Hurricane Prep Week 2023: The Tools We Use

news image
Special Stories
20 May 2023 5:00 PM

Cone and Spaghetti ... no not the food, the hurricane tools we use to communicate where a storm may go! Otherwise known as the "forecast cone of uncertainty" and "spaghetti models". Both are important tools to help determine where a storm may go and communicate uncertainty in the forecast.

Spaghetti Plots

Spaghetti models are used when the storm is an "Invest" or area of focus and could develop tropical characteristics. Each individual line in a Spaghetti model plot represents a model and where that model projects the CENTER of the storm will go. Usually we see outliers or lines that are way outside of where the cluster of models may be. Spaghetti models are useful early on in the forecasting procedure!

Cone of Uncertainty

The Forecast Cone is an official product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and communicates where THE CENTER of the storm could go over the next 120 hours (6 days). The cone gets wider further out in time, signifying uncertainty in the track. It is so important to remember that the cone accounts for the center of the storm, and impacts can, and will be felt outside of the cone. It is also common for the cone to shift and adjust which is why you need to know your risk and prepare ahead of time.

All Weather News
More
Flash Flooding Expected in DFW Today

Flash Flooding Expected in DFW Today

The DFW area is under the risk of flash flood

4 Oct 2023 6:35 PM
Severe Weather Chances in Southern Plains

Severe Weather Chances in Southern Plains

In addition to the flash flood threat around

4 Oct 2023 6:30 PM
Typhoon Koinu to Impact Taiwan

Typhoon Koinu to Impact Taiwan

In the Western Pacific hundreds of thousands

4 Oct 2023 6:25 PM
Fat Bear Week 2023: Chunking Up for Competition

Fat Bear Week 2023: Chunking Up for Competition

It is almost time for Katmai National Park &a

4 Oct 2023 6:20 PM
Tropical Storm Philippe to Impact Maine

Tropical Storm Philippe to Impact Maine

We are keeping an extremely close eye on Trop

4 Oct 2023 6:10 PM
Get Ready for the Next Solar Eclipse!

Get Ready for the Next Solar Eclipse!

Set a reminder in your phone and calendar! Th

4 Oct 2023 1:00 PM
Powerful Cold Front Drops Temps in the Northern U.S.

Powerful Cold Front Drops Temps in the Northern U.S.

Areas west of I-29 will get in on the cooler,

4 Oct 2023 12:55 PM