Kevin Schneider

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We are now a week after the climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season, so where is the activity? Several factors contribute to this season being extremely quiet so far. For one, it has been dry and stable with more wind shear around the Atlantic Basin. That has helped limit storm development off the coast of Africa. Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into Tropical Storm Gabrielle. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 030509-1758099925464.png">Currently, there is no direct hazard to land, however it might be a close call for the island of Bermuda. Many of the spaghetti plots that take it out to sea sooner are stronger - if it were to remain weak, it could affect some islands, but it might not be a tropical storm at that point.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 090107-1758121397706.png">Meanwhile, in the next few days, a plume of Saharan dust will move around the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, reducing chances for thunderstorms to organize, but there is a potential for some slow development after the fact.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-16 saharan dust-1758076139006.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>There is another tropical wave that the NHC is also monitoring set to roll off of the west coast of Africa. Nothing is expected to develop in the next few days, with the earliest timeline starting this weekend for that one<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202919-1758076167654.png">Do not let your guard down! September is historically the peak of hurricane season, and ocean conditions remain favorable for additional development. However, the NHC urges residents along the Atlantic basin to monitor updates closely.<div data-youtube-video=""><iframe width="640" height="480" allowfullscreen="false" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/W2bhqfX0B0A" start="0"></iframe></div>What is slightly concerning are the water temperatures in the Gulf. Right now, they are 1°C warmer than they usually are for this time of the year. That being said, it's been tough to get anything over those warm waters so far this season-let's hope that continues.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-13 051452-1757762098585.jpg">As always, preparedness is key. Whether or not this particular system develops into a named storm, it serves as a reminder that the Atlantic remains active and that the window for tropical threats is far from closed. Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest updates.

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

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We've got a low-pressure system out over the open waters, sitting on the warm Gulf Stream waters in the middle of September. Sounds like tropical mischief, right? While nothing is expected to gain tropical characteristics over the next day or so, we could still have mischief.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 091914-1757949628000.png"><h2>Forecast Rainfall</h2>Arguably, the biggest impact of this low spinning onshore will be the rainfall, especially where it falls. Over the last couple of days, these areas have been inundated with an excessive amount of rain, with the largest totals staying in Virginia and Maryland.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1758127278561.png">An excessive rainfall outlook has been issued through Wednesday for rainfall totals upwards of 3-5" with localized maximums being even higher.<h1>Forecast Winds</h1>It might not be "tropical," but the highest wind gusts could approach tropical-storm-force at times. It looks like it might not be the wind that causes a ton of problems, but the direction of the wind: coastal flooding and rip current risks could pose some dangerous problems at times. Coastal inundation is only expected to approach a foot or two in low-lying, susceptible areas of the coast but the rip current risk is high along the shorelines.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Web1-1758107888500.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

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The dry time has been a little hard to enjoy the last week or two in South Florida. While this is the rainy season, and we're making up for a slow start to it, you can still roll your eyes at what the extended forecasts have looked like recently. In fact, some spots in South Florida have already had their wettest start to September, including Miami.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163631-1758062210080.png">On the other end of the spectrum, some northern Florida spots have really missed out, making it the driest start to September in areas such as Gainesville and Tallahassee.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 163641-1758062216443.png">So why? Just because Florida likes to have the most fun? Well, actually, a frontal boundary keeps these storms coming for days. While we've had a couple of days of relief, more moisture is in the forecast for South Florida.That, along with a TON of moisture to work with, is attempting to catch up some drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State. The Drought Monitor updated on Thursday and had some pretty sizeable improvements in South Florida.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/2025-09-11 09-39-57-1757605257541.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>So while it might be easy to complain about beach plans constantly getting ruined, it has its benefits. Our biggest concern is the lightning threat associated with any Florida thunderstorm, but especially this time of year, with people outdoors. Anytime it rains this heavily, of course, the flash flooding threat will be there as well. Some areas could receive another 3-5 inches, or even more, before the rain chances start to back off next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/web1-1758127072858.png">

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

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CENTRAL U.S - A trough pushing in from the west has been responsible for severe storms across the High Plains since this weekend. It's now pushing into the Central Plains, ushering a slow-moving cold front through the area. Massive hail smashed windshields in Nebraska as a result (above)Related: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/north-dakota-breaks-yearly-tornado-record">Dakota Tornado Record Falls Over the Weekend</a>Today, the front is working southward, bringing the threat of more hailstones and damaging winds with an outside shot at a tornado. Storms will continue to blossom in coverage through the overnight hours. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 100659-1758125237311.png">Farther north, the flooding threat will be one to contend with. Over the next few days, multiple chances for rain could overwhelm already saturated grounds. We have seen flooding across portions of the Northern Plains, and this threat will continue through this week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202100-1758075691926.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-16 202152-1758075719203.png">Always use caution with flood waters, as you never know how deep the water is. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Storms Slide Down the Plains Today

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While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet this season, the Eastern Pacific has been more active, particularly in recent months. Early Saturday morning, Mario dissipated southwest of the Baja Peninsula, only to reemerge Sunday morning as a tropical storm. One other tropical wave has a likely chance of developing over the next week.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-15 184318-1757983404971.png"><h1>Bye Bye Mario</h1>Mario has once again weakened upon encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and enhanced shear. It became post-tropical once and for all Tuesday night. The leftover moisture from Mario is expected to drift north, landing in Southern California by mid-to-late week, possibly leading to flooding.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/09-15_rsw mario-1757983442769.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>It's more about where that moisture is heading: into southern California. Downtown LA hasn't seen rain since the beginning of JUNE!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 104048-1758127280118.png">The tropical nature of the rainfall could lead to some flooding in southern California and Arizona on Thursday. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/09/Screenshot 2025-09-17 104616-1758127716967.png">

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

Storms Slide Down the Plains Today

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, But Sends Moisture to Cali

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

Storms Slide Down the Plains Today

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, But Sends Moisture to Cali

ATLANTIC: Gabrielle Forms in the Atlantic

Coastal Low Spins Trouble Onshore

Florida Rainfall: Nuisance or Beneficial?

Storms Slide Down the Plains Today

Eastern Pacific: Mario Fizzles, But Sends Moisture to Cali