Kevin Schneider

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Low-pressure systems have been on a tear recently, tracking relentlessly through the southern tier of the country this week. Stalled frontal boundaries have helped these lows ring out moisture, producing flooding and flash flooding in numerous areas. The parade of storms isn't over, either, as multiple waves of low pressure continue to move through the South into next week. With multiple rounds of storms on the way, flooding remains a considerable threat. Friday, heavy rain slammed parts of the Mobile, AL metro with rainfall estimates of nearly a foot in areas like Saraland and Satsuma!<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2058004994788647385" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2058004994788647385?s=20"></div><h1>FORECAST</h1>Going forward, the heaviest rainfall will target the lower Mississippi River Valley and into the Midwest. Some areas will pick up 3-5 more inches, with some localized areas surpassing that easily. If you live in a flood-prone area of the southern plains into the Ohio River Valley, be prepared to seek higher ground.With rounds of heavy rain expected over the next several days, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued Marginal to Slight chances for Excessive Rainfall through today and into next week.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/south flooddd-1779622194204.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>You can see that some areas, especially the Texas Gulf Coast, will have multiple days in a row of excessive rain. Flooding is likely with this forecast, and flood emergencies can't be ruled out for travelers. Use caution if you are travelling in these hard-hit areas today.A good reminder to avoid driving through flooded roadways at all costs. You never know what's under that water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-19 053417-1779190502548.png">While this rain is leading to flash flooding, it is beneficial for many areas since drought conditions are widespread and intense for many of these locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-23 071648-1779542228755.png">

Jackie Brown

Repeated Rain Raising the Flood Threat

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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Heavy rain has already hit numerous areas in the Southeast this past week, creating major flash flooding issues in Atlanta. A marginal risk for severe weather remains in place today for portions of GA, AL &amp; FL. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concern. <div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2057228892034011249" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2057228892034011249"></div>As a stalled frontal boundary lingers in the area, plenty of additional showers and storms are expected. Severe weather is possible too (top of page) with risks outlined through Saturday, so far. Additional risks may be added for Sunday and Monday. Storms have produced a few brief tornadoes like this below in Tuscaloosa County, AL, and it was rated an EF-1.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/~~~LICENSED~~~~ VON_052226_RSE_TUSCALOSSA COUNTY, AL_TORNADO PASSSES IN FRONT OF HIGHWAY_CND_CONNER JACOBS-CDN_LS_E052226-1779502531272.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> As the low moves north and east today, an associated frontal boundary will be the focus for the strongest storms. Scattered showers and storms will linger in the South through the holiday on Monday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/se-1779622058146.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>It’s,Additional heavy rain is expected to increase the potential for flash flooding, in addition to the severe weather threats. For more on the flood potential, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/repeated-rain-raises-flood-threat-down-south">click here</a>.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-23 073318-1779543220474.png">

Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Target the Southeast

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Karissa is the Director of On-Air Operations at WeatherNation. Karissa grew up loving math and science, but really fell in love with Meteorology while attending the College of DuPage in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. After two summers of storm chasing in the central plains, she knew that it was the career path for her. Standing in front of a thunderstorm and feeling the cool outflow knock her over was an experience she will never forget. After two years at COD, she transferred to Metropolitan State University of Denver. Karissa graduated Magna Cum Laude with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology. Her high school and college speech and meteorology professors were extremely supportive and pushed her to succeed. Before joining the WeatherNation team, she previously worked as the Morning Meteorologist at KCAU-TV in Sioux City, Iowa and at WMBD-TV in Peoria, IL. She recently was part of a National Edward R. Murrow award winning team for breaking news for their coverage of the EF-4 tornado in Washington, Illinois. In her free time, Karissa enjoys cooking and trying new foods. She is a self proclaimed 'TV Junkie' who can get into just about any show. She is a die hard Chicago sports fan who loves attending professional sporting events.

Karissa Klos

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NOAA has released <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season">their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season</a>. They are calling for a below normal season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. For probability, they predict a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season. As a reminder, even below average seasons can have major impacts. All it takes is one storm making landfall for it to be a devastating season in the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 100455-1779379504114.png">NOAA sites several factors in their forecast, including the burgeoning El Ni­­ño, and possible Super Ni­­ño, shaping up in the tropical Pacific. The expectation for an El Ni­­ño event during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season is a big factor in keeping numbers lower than previous years, along with near normal sea surface temperatures, which have been much above average in recent seasons.The confidence in an El Niño developing this summer is quite high, but the remaining question is how strong will the event be? A weak El Ni­­ño typically has a lower impact on the tropics in the Atlantic, while a strong El Ni­­ño has a more consistent impact. Each updated forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows higher confidence in this year's El Ni­­ño being on the strong side.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 083641-1779374209515.png">Why does El Ni­­ño typically reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin? The warmer water in the equatorial pacific often leads to a more energetic sub-tropical jet, leading to stronger winds in the upper-atmosphere over the Caribbean. Surface winds in the Caribbean most often comes from the east, known as the trade winds. When these winds lay under strong winds from the opposite (or even the same direction), it leads to strong wind shear which tears hurricanes apart.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 063418-1775740706915.png">“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”If this year's name list looks familiar, it's the same one from the historically active 2020 season. There is one difference: the name "Laura" was retired after Hurricane Laura devastated the Louisiana coast. It was replaced with "Leah".<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/04/Screenshot 2026-04-09 065301-1775741404492.png"><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/csu-releases-first-hurricane-forecast-for-2026">Colorado State University's Tropical Weather Department has already released their early forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.</a> They are calling for a near normal to slightly below average season with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Even with a slightly below average season, major hurricanes are expected with many other named storms. Any named storm that hits land can have major to extreme impacts, so join us here on WeatherNation for Hurricane Prep Week! We'll be talking science with the experts, preparations and so much more. Be sure to check us out LIVE on<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/watch-us"> these platforms</a> or on our YouTube stream June 1-7!<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CcuXpHBtV9o" start="0"></iframe></div>

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

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Several rounds of storms have been swinging through the Southern Plains the last few days, producing large hail, damaging winds, flooding, and even a few tornadoes. Severe storms will remain in the forecast for the long weekend, with all modes of severe weather possible. Yet again, hail was the biggest risk of severe weather on Friday, with hail up to tennis and baseball-sized across the Texas Panhandle. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/1-1779501942188.png">Additional scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast for parts of the Lone Star state and Mississippi (top of page), with the biggest hazards being damaging winds, large hail, and heavy downpours. An isolated tornado or two will be possible across portions of the Magnolia State. <h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-23 144208-1779568935067.png">Forecast</h1>New rounds of thunderstorms are expected across the Southern Plains through the evening hours, with some storms persisting overnight. By Sunday, the upper-level energy supporting the storms will move farther east toward the Sabine River, bringing a better chance for storms into Louisiana and Mississippi.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/sattxstorms-1779569121085.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As mentioned above, heavy rainfall is likely in spots, and flooding will occur. The Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana could see rainfall of over six inches!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-23 144544-1779569159662.png">

Dave Holder

Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released several important seasonal outlooks today, including their expectations for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane season and summer are expected to be impacted by a burgeoning El Niño, which could be very strong through much of the second half of 2026. Among the new outlooks issued are the seasonal forecasts for meteorological summer, which runs from June through August. NOAA is expecting much of the lower 48 to experience above-average temperatures (top of page), with higher confidence across the Western U.S. The Midwest and parts of the middle Mississippi Valley have an even chance for above or below-average temperatures.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 113803-1779385356524.png">Much of the country is forecast to have near-normal rainfall for meteorological summer, but a few areas are favored for below-average precipitation. These include the Texas Gulf Coast, Upper-Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest. In contrast, the Northeastern U.S. is slightly favored to see above-average precipitation. There is some confidence in parts of the Four Corners region having above-average rainfall, indicating the Climate Prediction Center expects an above-average monsoon season.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 113858-1779385377893.png">Not surprisingly, the forecast rainfall in the Four Corners could lead to drought improvement, which is expected in the seasonal drought outlook (above). Drought is also expected to improve in Florida, parts of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley. Drought is expected to expand or develop from California through Minnesota.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 113928-1779385397348.png">The North American Monsoon (NAM) develops in Mexico in June and shifts north into the Four Corners, Great Basin, and California into July, August, and September. More data is needed to understand any correlation between El Niño and the NAM, but tropical systems tend to be more active in the Eastern Pacific during El Niño years. Remnants of these systems can greatly increase rainfall during the NAM.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/05/Screenshot 2026-05-21 114106-1779385397348.png">

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast

NOAA Releases Summer Outlook, Above Average Temperatures Expected

Repeated Rain Raising the Flood Threat

Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Target the Southeast

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast

NOAA Releases Summer Outlook, Above Average Temperatures Expected

Repeated Rain Raising the Flood Threat

Severe Storms, Heavy Rain Target the Southeast

NOAA Predicts Below Normal 2026 Hurricane Season

Severe Storms Persist in the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast

NOAA Releases Summer Outlook, Above Average Temperatures Expected