Tracey Anthony

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The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average season so far, with periods of high activity at times. 16 storms have been named thus far, with the total seasonal energy (ACE) running just barely below average (93%). The next week or two will likely be another period of higher activity, which could push the season to above-average numbers.<h2>Hurricane Octave</h2>Octave formed last Tuesday in the Eastern Pacific. The latest update has shown Octave to have weakened from a Category 1 hurricane to a Tropical Storm early Monday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web1-1759769812795.png">Octave will likely remain a hurricane through tonight before weakening back to tropical storm status.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web2-1759769909752.png"><h2>Hurricane Priscilla</h2>Right behind Octave, we have Hurricane Priscilla. With winds sustained at 85 mph and moving north-northwest at 5 mph. Priscilla could bring tropical storm conditions to the SW coast of Mexico. Popular tourist spot Puerto Vallarta under these tropical storm watches and this storm will continue to run parallel with with Baja California expecting some impacts later this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web3-1759769943229.png">The forecast cone of uncertainty has Priscilla moving parallel to the Baja over the next week. Beyond this week the tropical moisture that is associated with Priscilla will likely be impacting the forecast for the desert southwest by this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web4-1759769978427.png"><h2>Tropical Wave</h2>There is a medium chance of tropical formation with a wave behind Priscilla, south of southern Mexico, and it is likely to become a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 061756-1759666683217.png">If this wave gets a name, the next on the list after Priscilla is Raymond.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 163649-1759617419832.png">Reminder that we're getting over the final secondary peak of the Pacific hurricane season. It's important to continue to stay updated all the way throughout!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 154651-1759182418223.png">Stay tuned on WeatherNation for the latest!

Adrian Hernandez

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

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While the NHC has been highlighting a few areas near Florida and the Gulf this past week, these areas are no longer expected to have a chance to develop into our next tropical system. A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa will have a better chance to develop this week as it moves across the MDR (main development region) in the Atlantic. It's a bit late in the season for tropical waves to develop from Africa, but models indicate that this system could become organized early next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 132620-1759692393577.png">As the wave from Africa merges with another trough in the MDR (main development region), it is more likely to organize. This could bring tropical cyclone impacts to the Caribbean toward the end of next week if these trends hold.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-06 13-01-49-1759770149543.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 053846-1759664340127.png">

Watching the Next Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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The National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND has ruled a tornado near Enderlin, ND caused EF-5 level damage upon further investigation. This ends a 12 year period without a surveyed EF-5 tornado in the U.S. The last time EF-5 damage was reported from a tornado was in May of 2013 in Moore, OK.The tornado is estimated to have wind speeds greater than 210 miles per hour. This tornado was on the ground for 12.1 miles with a width of just over a mile! Sadly, this storm cause three fatalities.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 104454-1759769110628.png">Here is more on what led the NWS to upgrade their survey findings:<blockquote>"The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.7 ft (145 m)."</blockquote><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-06 102949-1759768203710.png"><h1>SET-UP</h1>On June 20,2025, a derecho brought wind gusts of 70 -105 mph to the north central U.S. spanning over 400 miles and leaving hundreds of thousands of households without power. Multiple long track, destructive tornadoes were within this storm system.A derecho is a long-lived severe wind event, with specific criteria about the length and width of the damaging wind swath. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm">SPC has a detailed page</a> dedicated to these destructive wind storms. Several typically occur each year, through they can vary in intensity and area. A notable <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho">derecho ripped through Des Moines in 2020</a>, producing hurricane force winds and widespread damage.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-21%2005-35-48-1750505871964.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2 style="text-align: start">OTHER REPORTS</h2>Wind gusts in North Dakota and Minnesota (as well as northern South Dakota) were impressive, many over hurricane strength. A wake-low also developed behind the leading edge, producing severe strength winds (58+ mph) in some locations for over an hour!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053620-1750505847379.png">Bemidji, Minnesota was hit particularly hard in the overnight hours as a intense bout of winds moved through the area, with a tornado potentially embedded in the circulation. The Bemidji Regional Airport reported a gust to 106 mph, with widespread damage reported in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/Screenshot%202025-06-21%20053627-1750505847378.png">The widely spanning severe winds have left hundreds of thousands of households in the dark the following morning, with some counties reporting well over 60-60% of customers without power. As a reminder, if you're going to run a generator to power anything keep it at least 25 feet away from any opening in your home, like windows and doors.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/06/1-1750541351436.png">This was one of many severe weather events that pushed<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record"> North Dakota to breaking their yearly tornado record</a>.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2dgiWTWdp-0" start="0"></iframe></div><h1></h1>

Administrator

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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<h1>TEMPERATURES</h1>A cold front sweeping through the Plains has brought a noticeable temperature drop behind it. Widespread Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in place for Monday AM. Daytime highs are dropping 20+ degrees from where they were Sunday for cities where the cold front has crossed. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 12-1759746447670.png">The front will cause Green Bay to only feel temperatures cooling throughout the day, as Chicago has one more hot day before a 20° temperature drop by Tuesday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 10-1759746529538.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web 9-1759746545421.png"><h1>RAIN / STORMS </h1> Heading into the work week, an upper-level trough is also contributing to this storm setup, supporting a surface cold front expected to move east and southeast over the next few days. With dew points in the 60s, there’s plenty of moisture to fuel thunderstorms, but limited instability should keep most storms below severe thresholds. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-05 forecast moisture-1759692873498.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>By Monday, the frontal system will continue tapping into Gulf moisture as it shifts toward the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The available moisture will spark a flash flooding threat, as several cities get hit for 2 days in a rain as this system slows down. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-05 rne to rnc-1759710939379.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Weather Prediction Center has issued excessive rainfall outlooks through Tuesday across these regions. They have now been upgraded to slight (level 2 out of 4), but rain rates may get as heavy as 1-2" per hour.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/10-05 wpc-1759710701909.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With high rain rates, rainfall totals between 2-4" are likely, with localized spots on our in-house model that may reach 6", especially in Kentucky and along the Ohio River.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 183213-1759710739887.png">We’ll keep tracking this system as it shifts east through midweek. The good news is cooler, drier air settles in behind it, bringing a welcome taste of fall once the storms clear out.

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts, fall foliage has been developing quickly across the United States, with more color this week dropping into the middle latitudes! The latest forecast from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.explorefall.com/fall-foliage-map">Explore Fall</a> (top of page) shows peak color emerging across the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies, and the Beartooth and Wind River Ranges in Wyoming over the next seven days (September 30 - October 6). <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-29 203511-1759199719401.png">Color has quickly developed and already peaked for regions in the dark orange and red shades above (orange to red areas), much of it across the Rockies and Cascades. The Upper-Midwest and northern New England/New York are also experiencing some peak color!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1970624217776607589" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1970624217776607589"></div>The most 30 days before the appearance of fall color are the most important for vibrancy during the peak season, but drought conditions can also lead to more muted color or variable conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105237-1757350392233.png">For great fall color, sunny days with cool, crisp nights are preferable. Rain is welcome at times, however, to keep the trees from drying out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-08 105303-1757350398827.png">Ever wonder which trees produce certain colors? Check out the handy identification guide for foliage below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-21 041320-1758449873768.png">

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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ROCKIES - A strong, upper-level low-pressure system is moving through the western United States, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, snow, and wind. Much cooler temperatures are moving in as well, particularly behind a trailing frontal system, which will help produce heavy mountain snow.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/jfkkd-1759692403079.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Cold air behind the front has started changing rain to snow from Montana into Wyoming with more heavy snow for mountain areas into Sunday night.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-04 201649-1759630755021.png">Winter weather alerts have been issued for some heavy snow that will be expected in the mountains, mostly above 5,500 feet.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-05 063418-1759667665368.png">More details on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Jackie Brown

Fall turns to Winter Across the High Peaks of the West

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Kevin Schneider

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Tropical activity in the Atlantic has increased significantly over the last week. We're now tracking two named storms, Imelda and Humberto. On Saturday, Humberto reached Category 5 status, with sustained winds topping out at 160 mph! Since then, it has backed off to 80 mph winds, making it a category 1 storm.<h1>LOOKING BACK</h1>Humberto was named a week ago, last Wednesday afternoon, and gained hurricane status early Friday morning. This is the first time in nearly 100 years that we have had 2 Category 5 hurricanes in back-to-back seasons!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-30 203358-1759286043566.png">We are now past the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, but still have a ways to go for the season. For being such a quiet season, the normal amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a metric to quantify activity, is not far off. Two category 5 hurricanes will boost those numbers, though.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-01 091802-1759331890905.png">September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Humberto Merges with a Front in the Atlantic

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FORECAST

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Moisture moving into the Midwest will mix with cold air pooling in from the north! This will lead to snow showers over the next couple of days!

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SNOW ACCUMULATION

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Many areas will receive up to 5 inches of snow just in a span of of 3 days! Other areas, like Kansas City, could possibly reaching up to 6 inches of snow!

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A LOOK AHEAD

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Cold temperatures are on the way! Make sure to bundle up all week long!

Midwest Snow!

Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Priscilla and Tropical Storm Octave

The Eastern Pacific has had a fairly average

Watching the Next Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

While the NHC has been highlighting a few are

Upgraded North Dakota Tornado Ends EF-5 Drought

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks,

Fall Front Triggers Frost and Storm Threat

TEMPERATURESA cold front sweeping through the

Fall Color Is Peaking in Parts of the Lower 48

Grab the pumpkin spice and apple cider donuts

Fall turns to Winter Across the High Peaks of the West

ROCKIES - A strong, upper-level low-pressure

Humberto Merges with a Front in the Atlantic

Tropical activity in the Atlantic has increas