WeatherNation Meteorologists

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<h1><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-marked-by-striking-contrasts">COURTESY: NOAA</a></h1>The&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&amp;basin=atl">2025 Atlantic hurricane season</a>, which officially ends on November 30, was notable for its striking contrast — wavering between periods of relative calm and bursts of intense activity, generating very powerful storms. Overall, the season fell within the predicted ranges for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes issued in&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/prediction-remains-on-track-for-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season">NOAA’s seasonal outlooks</a>."For the first time in a decade, not a single hurricane struck the U.S. this season, and that was a much needed break,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "Still, a tropical storm caused damage and casualties in the Carolinas, distant hurricanes created rough ocean waters that caused property damage along the East Coast, and neighboring countries experienced direct hits from hurricanes."<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IhS5UIupb2I" start="0"></iframe></div>“The 2025 season was the first year NOAA’s National Hurricane Center incorporated Artificial Intelligence model guidance into their forecasts,” added Jacobs. “The NHC performed exceedingly well when it came to forecasting rapid intensification for some of the more impactful storms and provided critical decision support for our Caribbean partners.”The Atlantic basin produced 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which five became hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including four major hurricanes with winds reaching 111 mph or greater. An&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.html">average season</a> has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 140651-1764191236763.png">“Throughout the hurricane season, and all year long, the National Weather Service works around the clock to meet our mission of saving lives, protecting property and enhancing the national economy,” said Ken Graham, director, NOAA's National Weather Service. “I'm grateful to this talented team for their steadfast dedication to the safety of the American public.”While the climatological peak of the hurricane season was quiet with no tropical activity, the season generated three Category 5 hurricanes, the second-most on record in a single season.&nbsp;“Fortunately, short-term weather patterns largely steered tropical systems away from the United States,” Graham added.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 140535-1764191145942.png">Tropical cyclone names are selected each year by the World Meteorological Organization (online at <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://wmo.int/).(Image">https://wmo.int/)</a><h2 style="text-align: start">Atlantic Basin: Key Storms and Statistics</h2>Tropical Storm Andrea formed on June 23, kicking off the season.&nbsp;Tropical storms Barry and Chantal then developed in rapid succession, before activity took a pause. The remnants of Barry added to the catastrophic flooding events in southern Texas on the Fourth of July.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 140753-1764191281552.png">Chantal was the only storm to make landfall in the U.S., bringing excessive rainfall and flooding to North Carolina.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 140859-1764191350109.png">Hurricane Erin was the first Category 5 storm of the season and brought storm surge and tropical storm conditions to the North Carolina Outer Banks and rough surf and rip currents along the East Coast. Erin underwent rapid intensification, and is tied for the fifth-fastest 24-hour increase in maximum sustained winds on record, from 75 mph to 160 mph. Erin also tied for the third-fastest 24-hour pressure drop in the Atlantic basin on record, dropping 83 millibars from 998 mb to 915 mb.&nbsp;Hurricane Humberto became the second Category 5 hurricane, and soon after,&nbsp; Hurricane Imelda developed and became the final storm of September.&nbsp;Humberto was helpful in pulling Imelda out into the Atlantic and away from the U.S. coast. Still, despite the fact that they were thousands of miles away, they still brought coastal erosion to the Outer Banks for North Carolina.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 141013-1764191422252.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 141148-1764191520342.png">Hurricane Melissa developed into the third Category 5 hurricane of the season, and became one of the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane landfalls on record when it made landfall in southwestern Jamaica on October 28, bringing extensive damage to Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba. Melissa was the fourth storm to undergo rapid intensification this year, with a 115-mph wind increase and a 90 millibar decrease in central pressure in a 72-hour period ending at 11 a.m. EDT on October 28.&nbsp;Four days before Melissa’s landfall in Jamaica, the NHC projected a path over western Jamaica, a forecast that ended up with a track difference of only about 13 miles. “NHC’s intensity forecasts for Melissa outperformed every model at nearly every lead time and provided almost three days of advance notice that Melissa would make landfall in Jamaica as a powerful Category 5 hurricane,” said Michael Brennan, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. “This lead time was remarkable because it was the first time NHC forecasted a hurricane to reach Category 5 intensity from such a low initial intensity when the forecast was first issued.”<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 141250-1764191579687.png"><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xyG0HraZqRI" start="0"></iframe></div><hr><h2 style="text-align: start">Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season</h2>Hurricane season activity was near-normal for both the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&amp;basin=epac">Eastern Pacific basin</a> and&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&amp;basin=cpac">Central Pacific basin</a> and fell within predicted ranges, respectively.&nbsp;The Eastern Pacific basin hurricane season produced 18 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and three intensifying to major hurricane status. Two named storms formed in the Central Pacific basin, with one, Iona, becoming a major hurricane well south of Hawaii. Eastern Pacific storms Henriette and Kiko were also hurricanes in the Central Pacific that passed northeast of Hawaii with little impact to the state.<h2 style="text-align: start">Season Scorecard: NOAA’s Research and Response</h2>This season,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/about/hurricane-hunters">NOAA’s Hurricane Hunter aircraft</a> flew 417 mission hours to collect atmospheric data that is critical to hurricane forecasting and research, passing through the eye of a hurricane 53 times and deploying more than 1,300 scientific instruments.&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/">NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory</a> hurricane researchers participated in&nbsp;52 Hurricane Hunter missions, processing&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/real-time-doppler-radar/">Tail Doppler Radar</a> scans and more than 1,100&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.omao.noaa.gov/aircraft-operations/dropsondes-minisondes-advancing-atmospheric-research">dropsonde</a>&nbsp;profiles that were used to inform real-time decisions and improve forecasts. For the first time, an&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/mini-ocean-robot-collects-data-in-category-5-hurricane/#:~:text=NOAA%20has%20teamed%20up%20with,27%2D29%2C%202025">uncrewed surface vehicle</a> captured and transmitted data from inside a Category 5 hurricane (Humberto) — a groundbreaking step in the mission to improve weather forecasting capabilities using new technologies.NOAA's&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/">National Ocean Service</a> captured thousands of aerial images in the wake of hurricanes&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/aug25/ngs-hurricane-erin.html">Erin</a> and&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/melissa/index.html#9/18.18/-77.39">Melissa</a>.&nbsp;After Hurricane Melissa swept across Jamaica, NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey supported the U.S. Department of State with its humanitarian response and recovery efforts, using&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://omao.noaa.gov/aircraft-operations">NOAA Marine and Aviation Operations aircraft and crews</a>. NOAA aircraft captured high-resolution imagery across approximately 1,573 square miles (4,075 square kilometers), logging over 55 flight hours and collecting nearly 15,000 image frames.<h2 style="text-align: start">Storm-by-Storm Analysis&nbsp;</h2>NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will produce a Tropical Cyclone Report to comprehensively document each named storm from the 2025 season. The reports will be published as they are completed through early next year and will be available on the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2025&amp;basin=atl">Tropical Cyclone Report site</a>.

Administrator

Atlantic Hurricane Season Closes Near Normal

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Kevin Schneider

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While travel conditions before Thanksgiving hopefully weren't too terrible, the other side of the timeline may be a different story! A strong wave in the atmosphere will rotate around an upper-level low dropping south, increasing precipitation chances while allowing cold polar air to spill south. This will lead to multiple impacts across the country beyond Black Friday. <h1>North Side</h1>Fresh off the heels of the last system, heavy snow will accumulate across Montana and the Dakotas to end the week. Into the weekend, the storm will continue to strengthen, with models bringing shoveable snow totals across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/11-26_RNC RNE BAMS3K FRI TO SAT-1764208334209.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>This system will also bring the coldest air of the season so far, as temperatures will struggle to warm above freezing for some throughout the weekend. Overnight lows could fall as low as the single digits in some places by Monday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 185233-1764208362025.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 131213-1764187939689.png">Snowfall totals look impressive, with a wide area picking up more than six inches of snow. The questions remain farther south, where rain is expected to mix in around southern Illinois and into the Midwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 073507-1764340521567.jpg"><h1>South Side</h1>Farther south, instability will grow during the afternoons as warm and humid air is pulled north from the Gulf. With strong upper-level winds and shear increasing by the weekend, strong storms will be possible out ahead of and along an advancing cold front.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-26 125600-1764187969050.png">A few storms may be possible on Friday, but models for Saturday depict the potential of strong storms, particularly across East Texas and into northern Louisiana in the afternoon hours. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an area from Shreveport to Houston to kick off the weekend with the best bet right now for severe storms. This comes just days after <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-side-of-houston-struck-by-tornado-monday">two tornadoes touched down near Houston</a>.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 073545-1764340551257.jpg"><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-28 12-57-46-1764359901356.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>We'll continue to update this developing story over the following days on WeatherNation!

Powerful System Will Disrupt Travel This Weekend

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While we finish our Thanksgiving food and head back home, loads of people in the Upper Midwest and Northeast are in store for a MAJOR cool down that will stretch into next week. The Climate Prediction Center has great confidence in seeing some well below-average temperatures going through early December.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 074118-1764340892649.jpg">But what's going on? Well, it all starts at the Polar Vortex, which typically traps arctic air where it belongs, at the North Pole. However, it's expected to weaken over the next week. As a result, frigid polar air descends south through Canada, impacting northern areas of the U.S.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-26 11-29-15-1764174576719.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Now let's have a look at some of the impacts. Temperatures across the Upper Midwest will dwindle down into the single digits, with places like Minneapolis having a forecast low of four degrees on Monday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 074612-1764341179950.jpg">We can also expect the winds to kick up as this arctic air makes its way down south. This could spell trouble as some of these wind chill values will likely breach sub-zero temperatures. Some of these values are getting as cold as 30 degrees below zero on Monday morning.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 074730-1764341257460.jpg">With such a major cool-down on the way, it's likely to shake things up in our atmosphere. Starting over the weekend, heavy snowfall and rainfall will likely impact several major cities nationwide, which could cause some issues for folks on their way back from their Thanksgiving celebrations!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-28 07-57-57-1764341911220.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Make sure to stay tuned to WeatherNation, where we're going to be tracking what this system brings all throughout this weekend!

Major Cooldown in Store for the Upper-Midwest

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An upper-level trough moving through the Great Lakes will head to the Northeast to bring rain, snow, winds, and lake effect snow this Thanksgiving.<h2>TIMING</h2>A low-pressure system working over the Great Lakes and northeast will continue to produce heavy snowfall, especially when our cold north-westerly winds get cranking over the warm Great Lakes that remain unfrozen.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/2025-11-27 08-16-49-1764256664379.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>AMOUNTS</h2>Some areas of the lower Great Lakes have already received more than seven inches of snowfall with this setup. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 075549-1764341761306.jpg">Winter weather alerts remain in place issued across the eastern shores of the Great Lakes through Friday. These winter alerts are for widely varying snowfall totals, with up to an additional six inches possible. Heavy snow and gusty winds could lead to whiteout conditions, where Snow Squall Warnings might be warranted. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 075650-1764341819659.jpg"><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-28 075729-1764341911365.jpg"></h2>

Lake Effect Snow for the Northeast

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It is that time of year again—when millions of Americans hit the road or the skies to connect with friends and family. AAA is expecting a record number of travelers this year, surpassing the record-breaking 2024. Most travelers will be hitting the road vs flying.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o78PUXSJCJU" start="0"></iframe></div><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 104347-1763401813998.png">With millions hitting the roads, traffic will be hard to avoid, no matter where you are heading. However, there will be some better times to do your traveling. AAA suggests starting the journey early, but with a reasonable night of sleep the night prior.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 105052-1763401888415.png">With so many traveling over the holidays, there are some favored destinations. Besides New York City, the other nine top destinations favor warm weather in late November.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 110215-1763402544204.png">How does this compare to previous years? With more than 6 million people expected to fly, that's a 2% increase compared to last year, but it's a more than 10% jump compared to pre-pandemic levels!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/11/Screenshot 2025-11-17 105653-1763402231681.png">

Major Cooldown in Store for the Upper-Midwest

Lake Effect Snow for the Northeast

A Record Breaking Thanksgiving Travel Week Expected

Atlantic Hurricane Season Closes Near Normal

Powerful System Will Disrupt Travel This Weekend

Major Cooldown in Store for the Upper-Midwest

Lake Effect Snow for the Northeast

A Record Breaking Thanksgiving Travel Week Expected

Atlantic Hurricane Season Closes Near Normal

Powerful System Will Disrupt Travel This Weekend

Major Cooldown in Store for the Upper-Midwest

Lake Effect Snow for the Northeast

A Record Breaking Thanksgiving Travel Week Expected