Brittany Lockley

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<p>A dynamic summer weather pattern is setting the stage for several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern and central Great Plains over the next couple of days. This activity is being driven by upper-level disturbances moving out of the northern Rockies, which will interact with a lifting warm front and a trough to spark widespread storm development. Each of the next 3 days will have severe storms somewhere around this area.</p><h1><strong>OVERNIGHT</strong></h1><p>For the rest of tonight, the greatest risk of severe storms can be found across the Interstate 80 region from Iowa out to Northern Illinois. The biggest threats will be damaging winds and heavy rain. Heavy rain and flooding could be an issue if storms return back to Northern Illinois. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752203839230.png"></p><p></p><h1>Timing</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752203922039.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>FRIDAY</h1><p> By Friday, a reinforcing cold front will push the primary threats for severe weather and heavy rain further east, affecting the Midwest, upper Midwest, and portions of the central Plains. <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">&nbsp;</span> The overall picture won't change much: very unstable with the potential that a few storms survive from the night previous. South of those storms, we'll expect redevelopment of thunderstorms that will pose a threat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752173262987.png"></p><p></p><h1>SATURDAY</h1><p>As the front continues to move, strong thunderstorms may redevelop early Saturday over the central High Plains. Behind the front, a high-pressure system ushering in cooler, drier air from western Canada will settle over the northern High Plains, bringing a temporary break from the stormy conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752204060719.png"></p><p>With multiple rounds of storms, flooding will be of some concern, with a few inches of rain likely. The tough thing about uncertainty in severe forecasting is that it brings uncertain rainfall amounts. This is a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752173336852.png"></p><p>As we continue to iron out the details, check back with us if you have any interests around the Plains states.</p>

Rob Bradley

Jesse Kelley

Rounds of Severe Storms to Impact Great Plains and Midwest Through the Weekend

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

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<p>Moisture is moving back into the Central and Southern tier of the Rockies and Plains states, bringing flood chances back to the forecast, including Texas this weekend.</p><p><br>A low-pressure system will ride around a ridge of high pressure, increasing wind shear in the region, which will help to organize a few severe thunderstorms with severe weather outlooks in place through Saturday.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 070345-1752152638583.png">Flood Potential</h1><p>Heavy rain will return with thunderstorms, particularly between I-20 and I-40 where flood potential will be elevated.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174083296.png"></p><p>Some heavy downpours could make a return to areas between San Angelo and I-35 by the weekend, where intense flooding killed over 100 people July 4th weekend. Thankfully, the flood potential, while present, doesn't look to be on the higher end or widespread. Still, with so much flooding last week these areas will be susceptible to flooding from any heavy rain.</p><h1>Forecast / Timing</h1><p>Storms will become more intense in the afternoons, though some storms may persist in the evenings and overnight across the Plains. New rounds of storms are expected to initiate each day / afternoon before pushing east through the late day hours.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752202846876.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Weather Outlooks</h1><p>Severe weather chances will return, slowly shifting south into the weekend. Wind and hail will be the primary threats, though isolated tornadoes are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2-1752174310480.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752202927797.png"></p>

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

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<p style="text-align: justify">While the Atlantic appears quiet, conditions can change quickly as waters continue to warm as we inch closer to the peak of hurricane season in mid-September.<br><br>The National Hurricane Center doesn't have any areas to watch around North America <em>this week</em>, but toward the 2nd/3rd week of July, there will be potential for some tropical development in the Gulf. The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) is highlighting the northern Gulf for this development from July 16th-22nd, though confidence is low.</p><h1>Forecast Factors</h1><p>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072740-1752155310312.png">At the surface, winds could converge around several boundaries that have the potential to form. This is a process similar to conditions that created Tropical Storm Chantal, which moved onshore in the Carolinas on the July 4th weekend, spurring significant flooding in North Carolina.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072747-1752155317870.png">Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081036-1752156680423.png">Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. This is more often where we see early-season development.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072757-1752155325910.png">Updated CSU Outlook</h1><p>Colorado State University updated its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, July 9th.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081155-1752156752337.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081242-1752156788535.png"></p>

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

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<p>The severe weather and flood threat continues for the Northeast. A slow moving front is bringing in the moisture to the east coast along with a persistent trough situated across the interior Mid-Atlantic. While the overall threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall is lower compared to earlier this week, some of the stronger and slower-moving storms could still produce localized downpours, leading to flooding in vulnerable areas.</p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">Over the next few days, some locations can pick up between 1-3" of rain with some isolated heavier totals throughout the Northeast region.</span><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752203460642.png"></p><h1>Severe Outlooks</h1><p>By Friday, conditions across New England are expected to become more settled, reducing the likelihood of additional thunderstorms.<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">&nbsp;However, on </span>Friday SPC keeps a <strong>MARGINAL</strong> risk from the Southeast back into New England.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752174842648.png"></p><p></p><h2>Timing</h2><p>Storms will happen along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Over the next few days, strong to severe storms can develop, and during peak heating is when the risk for damaging winds and large hail will be the greatest.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752203553128.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p>Tune into WeatherNation :10 the hour for the Eastern Regional Forecast for more details.</p>

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East Coast

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p><strong>TEXAS</strong> - Catastrophic flooding devastated portions of the Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, resulting in the tragic loss of more than 120 lives, according to FEMA.</p><h4>The following is a timeline of key events leading up to and during this deadly flash flood, compiled from the Department of Homeland Security and other official sources:</h4><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941987740406460582" src="https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1941987740406460582"></div><h2>Wednesday July 2</h2><p>The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-2-25"><strong>emergency response resources</strong></a> in Central Texas in anticipation of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.</p><h2>Thursday July 3</h2><p>TDEM increased its readiness level and mobilized additional <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-3-25"><strong>emergency state response</strong></a> resources for Central and West Texas as the flood threat intensified heading into the holiday weekend.</p><p>Morning:</p><ul><li><p>The National Weather Service (NWS) in Austin/San Antonio conducted a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&amp;issuedby=EWX&amp;product=AFD&amp;format=CI&amp;version=32&amp;glossary=1"><strong>forecast briefing</strong></a> with emergency management officials, emphasizing the risk of flash flooding.</p></li><li><p>The National Water Center issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive-multi?d=2025-07-03T06:55:06&amp;e=2025-07-03T06:55:06"><strong>Flood Hazard Outlook</strong></a> identifying flash flood potential for Kerrville and surrounding areas.</p></li></ul><p>1:13 PM: NWS Austin/San Antonio issued a <strong>Flood Watch</strong> for Kerr County, effective through Friday morning.</p><p>6:10 PM: Weather Prediction Center (WPC) released the first of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/metwatch/mpd_archive_days.php?mpddate=07/03/2025&amp;seldate=20250703">three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions</a> (MPD #0580, #0581, #0582), warning of excessive rainfall and flash flood potential.</p><p><img src="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0582.gif"></p><p>6:22 PM: National Water Center issued an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive-multi?d=2025-07-05T06:50:36">alert </a>for "considerable flooding risk" north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville.</p><p><img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-05T06:50:36.png"></p><p>11:41 PM: The first <strong>Flash Flood Warning</strong> was issued for Bandera County.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1940994392094875676" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1940994392094875676"></div><h2>Friday July 4</h2><p>1:14 AM:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941017778992926804"> <strong>Flash Flood Warnings</strong> </a>with "considerable damage" tags were issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties, triggering Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) and NOAA Weather Radio notifications.</p><p>4:03 AM: <strong>Flash Flood Warning</strong> is upgraded to a <strong>Flash Flood Emergency </strong>for south-central Kerr County, including Hunt.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941060338822033425" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941060338822033425"></div><p>4:35 AM: Kerr County Sheriff's Office reports flooding at the low water crossing, over three hours after the initial 1:14 AM warning.</p><p>4:35 AM: A US Geological Survey (USGS) gauge on the Guadalupe River recorded a river level of 29.5 feet.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 155734-1752108463877.png">5:10 AM: National Water Center <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive?d=2025-07-04">warned</a> of "widespread, considerable, and catastrophic flooding."</p><p><img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-04T06:15:36.png">5:34 AM: <strong>Flash Flood Emergency</strong> is issued for the Guadalupe River, signaling a "large and deadly flood wave."</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941083202749161589" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941083202749161589"></div><p>5:45 AM - A USGS gauge recorded the Guadalupe River at 34.29 feet - an extreme and life-threatening level.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 163021-1752108484878.png">The rest of the day brought devastation to communities throughout the region.</p><p>9:00 PM - Governor Greg Abbott issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-statement-on-hill-country-flooding-"><strong>formal statement </strong></a>and signed a disaster declaration for the impacted areas.</p><div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" data-width="500" src="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" style="display: flex; justify-content: center"></div><p></p><p>For more on the unfolding aftermath and how to support those affected, visit: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/ways-to-help-texas-flood-victims#google_vignette"><strong>Ways to Help Texas Flood Victims</strong>.</a></p>

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East Coast

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Rounds of Severe Storms to Impact Great Plains and Midwest Through the Weekend

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East Coast

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Rounds of Severe Storms to Impact Great Plains and Midwest Through the Weekend

Storms Return From the Front Range to Texas

Medium Range Tropics Forecast Favors Gulf, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Severe Thunderstorms Expected Across the East Coast

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country