Brittany Lockley

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TEXAS HILL COUNTRY - Life-threatening flooding has been hitting portions of the Edwards Plateau and Texas Hill Country the last several days, amounting to rainfall totals up to two feet in places like Knippa.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077800429061320714" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2077800429061320714"></div><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784255098291.png">The result of this flooding has caused rivers to crest at major flood stage, including the Cibolo Creek in Boerne on Wednesday, which reached a record crest at 22.63 feet. The previous highest was 19.83 feet in May 2015. Thursday morning saw a huge jump on the Guadalupe River at Comfort, the same gauge that jumped over 30 feet in an hour on July 4th, 2025. It crested higher in 2026 than in 2025, reaching 37.08', as flash flood emergencies were issued again for Kerrville and the Guadalupe.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-16 114810-1784224123095.png"> <h2>What's causing all the rain?</h2>A moisture-rich weather pattern has brought multiple rounds of thunderstorms over many of the same locations. The unsettled pattern has been fueled by a persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf, combined with weak steering currents in the atmosphere. Because winds aloft are relatively light, thunderstorms will move slowly and may repeatedly track over the same areas. This process, known as training, can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time and quickly overwhelm creeks, rivers, and drainage systems.&nbsp;<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6rhkLNupAVQ" start="0"></iframe></div><h3>Who is most vulnerable?</h3>Some of the greatest concerns remain focused on the Texas Hill Country, where steep terrain and fast-responding waterways make the region especially susceptible to flash flooding. Even a few hours of intense rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and residents near streams and low-water crossings. Locations that have already received recent rainfall will be more vulnerable because saturated soils have a reduced ability to absorb additional water.&nbsp;<h2>Forecast, Alerts, and Outlooks</h2>Flood Watches are in place through Friday, with life-threatening flooding possible. Rainfall rates of 1"-2" per hour are possible. Cities like Kerrville, Fort Stockton, and Del Rio are included in the Flood Watch.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784255209689.png">The threat extends beyond the Hill Country into parts of South Texas, where slow-moving thunderstorms may produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning and isolated strong wind gusts. Urban areas could experience localized street flooding as rainfall rates exceed the capacity of storm drains, while rural communities may see rapid rises on smaller creeks and rivers. As we head into the overnight hours, more rain will be possible between Del Rio and Abilene. Friday, the heavy rain threat continues to slowly move west as the upper low moves west too. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1784255312863.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy rain will be possible, with the highest totals around the Big Bend, with isolated totals over six inches possible. Please use caution and never attempt to drive through flood waters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784255443042.png">The Weather Prediction Center has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. The WPC has issued a rare, HIGH risk (level 4 out of 4) for significant to catastrophic flooding through Friday morning. This includes places such as Rocksprings, Uvalde, and Del Rio. High-risk days account for 80% of all flood-related damages. On Friday, we're down to a slight risk for flooding as the heaviest rainfall tapers off into the weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 3-1784246024433.jpg"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784255558750.png">Residents in flood-prone areas should remain alert for Flash Flood Watches and Warnings and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways. Water levels can rise quickly during slow-moving thunderstorms, and even shallow, fast-moving water can sweep vehicles off the road.&nbsp;For more info on this forecast, you can tune into the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour.

Jesse Kelley

Texas Hill Country: Life-Threatening Flooding

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1784252071209.jpg">Wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada and northern Minnesota will send extremely dense smoke into the U.S. through late week. Forecast models show thick, dense smoke sneaking into the Great Lakes before moving across to the Northeast. Air quality will be SIGNIFICANTLY impacted in these areas. Keep scrolling to see how you can stay safe!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/FORECAST-1784252144248.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Very unhealthy to hazardous air quality has been noted into the U.S. as upper level winds have steered this dense smoke south of the international border.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1784252195343.jpg">Elevated ozone levels and smoke have prompted Air Quality alerts across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The air quality will continue to deteriorate as smoke moves into the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-16 063600-1784205373322.png"><h1>How Smoke from Wildfires Can Impact Breathing</h1><div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GIU_Kz5gPzI" start="0"></iframe></div>“We know that air pollution in general can really trigger a number of health issues, including simple things that we think about like asthma or COPD, but they can actually also trigger cardiovascular events. And smoke from wildfires is no exception,” said Samuel Gurevich, MD, pulmonologist at Cleveland Clinic. “They actually put into the air a lot of what we call particulate matter, which are these very, very fine particles of dust and other organic matter that then can easily be breathed in and can irritate the airways or even be absorbed into the bloodstream.”Dr. Gurevich said other groups that could be affected by the wildfire smoke include children with hard to control asthma, women who are pregnant, and people with pre-existing heart conditions.So, what can they do to help stay safe? He recommends checking the air quality for your city before going out for the day. That information can be found online or within many weather apps. If the air quality is bad, it’s best to stay inside.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/42cqyxmedcE" start="0"></iframe></div>“Make sure your windows are closed and your air conditioning is on. HEPA filters do a reasonably good job, as well, if you have access to that. Those are all those things you should be prepared with. And if you do already have a diagnosis of a respiratory illness like asthma, COPD, or emphysema, have a rescue plan in place,” he said.Dr. Gurevich said if you do have to go outside, try to make it as quick as possible. You could also wear an N95 mask. Anyone experiencing shortness of breath or worsening symptoms should seek medical attention right away.&nbsp;

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

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The monsoon has returned to the southwestern United States. This shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada.The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-16 071748-1784207894987.png">The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784254773806.png">Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud, and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms. There are Marginal and Slight risks for excessive rainfall and flooding over currently burning fires across Utah and Colorado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 194635-1784166400440.png">The Tucson area has been upgraded to a moderate risk (level 3 out of 4) for flash flooding tonight. With dewpoints in the 60s, rainfall totals may exceed 2" in the area, and rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hour are possible in the most intense cells. With the type of soil here in Arizona, this will lead to the potential for substantial flooding in the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1png-1784254721239.png">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/BARON 5-1784254951746.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Tucson Under Moderate Flood Risk Thursday

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Kevin Schneider

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Two areas of potential tropical development are now being monitored in the Atlantic, while in the Pacific, Elida continues to churn amongst two other areas with potential to develop.<h1>Atlantic</h1>A stalled front will meet a decaying TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough) Low, with the potential for a surface based low to form on either side of Florida. Development of the system is possible, but it will depend on where the low forms. Some heavy rain is expected in the area regardless of tropical development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 3-1784249442923.jpg">The other area we're monitoring is off the coast of Africa, where a vigorous tropical wave has emerged. Development of this system is possible in the short term, but after a few days it is expected to encounter subsidence and dry air, which should limit or end organization.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 132637-1784143610248.png"><h1>Pacific</h1><h2>ELIDA</h2>Cross another name off the list in the Pacific, we've got Elida! It earned a name early Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure finally closed off.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 2-1784236422649.jpg">Elida isn't expected to impact land, but could become the first hurricane of the season!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/PIC 3-1784236468380.jpg">There are now three areas to monitor in the Pacific Ocean, down from four earlier this week. One looks like it will form sometime early next week, in the footsteps of Elida. Secondly, another wave is passing south of Hawaii and shouldn't be an issue. Thirdly, NHC has highlighted another region that will probably follow the same paths of the high region and Elida.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/1-1784254391787.png">

Two New Tropical Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

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ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS were broken across the Western United States on Sunday, July 12th, including cities such as Billings, Montana, reaching a scorching 111° (searing the previous all-time record of 107°) and Salt Lake City, Utah, reaching a toasty 109°, which beat out the previous record set in September of 2022 at 107°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot20260712193832png-1783906806701.png" alt="main">Heat Alerts remain in place through Thursday across many areas throughout the northern tier of the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 194344-1784166230620.png">Heat safety will be a continued concern going forward. Be sure to stay hydrated and keep looking in the back seat before locking the car. The heatwave continues for the High Plains and Upper Midwest but has shifted to include the northeastern United States through tomorrow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034104-1784108476710.png">Temperatures in the northeast will be widespread in the 90s, with a few locations hitting the century mark.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034129-1784108502754.png"><h2>Southwest</h2>Dangerous Heat is also being sought across the Southwest this week. Heat alerts have been expanded across California, from the Bay Area to San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034212-1784108548489.png">Temperatures will be above normal with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. The added layer of humidity will make it difficult for your body to cool off efficiently and effectively.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034239-1784108571374.png">Here are a few heat safety tips for people affected by the heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/pic5-1783634512392.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Tucson Under Moderate Flood Risk Thursday

Two New Tropical Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

Heat Alerts Across the Nation End Thursday

Texas Hill Country: Life-Threatening Flooding

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

Tucson Under Moderate Flood Risk Thursday

Two New Tropical Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

Heat Alerts Across the Nation End Thursday

Texas Hill Country: Life-Threatening Flooding

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

Tucson Under Moderate Flood Risk Thursday

Two New Tropical Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

Heat Alerts Across the Nation End Thursday