Hurricane Prep Week 2023: The Tools We Use

Cone and Spaghetti ... no not the food, the hurricane tools we use to communicate where a storm may go! Otherwise known as the "forecast cone of uncertainty" and "spaghetti models". Both are important tools to help determine where a storm may go and communicate uncertainty in the forecast.

Spaghetti Plots

Spaghetti models are used when the storm is an "Invest" or area of focus and could develop tropical characteristics. Each individual line in a Spaghetti model plot represents a model and where that model projects the CENTER of the storm will go. Usually we see outliers or lines that are way outside of where the cluster of models may be. Spaghetti models are useful early on in the forecasting procedure!

Cone of Uncertainty

The Forecast Cone is an official product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and communicates where THE CENTER of the storm could go over the next 120 hours (6 days). The cone gets wider further out in time, signifying uncertainty in the track. It is so important to remember that the cone accounts for the center of the storm, and impacts can, and will be felt outside of the cone. It is also common for the cone to shift and adjust which is why you need to know your risk and prepare ahead of time.