Meteorologist Jesse Kelley is excited to join the talented staff at Weather Nation. Jesse spent most of his childhood in Birmingham, Alabama. The state of Alabama is prone to seeing various types of weather from severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter weather. For college, Jesse attended the University of South Alabama where he received his degree in Broadcast Meteorology along with minors in Math and Geography. From Alabama, Jesse started his broadcast television working three years at KAVU-TV in Victoria. Recently, he finished a stint in Shreveport, LA. Jesse and his wife are looking forward to making the Rocky Mountains and Colorado home. If you would like to follow me, you can follow me on Twitter @JesseKelleywx and on Facebook at Meteorologist Jesse Kelley.

Jesse Kelley

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<p>It has been over a week since the devastating floods swept through the Texas Hill Country, and our hearts remain with the communities still recovering. The thought of more heavy rain is the last thing anyone wants to hear right now, but unfortunately, rain is expected to return this weekend. Flood Watches have been issued for Oklahoma, West Texas, and the High Plains of New Mexico for the potential of continued heavy rain. These watches will be in effect through Sunday. Saturday night, models are hinting at the potential of more heavy rain over some of the devasted areas of last week's flooding. Again this is just a forecast and it could change. As a result, Weather Prediction Center upgraded the flood risk to a <strong>MODERATE</strong> risk.</p><p>If you live in the Hill Country and in Texas, make sure you have a few ways to receive alerts in case flash flooding occurs and warnings are issued. It will not take much heavy rain to cause flooding as the grounds are very saturated from last week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752375419270.png"></p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752375573189.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>As we look at our in house model, the latest run does push some heavy rainfall over the Interstate 35 corridor. Along with the flood threat, there will be a severe weather threat during the overnight hours and on Sunday. The biggest threats will likely be damaging winds.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752375727237.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752375752229.png"></p>

Heavy Rain Returns to Texas This Weekend

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<p><strong>TEXAS</strong> - Catastrophic flooding devastated portions of the Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, resulting in the tragic loss of more than 120 lives, according to FEMA.</p><h4>The following is a timeline of key events leading up to and during this deadly flash flood, compiled from the Department of Homeland Security and other official sources:</h4><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941987740406460582" src="https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1941987740406460582"></div><h2>Wednesday July 2</h2><p>The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activated <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-2-25"><strong>emergency response resources</strong></a> in Central Texas in anticipation of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.</p><h2>Thursday July 3</h2><p>TDEM increased its readiness level and mobilized additional <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tdem.texas.gov/press-release/7-3-25"><strong>emergency state response</strong></a> resources for Central and West Texas as the flood threat intensified heading into the holiday weekend.</p><p>Morning:</p><ul><li><p>The National Weather Service (NWS) in Austin/San Antonio conducted a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&amp;issuedby=EWX&amp;product=AFD&amp;format=CI&amp;version=32&amp;glossary=1"><strong>forecast briefing</strong></a> with emergency management officials, emphasizing the risk of flash flooding.</p></li><li><p>The National Water Center issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-national-fho-archive-multi?d=2025-07-03T06:55:06&amp;e=2025-07-03T06:55:06"><strong>Flood Hazard Outlook</strong></a> identifying flash flood potential for Kerrville and surrounding areas.</p></li></ul><p>1:13 PM: NWS Austin/San Antonio issued a <strong>Flood Watch</strong> for Kerr County, effective through Friday morning.</p><p>6:10 PM: Weather Prediction Center (WPC) released the first of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/metwatch/mpd_archive_days.php?mpddate=07/03/2025&amp;seldate=20250703">three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions</a> (MPD #0580, #0581, #0582), warning of excessive rainfall and flash flood potential.</p><p><img src="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0582.gif"></p><p>6:22 PM: National Water Center issued an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive-multi?d=2025-07-05T06:50:36">alert </a>for "considerable flooding risk" north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville.</p><p><img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-05T06:50:36.png"></p><p>11:41 PM: The first <strong>Flash Flood Warning</strong> was issued for Bandera County.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1940994392094875676" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1940994392094875676"></div><h2>Friday July 4</h2><p>1:14 AM:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941017778992926804"> <strong>Flash Flood Warnings</strong> </a>with "considerable damage" tags were issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties, triggering Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) and NOAA Weather Radio notifications.</p><p>4:03 AM: <strong>Flash Flood Warning</strong> is upgraded to a <strong>Flash Flood Emergency </strong>for south-central Kerr County, including Hunt.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941060338822033425" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941060338822033425"></div><p>4:35 AM: Kerr County Sheriff's Office reports flooding at the low water crossing, over three hours after the initial 1:14 AM warning.</p><p>4:35 AM: A US Geological Survey (USGS) gauge on the Guadalupe River recorded a river level of 29.5 feet.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 155734-1752108463877.png">5:10 AM: National Water Center <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd-archive?d=2025-07-04">warned</a> of "widespread, considerable, and catastrophic flooding."</p><p><img src="https://www.weather.gov/images/owp/AHD/Archive/AHD_2025-07-04T06:15:36.png">5:34 AM: <strong>Flash Flood Emergency</strong> is issued for the Guadalupe River, signaling a "large and deadly flood wave."</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1941083202749161589" src="https://x.com/NWSFlashFlood/status/1941083202749161589"></div><p>5:45 AM - A USGS gauge recorded the Guadalupe River at 34.29 feet - an extreme and life-threatening level.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-09 163021-1752108484878.png">The rest of the day brought devastation to communities throughout the region.</p><p>9:00 PM - Governor Greg Abbott issued a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-statement-on-hill-country-flooding-"><strong>formal statement </strong></a>and signed a disaster declaration for the impacted areas.</p><div class="fb-post" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" data-width="500" src="https://www.facebook.com/TexasGovernor/posts/1268547011592046?ref=embed_post" style="display: flex; justify-content: center"></div><p></p><p>For more on the unfolding aftermath and how to support those affected, visit: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/ways-to-help-texas-flood-victims#google_vignette"><strong>Ways to Help Texas Flood Victims</strong>.</a></p>

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p style="text-align: justify">BREAKING: The National Hurricane Center is now watching for potential tropical development over the Gulf or Atlantic waters. The chances are low for development, but this is something that will need to be monitored over the next several days.</p><p style="text-align: justify"></p><p style="text-align: justify"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Day1SVR-1752346090393.png"></p><h1>Forecast Factors</h1><p>Why is the northern Gulf being highlighted for development in the middle of July? Models favor upper-level troughing to develop over the region toward the middle of the week, which is likely to spur lift and heavy rain.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072740-1752155310312.png"></p><p>At the surface, winds could converge around several boundaries that have the potential to form. This is a process similar to conditions that created Tropical Storm Chantal, which moved onshore in the Carolinas on the July 4th weekend, spurring significant flooding in North Carolina.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 054231-1752320579168.png"></p><p>Warm water is a necessary ingredient for tropical formation, and temperatures in the Gulf are plenty warm to fuel tropical systems. Typically, sea-surface temperatures in the upper 70s are needed for tropical cyclone development.</p><p></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081036-1752156680423.png">Water temperatures tend to warm more quickly early in the season in the Gulf and western Atlantic. This is more often where we see early-season development.</p><h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 072757-1752155325910.png">Updated CSU Outlook</h1><p>Colorado State University updated its seasonal forecast on Wednesday, July 9th.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081155-1752156752337.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-10 081242-1752156788535.png"></p>

Dave Holder

Watching the Gulf and Atlantic for Tropical Development, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

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<p>Keep the rain boots handy in Florida - heavy rain is expected inundate parts of the state from the end of the weekend into the middle of the upcoming week. Rainfall totals are expected to average 3-6" in Central and South Florida, with higher totals likely for areas that see multiple heavy downpours. Some locations may end up with 7-10" of rain by the time this storm system moves out.<br><br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot 2025-07-12 063516-1752323878845.png">A mid-level low pressure system will approach the coast from the Atlantic by Sunday, moving over the state on Monday, creating widespread heavy rain.</p><h1>Forecast</h1><p>Strong storms are expected to fire up in the afternoons, but evening and overnight storms are possible thanks to the extra lift created by the low. Monday looks quite wet, especially in Central and South Florida.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/2025-07-12 06-36-58-1752323897540.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Flood Outlooks</h1><p>Flood outlooks have been issued from Sunday through Wednesday, with additional heavy downpours possible after Wednesday as well. Avoid low-lying areas when heavy rain begins to fall and, if flash flood warnings are issued, seek higher ground!</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/New Baron Video 3-1752351727462.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

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<p>High pressure is moving off the California coast and building into the Northwest. Heat alerts range from the deserts of California and Nevada to the Pacific Northwest. A lot of people will be outside so make sure you are practicing heat safety especially during the hottest parts of the afternoon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752353225829.png"></p><h1>SOUTHWEST</h1><p>Some record highs could be possible across parts of California and Nevada but temperatures will be above average by 5-10 degrees through next week!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752353481872.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752353521193.png"></p><h1>NORTHWEST</h1><p>Temperatures are expected to remain above average for the next six to ten days across the region. The hottest temperatures will found in Southwest Oregon.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752354116403.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/07/1-1752354145576.png"></p>

Watching the Gulf and Atlantic for Tropical Development, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

Building Heat for West Coast Next Week

Heavy Rain Returns to Texas This Weekend

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Watching the Gulf and Atlantic for Tropical Development, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

Building Heat for West Coast Next Week

Heavy Rain Returns to Texas This Weekend

Timeline: How Catastrophic Flooding Unfolded in Texas Hill Country

Watching the Gulf and Atlantic for Tropical Development, CSU Updates Seasonal Forecast

Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat Returns to Florida

Building Heat for West Coast Next Week