WeatherNation Meteorologists

headshotspng-1676305264677.png

Aside from the two tropical storms that formed along the Gulf Coast, this year in the Atlantic has been fairly quiet. The lower than normal activity has been expected thanks to the major El Niño event that continues to build in the Pacific. While the season was <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/noaa-holds-steady-with-below-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast">expected to have less activity than normal</a>, it doesn't mean the Atlantic will be devoid of tropical activity. The National Hurricane Center issued an outlook Saturday morning off the West Coast of Africa in anticipation of a robust tropical wave that is expected to move off the African coast sometime Tuesday. Forecast models have been in solid agreement about the higher strength of this tropical wave, and its potential to develop, despite somewhat marginal environmental conditions.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/pic3-1786240554412.png">The NHC is giving the wave a low chance to develop over the next 7 days, but that could change as forecast factors become more clear. Both of the major global models (GFS &amp; ECMWF) give the wave a decent chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The wave will be fighting Saharan dust and near/below average sea surface temperatures, but may be able to find enough energy to get organized.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-54-30-1786197366275.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecast models in the long range take the wave north into the middle of the Atlantic, but with such long-range forecasts, there is little certainty to these solutions. People in the Caribbean and United States should be monitoring the progress of this system closely.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 075458-1786197331248.png">The next storm on the list in the Atlantic this season is Cristobal (Crees-to-bal). The development of tropical waves in western Africa tends to increase greatly from August into September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 075520-1786197341125.png">

Patrick Crawford

The Tropics Are Heating Up With Activity 2 Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

pic4png-1786240465868.png

As a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the Southwest and Southern Plains, cold fronts will continue to ride around the ridge into the Midwest and Northeast, keeping these areas of the country stormy. Multiple fronts will track through the Midwest over the next few days, bringing shifting chances for severe storms and heavy downpours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 065345-1786193861506.png">While cooler and drier air will move in briefly behind the fronts, warmth and moisture will rebuild quickly to the south, leading to plenty of instability for severe storms. The outlooks shift a bit each day (top of page), depending on where the fronts are located. Damaging winds and flooding are expected to be the primary hazards. A few isolated tornadoes are possible too!<h1>Sunday - Monday Outlooks</h1>Severe weather chances will increase Sunday and Monday around the Great Lakes, as jet stream energy and instability increase along the fronts. The SPC has issued slight risks (level 2 out of 5) for both of these days (below).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 065932-1786193985223.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 065936-1786193997426.png"><h1>Forecast</h1><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-00-11-1786194133990.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Storms are possible any time of day, but look more active from the afternoons overnight into the early mornings. As is the case with many summertime thunderstorms, big clusters of storms may form (known as an MCS) which can persist well into the overnight hours. Out forecast model likes chances for these overnight storms the next few days. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070108-1786194088338.png">While widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, areas of heavy rainfall are expected. Totals upwards of 3-4 inches are possible, with isolated to scattered flash flooding possible.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-08 07-01-12-1786194100469.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

Screenshot20260808065247png-1786193605013.png

A series of frontal systems will keep the Northeast active with storms and heavy rainfall chances into the weekend. As a front approaches the coast on Saturday, scattered severe storms are expected with damaging winds possible. Flash flooding will also be a concern, especially in urban areas.<h2>HEAT ALERTS</h2>Warm southerly flow around the Bermuda high in the Western Atlantic is keeping the coast hot and humid on Saturday. Heat alerts have been issued where heat index values will range between 95 - 105° F. Take breaks from the sun in shade or air conditioning and be sure to drink lots of water.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070515-1786194328560.png"><h2>FORECAST</h2>Friday's storms did produce several areas of damaging winds and flooding across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In the Northeast, wind gusts topped out at 58 mph in Pennsylvania. Saturday, more scattered storms are possible ahead of the cold front, which could lead to gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The best timing for the severe storms will occur during the afternoon and evening hours. The front should clear most of the Northeast on Sunday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/FORECAST-1786219970943.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h2>RAINFALL</h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 070818-1786194510592.png">Rainfall totals don't appear off the charts, but with already saturated grounds, the flooding risk is certainly here.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/1-1786156033794.png">For more on this and any flood or severe alerts in your area, be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest.

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

1png-1786155426454.png

Tracey Anthony

Tracey2jpeg-1737574224773.jpeg

A large area of high pressure continues to bring the heat across the United States. Extreme heat warnings and heat advisories are in effect across the western U.S. Find ways to stay cool and stay out of the sunshine.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 113258-1786210388632.png">HEAT RISKSIn addition to the heat alerts, the Heat Risk is up to major to extreme levels, especially across the southwest. This means that the heat will be dangerous for everyone, even if you're used to the desert heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 113322-1786210412207.png"><h1>Southwest</h1>Outside of Coastal California, the heat will be on this weekend. Temperatures will be above-average for many cities across the Southwest.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 113352-1786210445596.png"><h1>Northwest</h1>Temperatures across the interior Northwest will spike over the next few days as well, with heat alerts issued across the Interstate 5 corridor. Smoke from nearby wildfires is expected to filter some sunshine out and curb temperatures by a degree or two, but won't keep some from threatening the century mark again.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-08 113428-1786210481276.png">These temperatures across the northwest will also affect firefighter efforts to get wildfires in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho under control. More on the fires burning in the northwest: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/pacific-northwest-fires-bringing-down-the-air-quality">Spokane Complex Fire Continues to Burn</a>.For everyone across the country dealing with the intense heat, practice heat safety, take frequent breaks, and stay hydrated as best as you can in the days to come. The longer-range outlook for temperatures from August 11 - 15 has higher confidence that temperatures will remain above average.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-05 195401-1785981245479.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Brittany Lockley

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

pic3png-1786154822632.png

BrittanyLockleyjpeg-1679519515040.jpeg

NOAA is not changing its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, continuing to forecast fewer tropical storms and hurricanes than what is typically seen during an average year.&nbsp;Forecasters say the overall pattern across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans still supports a quieter season. The ongoing influence of El Niño is expected to create stronger upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for developing tropical systems to organize and strengthen into hurricanes.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085032-1786027844121.png">NOAA continues to predict&nbsp;7 to 13 named storms&nbsp;this season. Of those,&nbsp;2 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, while&nbsp;0 to 2&nbsp;could reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.&nbsp;<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2085374878392172899" src="https://x.com/NOAA/status/2085374878392172899/photo/2"></div>The agency says there is a&nbsp;75% chance of a below-average season, a&nbsp;20% chance of near-average activity, and only a&nbsp;5% chance of an above-average season.&nbsp;Although the season has been relatively quiet, with only two Gulf storms in the Atlantic basin thus far (Arthur &amp; Bertha), NOAA&nbsp;cautions that the busiest stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season is just beginning. Historically, tropical activity ramps up in August and peaks around mid-September before gradually declining through the fall.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-06 085119-1786027891236.png">NOAA also reminds residents that seasonal forecasts are meant to estimate the total number of storms, not where they will track. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to produce significant damage and life-threatening impacts, regardless of whether the season ends below average.&nbsp;With several months remaining in hurricane season, emergency officials encourage people living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts to have a hurricane plan in place, review evacuation routes, and keep emergency supplies ready in case a storm threatens their area.&nbsp;

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

The Tropics Are Heating Up With Activity 2 Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast

The Tropics Are Heating Up With Activity 2 Areas to Monitor in the Atlantic

Series of Fronts Keeps the Midwest Stormy

Severe Storms Target I-95 Saturday, D.C. to NYC

Western U.S. Under More Heat Alerts

NOAA holds steady with below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast