Kevin Schneider

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September 10th marked the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, so where is the activity? This was only the 9th time since 1950 when there were no active storms. That is 75 years! Several factors contribute to this season being extremely quiet. For one, it has been scorched, and there is wind shear, and less storm development off the coast of Africa.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>As for now, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet for the short term. However, NHC is still watching a tropical wave off of the coast of Africa. If this does not end up getting named, this would be only the 2nd time (1992) since record keeping in 1950 with no Atlantic named storm activity between Aug 29 and Sept. 16. Meanwhile, in the next few days, a massive plume of Saharan dust is expected to move into the Atlantic, reducing chances for thunderstorms to organize.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051130-1757761896893.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/New Baron Video 3-1757731261606.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Climate Prediction Center shows several regions in the next few weeks with low to medium confidence of development in the middle of the month, favoring some waves exiting off the coast of Africa. Given how this season has played out so far with those waves, we'll wait and see!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1757683999818.png">Do not let your guard down. September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051253-1757761983394.jpg">What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently.Here's what can happen in simply a matter of half an hour in Florida with a pattern like this:<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/VO_091025_RSE_MIAMI,FL_30 MINUTES OR SO APART CLEAR SKIES &amp; THEN BANG BIG STORMS_TW_@JAMESVANFLEET_DO_E091125-1757604983294.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, it's the front that's keeping the storms around. We could show a similar setup for most of the past week or two, with a slow-moving boundary in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757647106944.png">That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 063051-1757766660502.jpg">

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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Surprisingly, this isn't about football. Or at least not how you would think.<h1>OMEGA BLOCK</h1>In meteorology, the dog wags the tail, not the other way around. Meaning the upper levels have more influence on the day-to-day weather. When we look at the upper atmosphere, an important shape forms: the Greek letter omega! An Omega Block is a type of stagnant flow that isn't in a hurry to change.READ MORE: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/what-is-an-omega-block">What is an Omega Block?</a><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-11 095812-1757606300377.png"><h1>WHAT DOES THIS MEAN</h1>The two dips in the overall flow will harbor low pressure: one on each side of the lower 48. That will keep the stormy skies nearby and for the East Coast, the cooler weather as well! But what about anyone under the high? Here comes some late Summer heat! This flies in the face of what September has been so far. Just about the ENTIRE month has been at or below!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051647-1757762219022.jpg">Temperatures will climb over the weekend, eventually entering record territory in places like St. Louis.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051715-1757762244347.jpg"><h1>I'M HERE FOR FOOTBALL</h1>Well, here's your tie-in: football practices could become a little more dangerous over the coming week. This might become a theme throughout September, despite the comfortable start we got off to. The Climate Prediction Center is leaning toward above-average temperatures well into September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-11 100752-1757606949368.png">

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

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The hits just keep on coming in the Eastern Pacific basin. While Kiko gave us something to monitor and made a close call with the Hawaiian Islands, our next system has a better chance of impacting a landmass. Early Saturday morning, Mario disipated in the Eastern Pacific, only sticking around for about a day or so. That moisture appears to stay out over water, leaving us with little impacts other than some rain on the western coast of Mexico. <h1>DON'T WORRY THERE'S MORE</h1>The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three more areas for potential development, but the only interesting aspect might be what they get named. Both of these lows will likely stay well out to sea, if they form at all. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 061106-1757765481510.jpg">These areas of low pressure that develop likely won't occur until well into the upcoming week, with some models aiming at Wednesday-Thursday. Narda is the next name up on the Eastern Pacific list. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 061310-1757765611280.jpg">HOWEVER, if the low set to move south of Hawaii forms west of 140°W, it will knock another name off of the Central Pacific basin's list. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 061321-1757765671185.jpg"><h1></h1>

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles

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Dave Holder

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A strong upper-level trough along with monsoonal moisture advecting northward continues to hone in on southwestern Colorado and northwestern New Mexico. Both a flood threat and isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of Utah, New Mexico, and Colorado through Saturday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-12 171918-1757719165612.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730818205.png">The latest model data suggest that the heaviest rain will be focused over parts of the San Juan Mountains, with some heavy rain also expected across parts of Eastern New Mexico and West Texas.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/nmtxsevere-1757719298114.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>With upper-level support, some thunderstorms may become organized with a severe threat. Straight-line damaging winds would be the main hazard through the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-12 172235-1757719361345.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-12 172321-1757719415516.png">Hints of winter are also in the forecast! Models are indicating that snowfall will occur on the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains and the Front Range.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/1-1757730864491.png">

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners

Monitoring Another Tropical Wave in the Atlantic

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

Blocking Pattern Warms Up the Midsection

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles

Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Forecasted Across the Four Corners