Brittany Lockley

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The first tropical threat of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico as Potential Tropical Cyclone One continues to organize over warm waters. This broad area of low pressure is just off the Texas Coast. The National Hurricane Center believes that its chances of becoming a named tropical storm may appear to be decreasing. This is due to the system encountering strong wind shear, which is preventing it from developing. Nonetheless, Potential Tropical Cyclone One continues to bring the dangerous threat of flooding to the Gulf Coast.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-17 031529-1781687740656.png">Heavy rain has already led to issues in the Lone Star State to start the week. Rich, tropical moisture has rushed northward, meeting a slow-moving boundary. That recipe has led to numerous reports of flash flooding, starting late Sunday night. The rain threat continues, as tropical moisture brings heavy rain.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2066498460266725833" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2066498460266725833?s=20"></div>As some residents struggled to get home, they could see more issues over the coming days with flooding. The primary hazard from this system will be excessive rainfall rather than damaging winds. Deep tropical moisture, combined with slow storm motion and efficient rain-producing thunderstorms, is expected to result in widespread rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the western and central Gulf Coast. Localized amounts exceeding 20 inches are possible where bands of heavy rain repeatedly move over the same locations, increasing the risk of flash flooding and urban flooding.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/2026-06-17 03-28-36-1781688624027.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>That rich moisture will loiter around the Gulf, with another front looking to stall out through the middle and end of the week. Rounds of heavy rain will threaten the area each of the next 5 days. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted areas from Texas to Louisiana with the greatest threat of flash flooding, issuing a MODERATE RISK (level 3 out of 4) of excessive rainfall.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/epc erops-1781653493198.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The storm’s broad circulation is also drawing significant moisture northward from the Gulf, creating a large area of unsettled weather well east of the center. This tropical moisture plume will support periods of heavy rain extending from eastern Texas and Louisiana into Mississippi, Alabama, and portions of the Florida Panhandle. Areas that have experienced recent rainfall could be especially vulnerable to flooding concerns.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-17 032020-1781688670720.png">In addition to the rainfall threat, tropical-storm-force wind gusts are expected along portions of the Louisiana coastline, especially between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Morgan City, LA, where Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect. Gusty winds may bring down tree limbs and cause scattered power outages, particularly in stronger rain bands east of the system's center.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-17 033134-1781688705224.png"> Persistent onshore winds are expected to push Gulf waters inland, leading to water levels running several feet above normally dry ground in vulnerable coastal areas. Although widespread significant storm surge is not anticipated, minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines on Wednesday. The water could reach 2-4' above ground from Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-17 032652-1781688425797.png">If the system becomes Arthur, it would mark the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and serve as an early reminder that flooding rainfall often poses the greatest danger from tropical cyclones, regardless of their wind intensity. Residents across the Gulf Coast should continue monitoring forecasts and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions as the system approaches land. Tune into WeatherNation on Youtube for the latest details.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hPTDldpiWUQ" start="0"></iframe></div>

Potential Tropical Cyclone Raises Flood Threat Along Gulf Coast

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The Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast have been quite active over the past few weeks with severe weather. On Wednesday, another severe weather outbreak could be possible, according to the Storm Prediction Center. The main area to watch is over the central portions of Indiana and Illinois. The main concerns for Wednesday will be long-track tornadoes EF-2 or higher, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. <h3>WEDNESDAY: MIDWEST</h3>A system continues to move south into areas in the Midwest. A warm front will bring strong storms in the morning, followed by a cold front that will bring additional severe storms. In the afternoon and evening, elevated supercells will become a threat across portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. There is a MODERATE (Level 4 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms across these states, with an ENHANCED risk extending into Ohio and Kansas.The threat of supercells brings the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes. If storms develop more quickly during the day and grow into clusters sooner, the threat of significant wind gusts will increase, while the risks of tornadoes and large hail will decrease.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-16 114621-1781631987591.png">There is a moderate risk of flooding across the Chicago metro through Wednesday.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-16 162319-1781648622919.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-17 041807-1781691507953.png">There will be early morning activity with storms moving along the warm front through Iowa, Illinois, and the Ohio River Valley. With the heat and humidity, the atmosphere will be able to recover quickly. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front into the late afternoon. This whole front keeps moving east into Thursday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/2026-06-17 04-18-54-1781691590648.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center also has a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for Thursday as the system makes its way to the East Coast. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. The forecast may change, so stay with us for the latest updates.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-17 042019-1781691634158.png">For more info on this forecast, tune into WeatherNation :10 and :30 past the hour for your eastern and central regional forecasts.

Rounds of Severe Weather This Week

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Originally born in Spokane, Washington,  Jackie's Dad was in the Air Force which led her to a life of travel. She has lived in Wichita, Okinawa, Japan, Baltimore, New Jersey, Indiana and South Carolina.  After graduating from Kadena High School, in Okinawa Japan, she got a full basketball scholarship to Coppin State College. On the court she was a 4-year starter and reached over 1000 points in her basketball career. She was also named Athlete of the Year for the whole university in 2002. Off the court, she earned a degree in Broadcast Production/English.

After college, she landed a job as a radio personality. Jackie went on to have a successful career for 12 years working at KXLY broadcast center. While on the radio, she decided to change career. Jackie went back to school, graduating from the Mississippi State Meteorology Broadcast Program. From snow, to tornadoes, to hurricanes, she has had experience forecasting all these events.

Jackie Brown

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A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate, bringing the heat out west and into the southern plains. Heat alerts continue over the next few days. With the heat and dry conditions out west, there are also fire concerns in place. Heat and humidity in the southern plains will bring feel-like temperatures into the 100s! <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/heat alerts -1781662420870.png">Red flag warnings and fire weather watches are in place this week, as conditions are favorable for rapid fire growth.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/fire dangersss-1781662495848.png">Texas and Oklahoma heat alerts remain in place as hot temperatures and humidity will make it feel like temperatures well into the 100s! Hot temperatures and high humidity in this part of the country can increase heat illness. Make sure to take breaks and find ways to stay cool.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/txxas heat-1781662537018.png">On Thursday, Houston will have a heat index value of 114° and Corpus Christi will feel like 117°<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/heat idexee-1781662571317.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Heat Alerts & Fire Concerns  For Central & West U.S.

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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<h3>WELCOME TO THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON SEASON. </h3>The North American Monsoon Season (NAMS) spans from June 15 through September 30th. It is also referred to as the Southwest Monsoon and is typically strongest during July and August. <h3>What is the North American Monsoon?</h3>The North American Monsoon is a seasonal change in atmospheric circulation that occurs during the summer across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States, including parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and California. The monsoon can bring stormy weather, flooding rains, dust storms, extreme heat, and wildfire concerns to the region.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 153448-1781473579558.png">As the land heats up during the summer months and high pressure develops over the Southwest, a shift in wind patterns pulls moisture northward from the eastern Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California. This increase in moisture provides fuel for thunderstorms. As a result, the region can experience afternoon and evening thunderstorms, heavy rainfall over short periods of time, frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds, flash flooding (epecially in canyons and burn scar areas), and occasionally dust storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 152535-1781473586719.png"><h3>Seasonal Outlook</h3>For the upcoming season, the Climate Prediction Center's Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates that drought is likely to persist across portions of the Four Corners region, but improvement is expected in many areas. Meanwhile, drought conditions across Nevada are forecast to persist and may even expand.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 152751-1781473694048.png">Something to note, the CPC is not guaranteeing a wet monsoon season but they are favoring above-normal precipitation and improved odds of drought relief.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 152746-1781473762291.png"><h3>Why is it so important?</h3>The monsoon provides a large portion of the annual rainfall for many desert locations across the Southwest. In Arizona, for example, the monsoon can account for nearly half of the state's yearly precipitation. This rainfall can help reduce drought impacts, improve soil moisture, and lower wildfire risk. However, it can also bring hazards such as flash flooding and dangerous lightning.<h3><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 155918-1781474388486.png">Forecast for this week</h3>Storms are in the forecast across parts of the southwestern United States, but heat will be the primary weather concern during the first few days of the monsoon season.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 160114-1781474494246.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-14 160128-1781474499827.png">For more on this season's monsoonal storm chances, be sure to join us on WeatherNation for the latest forecast and updates.

Welcome To Monsoon Season - Here's What to Expect

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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El Niño has arrived! It didn't take long for La Niña conditions this spring to quickly be replaced in the equatorial Pacific over the last few months. A big surge of warm water has now reached the surface after traveling in deeper waters for months, taking sea surface temperatures up to the level needed for an El Niño designation.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2065059465326444738" src="https://x.com/NOAAComms/status/2065059465326444738"></div> El Niño is expected to continue for the foreseeable future (below), and will likely to continue to strengthen through the summer into fall and possibly winter (top of page). You've probably heard the term "super" El Niño mentioned - which is the same as a "very strong" El Niño in the graphic above. "Super" El Niño isn't a term officially recognized, but seeing temperatures that warm in the Pacific typically mean bigger impacts to global weather patterns, including hurricane season and the winter forecast in the United States. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-11 102033-1781194881870.png">A strong or very strong El Niño is different than a weak or moderate El Niño in terms of impacts. A very strong El Niño typically leads to a tighter and stronger sub-tropical jet, which increases wind shear in the Atlantic. If a moderate El Niño is in place through hurricane season, it's impacts in the Atlantic could be less pronounced. Regardless, WeatherNation will be monitoring the latest in the tropics and will bring you updates all season long.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/06/Screenshot 2026-06-11 102059-1781195492270.png">To read the full release from NOAA about El Niño emerging - <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://t.co/lS3v4K6TMC">click here!</a>

Heat Alerts & Fire Concerns For Central & West U.S.

Welcome To Monsoon Season - Here's What to Expect

El Niño Forms, Very Strong El Niño Likely Late 2026

Potential Tropical Cyclone Raises Flood Threat Along Gulf Coast

Rounds of Severe Weather This Week

Heat Alerts & Fire Concerns For Central & West U.S.

Welcome To Monsoon Season - Here's What to Expect

El Niño Forms, Very Strong El Niño Likely Late 2026

Potential Tropical Cyclone Raises Flood Threat Along Gulf Coast

Rounds of Severe Weather This Week

Heat Alerts & Fire Concerns For Central & West U.S.

Welcome To Monsoon Season - Here's What to Expect

El Niño Forms, Very Strong El Niño Likely Late 2026