friday

A warmup is coming to the East Coast, and not

12 Jun 2024 3:05 PM
"Extreme Heat" for the Midwest Monday

"Extreme Heat" for the Midwest Monday

Extreme Heat is in the forecast for the Midwe

12 Jun 2024 10:15 AM
New Fire Breaks Out in Colorado Mountains

New Fire Breaks Out in Colorado Mountains

A new wildfire has started in Lake County, in

12 Jun 2024 2:45 AM