Tropical Update: Early Area of Interest in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical outlook for a small, but persistent area of low pressure over the Atlantic Ocean that is about 900 miles away from the Cabo Verde Islands over open waters. It is NOT expected to strengthen into anything tropical and will dissipate over the next few days. Still, with the hurricane season just 37 days away, starting on June 1st, it is a good reminder that tropical activity is knocking on our doorstep. Official outlooks from the NHC start on May 15.

There have been very few Atlantic tropical cyclones in April - only 3 in the last 50 years. Storms are more common in the offseason months of December and May which bookend the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Most tropical systems that form in the off months are tropical storms in May or hurricanes in December. Our most recent off-season tropical cyclone was an unnamed storm in January of 2023 off the coast of New England.

As we head into May, tropical development is uncommon, but not impossible. Below are the historical locations of tropical systems in the month of May, most forming in the warm Caribbean and Gulf waters.

The peak of hurricane season is in September, when waters are climatologically warm. As a reminder, the first seasonal forecast from Colorado State University calls for ABOVE AVERAGE hurricane season with the potential for 23 named storms thanks to El Nino and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.

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