Caitlin Connell

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Thanks to a stubborn, slow-moving low-pressure system, a large portion of the Great Plains will deal with a storm threat over the next few days. Saturday's risk reaches from the Canadian border through Minnesota and North Dakota, and down into the Front Range of Colorado. There's a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) in parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. All forms of severe weather will be possible, but towards the slight risk is where there's a tornado threat. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-27 05-12-42-1722078798363.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As mentioned above, the heightened tornado threat lives up north on Saturday. Parts of I-94 and I-29 are under the tornado risk. It's not a large risk, by any means, but we do still have the chance of seeing enough spin in the atmosphere to see a tornado or two touch down. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/tor-1722079384124.jpg">Scattered rain will be possible at any point on Sunday. The severe aspect starts to ramp back up in the afternoon and evening hours. For any outdoor plans, have your severe weather plan ready to go at a moment's notice, and be prepared to take shelter if need be. Another slight risk has been issued in central South Dakota. Sunday's storm chances will mainly be over the wind and hail threat. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-27 05-12-56-1722079124411.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As a lot of the storm energy pushes to the east on Monday, so does the severe weather risk. There's a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) reaching from Minneapolis to St. Louis. Right now, it looks like storms will be more isolated compared to Saturday and Sunday, but of course, that may change as we move forward. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/spc day 3-1722079715656.jpg">Stay with WeatherNation for more on this forecast.

Great Plains Multi-Day Severe Threat

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Summer of 1993, New England Dragway. That's when and where Steve knew he wanted to become a meteorologist. More than 20 years later he is extremely fortunate and blessed to be able to live his childhood dream. As a lover of math and science, Steve had a consistent interest in weather in elementary, middle, and high school before discovering you can major in meteorology. He attended Lyndon State College in Vermont where he received a bachelor's in meteorology-broadcasting and associate's in television news. He has worked as a meteorologist and reporter in Winchester, VA, Burlington, VT, and most recently in West Palm Beach, FL. He's recognized by the American Meteorological Society with the Certification of Broadcast Meteorologists.

Steven Glazier

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The Southern United States has exhausted its list of descriptions for the wet weather. It's raining heavily, with terms like "it's raining cats and dogs," "it's a gully washer," and "it's a toad strangler" being used. Whatever the phrase, it's been consistently wet across the Deep South and Southeast. The cause? Well, it is due to a slow-moving boundary known as a stationary front.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-27 05-12-43-1722078812421.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The image above shows that stationary front, depicted by the alternating blue and red colors. By definition, a stationary front is a boundary separating weather air masses that are moving less than five miles per hour. Due to the slow movement, additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the South and Southeast U.S. through this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-27 045204-1722078579467.png">Drier conditions are on the way. This stubborn front will begin to move just a little bit more through the weekend, allowing some towns and cities to get drier weather. However, another few inches of rain will be on its way to sections of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-27 05-13-59-1722078881276.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Relentless Rainfall Ongoing in the South

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Wild developments have surfaced from the state of California this week after local authorities arrested a man believed to be tied to the Park Fire. The fire began Wednesday, July 24 and within a day, had grown to more than 124,000 acres with little containment. Now, the fire is burning more than 300,000 acres. The fire is burning across Butte and Tehama County, north of Chico. According to the Butte County District Attorney, a 42-year-old man was arrested early Thursday morning by arson investigators for allegedly pushing a car that was on fire into a gully, spreading flames that caused the Park Fire. Here is the full press release.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Butte County Press Release-1721946423056.jpeg">The fire quickly grew after being ignited. About 6 hours after its initiation, around sunset Wednesday, the size of the fire was estimated at around 6,000 acres. The following morning, at dawn on Thursday, the estimated size was around 45,000 acres. By Thursday afternoon, about 24 hours after the fire started, the size ballooned up to more than 70,000 acres. The fire continued to grow overnight. The map below shows how much the fire activity has grown. Note: The tiny, circular orange area was Wednesday's burn scar, the larger mustard-colored area was from Thursday, and Friday's growth is highlighted in yellow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/fire-1722075882197.jpg">The fire has been growing north, burning land across the mountains of the northern Sierra Nevada Range. The weather in this region has been warm and dry, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Winds have been steady from the south, blowing to the north, around 10-15 miles per hour. Relative humidity level has ranged from 10-25 percent. All of these numbers point to weather conditions that are conducive to fire growth.Unfortunately, the fire weather conditions appear prime for further wildfire growth because of the continued warmth, dryness, and wind across the steep and mountainous terrain. This fire will likely continue spreading and pouring smoke to the north-northeast across northern California, northwest Nevada, and into Oregon and Idaho.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/07-26_nat hrrr smoke 18z-1722041318031.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The wildfire season is cranking up across the West, with many new wildfires in the past few weeks. We're entering the hottest time of the year in this part of the country, which could continue drying vegetation and making it conducive for fire starts. Prevent future fires by obeying burn bans, avoiding anything that sparks, and properly disposing of anything lit on fire. We'll update you on this developing story.

Man Arrested After "Pushing Fiery Car Into Gully" to Start Park Fire

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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Smoke from large wildfires burning in the northwestern U.S. and western Canada has been getting caught in the jet stream and pushed into the U.S. Plains. Thick smoke from numerous wildfires in NW Canada is also contributing to the poor air quality region-wide.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/fire-1722085369153.jpg">As mentioned above, smoke is riding around our area of high pressure on the West Coast projecting smoke particles into the central U.S. An area of low pressure arriving from the Northwest will shift the flow in the coming days and should help with some of the worst of the air quality. If you are sensitive to air quality, spend time inside with windows closed. If you have to go outside and are coughing from the smoke, you can wear a particulate filtering mask, like an N-95 to help mitigate the impact.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-26 184410-1722041060218.png"><h2>Northwest</h2>Numerous large fires are burning in Oregon, producing large amounts of smoke. They include:<ul><li>The Durkee Fire (eastern Oregon): moderate fire behavior is expected. Some containment has occurred, but the fire has now burned over 288k acres. A burn ban is in effect for all of Malheur County.</li><li>The Cow Valley Fire: the fire is now almost completely contained.</li><li>Falls Fire (13m north of Burns, OR): continues to burn with extremely unfavorable weather conditions for firefighters.</li><li>Lone Rock Fire (north-central Oregon): increased smokiness from other fires has suppressed the extreme fire conditions.</li><li>Battle Mountain Complex: consists of three fires, the North Fork Owens, the Snake Fire, and the Monkey Creek Fire near Ukiah, Oregon, and is 140+ acres</li></ul><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-26 130752-1722020896143.png">Fire danger remains extremely high this week with thunderstorms in the area expected to produce lightning which could start new fires across the area. We will see strong winds fuel flames - on Wednesday there was a 100+ mph wind gust in Missoula, MT. Fire danger remains elevated as<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/triple-digit-temps-on-the-west-coast-for-the-fourth"> </a><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/triple-digit-temps-contine-out-west">extreme heat continues along the west coast. </a>Please avoid any outdoor burning or anything that will cause a spark. Hot and dry conditions mean water and moisture evaporate more quickly from trees, grasses, and shrubs, allowing them to burn faster.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/fire alerts-1722085777586.jpg"><h2>Southwest Fires</h2><ul><li>Park Fire: (near Chico, CA): Now California's biggest fire so far this season, blowing up to 164k acres will little containment. See the related article <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/man-arrested-after-pushing-fiery-car-into-gully-to-start-park-fire#google_vignette">here</a>.</li><li>2024 SQF Lightning Complex (Tulare County, CA): this consists of the lightning storms that ignited the Trout and Long Fire on the Sequoia National Forest.</li><li>Shelly Fire (northern California): little to no growth is anticipated as fuels continue to smolder. Drivers in the area should remain alert for fire personnel.</li><li>Silver King Fire (central Utah): slightly drier and warmer air will result in minimal fire behavior and limited fire spread.</li><li>Lake Fire (Santa Barbara County, CA): nearly fully contained after starting July 5th and forcing evacuations in the county. Grew to over 38k acres</li><li>Sandhurst Fire (near SLC, UT): Started July 20th, and grew so rapidly that it prompted officers to go door to door to remind residents about their evacuation zones.</li></ul>

Wildfire Smoke Impacting Air Quality Across the West, Central U.S.

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Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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A stagnant ridge of high pressure has led to weeks of endless heat across the southwestern U.S. The ridge of high pressure responsible for the extreme heat has been sitting over the West Coast since the beginning of July, shifting back and forth from the Four Corners to the Desert Southwest. If you are looking for relief, the long-range pattern doesn't support much as the large ridge of high pressure moves eastward! Much of the United States will see warmer temperatures as move into August!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/outlook-1722086527435.jpg"><h1>Southwest</h1>High temperatures have been above average in Las Vegas nearly every day this month, and just about half of those days, record-breaking. The city saw its all-time record high on July 7th, hitting 120 degrees. The previous all-time record high was 117 degrees, matching 3 more times that week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-06-22 031148-1722086635755.jpg">As the ridge of high pressure mentioned above warbles around, highs will remain above average but gradually cool through the weekend along the immediate West Coast. Monsoonal moisture in the 4 Corners will alleviate the extremely hot temperatures for Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-26 130005-1722020421166.png"><h1>Midwest and Northern Plains</h1>Thursday was pretty toasty across parts of Montana and the Dakotas with the record heat. Friday's cold front is helping to knock temperatures down some. However, longer-range forecasts show the heatwave increasing across the Central and Southern Plains starting next week! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-26 130153-1722020535615.png"> The persistent ridging will build back north driving temperatures in the Central and Southern Plains to record-setting levels. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/1-1721963337145.png">

Non-Stop Heat Into Next Week

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Kevin Schneider

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Conditions are quiet in the tropical Atlantic, in part thanks to plumes of Saharan Dust. Each year, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) moves off the west coast of Africa following east-to-west trade winds, most common in June, July, and early August.&nbsp;While responsible for creating smoke-like haze across the mid and high levels of the atmosphere, the SAL is also helpful in suppressing tropical development. Dry air mixes into the middle and higher levels of the atmosphere, preventing or substantially reducing the ability for tropical storms and/or hurricanes to develop. The Hurricane Hunters were out flying into the dust to collect valuable data to help answer the question of "Why?"<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1815861951047819415" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1815861951047819415"></div>Thicker plumes of dust can impact visibility and will continue to do so over the southern U.S. this week as multiple plumes of dust arrive from the tropical Atlantic into Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. Because dust is suspended so high in our atmosphere, impacts on air quality will be extremely limited. The biggest noticeable impact will be the haze, mostly at night! Sunrises and sunsets will have a slightly different look, with a slightly reddish hue.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Baron 2-1722050110126.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>It is typical to have a quiet month during July with the most likely areas of formation and tropical development in the Gulf and along the East Coast. However, towards the end of July and early August, there are indications of potential tropical development in the Caribbean. This is still quite a way away, but keep your eye out for the potential of storm development in the next few weeks. However, there is a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic that has a low chance of development in the next few days and you can read about it <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/tropical-storm-bud-forms-over-the-eastern-pacific">here.</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-26 104455-1722012310124.png">Ocean temperatures contribute to the threat of an above-average tropical season with ocean heat content much above normal in the Atlantic in 2024. There are some cooler surface temperatures in the western Gulf following Hurricane Beryl, which caused "upwelling" and brought cooler ocean water to the surface. The most above-average conditions are off the coast of New England, roughly 5° above average. It only takes one storm to impact you and the time to prepare is before the storm hits!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/sst-1721904761809.png">The NOAA forecast is aligned with that of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-hurricane-season-2024-expected-to-be-well-above-average">Colorado State University</a> which also calls for a well above average season.&nbsp;The official list of names only has 21 total and the higher end of NOAA's forecast calls for up to 25 storms. If forecasts pan out, there is an alternate list to supplement. The last time additional names were needed was during the record-setting 2020 season when La Niña conditions were also present.&nbsp;Below is the list of hurricane names we will go through first before we head into the alternative names list.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/forecasts-1720811702374.jpg">This year is expected to be above average thanks to warm sea surface temperatures and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-likely-to-return-for-hurricane-season">La Niña conditions returning just in time for the peak of Hurricane season</a>. La Niña is categorized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically resulting in less wind shear over the Atlantic and Caribbean oceans. Less wind shear means hurricanes can thrive, rather than be torn apart by strong upper-level winds. In the Eastern Pacific, a La Niña Pattern typically spells below-average activity,<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2024-central-pacific-hurricane-season"> which is what NOAA is predicting in 2024.</a>

Saharan Dust Reaching the Southern U.S.

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Tropical Storm Bud formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Wednesday afternoon and has since become a post-tropical cyclone. This was the second named tropical storm of the season in the Eastern Pacific. The storm is expected to remain over open waters and is NO threat to land. Storm strength will deteriorate over the next few days before Bud becomes a remnant low-pressure system. The Eastern Pacific Hurricane season has two distinct peaks, one in August and another in mid-September, coinciding with the Atlantic tropical season peak of activity. This year is expected to be at or below average in the eastern Pacific basin because of La Nina conditions, which spell more activity over the Atlantic but less activity over the Eastern Pacific because shear (turning of wind with height) tears apart hurricane structure. Still, it only takes one storm to impact you on the West Coast, so please stay aware.<h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/e pac-1721855375318.jpg">Atlantic</h2>The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic Basin that has a 20% chance of tropical formation in the next 7 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/Screenshot 2024-07-26 122112-1722018899369.png">One of the limiting factors of this wave is the fact that some Saharan Dust may bring impacts and help weaken the potential for tropical development.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/07/07-26_saharan ust-1722018954254.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Tropics: Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud, Wave in the Atlantic

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<div>Lucy is originally from the Boston area but has spent the last four years forecasting and living in Colorado! She stayed in the northeast for her education, graduating Summa Cum Laude from SUNY Oswego with a B.S. in Meteorology. Just a few days after graduation, she made the cross country move to Colorado Springs, CO to begin her career at KKTV, the CBS affiliate. Lucy has covered historic blizzards, tornadoes, windstorms, the largest wildfires in Colorado state history and dust storms ... they truly "get it all" in Colorado! Lucy is excited to forecast on a national level and continue her passion of explaining the science behind the weather!</div>
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Lucy Bergemann

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Hurricane season is less than one week away and forecasts are calling for a much above-average season in the tropical Atlantic. Forecasters at NOAA expect 17-25 named storms and forecasters at Colorado State University expect 23 named storms. The official list of hurricane names only has a total of 21 names (A-W) so if we were to see the forecasts pan out, an alternate list of names would be used, starting back at the letter "A". So what is behind this above-average forecast?It is the ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, a global sea surface and atmosphere pattern interaction that impacts forecast patterns in the United States. The forecast impacts are most commonly felt during the Winter months in the northern hemisphere, but the ENSO cycle also has impacts on the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jdUT9r72XhA" start="0"></iframe></div>According to experts at the Climate Prediction Center, "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in [June]. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance)". La Niña will likely continue through the end of hurricane season on November 30th. Our most recent La Niña Hurricane seasons were 2020, 2021 and 2022. All three were above average for hurricane activity.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1788554515245142271" src="https://x.com/NWSCPC/status/1788554515245142271"></div>We typically see elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic tropics during La Niña events because the temperature profiles and interactions between the ocean surface and atmosphere lead to less shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shear rips apart hurricanes, so the less of it, the better the environment is for storms to develop and be sustained.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2024/05/climo-1716490140719.jpg">Remember these are forecasts and projections but no storms have officially been named yet. It is important to stay up to date on the latest tropical conditions throughout the season with WeatherNation.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024 Impacted by La Niña

Great Plains Multi-Day Severe Threat

Thanks to a stubborn, slow-moving low-pressur

Relentless Rainfall Ongoing in the South

The Southern United States has exhausted its

Man Arrested After "Pushing Fiery Car Into Gully" to Start Park Fire

Wild developments have surfaced from the stat

Wildfire Smoke Impacting Air Quality Across the West, Central U.S.

Smoke from large wildfires burning in the nor

Non-Stop Heat Into Next Week

A stagnant ridge of high pressure has led to

Saharan Dust Reaching the Southern U.S.

Conditions are quiet in the tropical Atlantic

Tropics: Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud, Wave in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Bud formed in the Eastern Paci