WeatherNation Meteorologists

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The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. There is a low chance of tropical development being monitored in the Atlantic Basin.<h1>Atlantic Basin</h1>There is an area being monitored east of Bermuda with a medium chance of tropical development. Right now, no deterministic models love this area, but plenty of AI models seem to. Worth watching, but again, not threatening unless you're going to Bermuda.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789696715982.png">The end of September and start of October could get interesting in the Atlantic, as more widespread lift is expected to develop. Wind shear is still at a record high, which should be able o crush any waves coming off of Africa. Tropical development will have better potential in the western Atlantic and Gulf, where shear is much lower.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 091009-1789657855421.png"><h1>Eastern &amp; Central Pacific Basins</h1>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with good chances for two of the waves to develop into tropical cyclones. The central wave will track west, while the more easterly wave could stay closer to Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 4-1789690631351.png">Neither has a clear path toward land yet, but both are worth monitoring for interests in Mexico and Hawaii. Global models develop both systems, with the central wave looking at better conditions to strengthen quickly.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 094208-1789659741282.png"><h1>El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-15 105410-1789491264736.png">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png">

Jesse Kelley

Topics: Pacific Stays Active, Watching One Wave in the Atlantic

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Tracey Anthony

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No surprise here: More records were broken across the Southern U.S. on Wednesday (above). Dallas, TX has had a very hot September. Dallas, TX did not break a record high today, but they did record another high temperature of 100 degrees. This is the most days at or above 100° the Dallas metro has ever seen now at 15 days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 061131-1789642283328.png">The Heat paired with very dry conditions, is now leading to brush &amp; wildfire issues for the South Central Plains<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2100336425468387653" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2100336425468387653"></div>Heat Advisories remain in place through this week. Temperatures will be hot and the humidity will make it feel even hotter.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 5-1789691280266.png">On Friday, temperatures will be hot for many. But with the temperatures combined with the humidity, things are going to be hot. With the humidity spots like Little Rock will feel like 106°. New Orleans will have a high of 90°, but will feel like 96°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 4-1789691340731.png">The longer-range forecast does not bring much relief in sight. There remains a higher confidence that temperatures will stay above normal through mid-late September.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 045119-1789555890283.png">

Summer Heat Holds it's Grip on the South

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div>While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 073312-1789392812595.png"><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño continues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 074742-1789566465249.png">El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png">

Patrick Crawford

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

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An area of low pressure in the Gulf of California is going to streamline moisture into the Four Corners this week. A SLIGHT threat for heavy rainfall and flooding has been issued for the Four Corners region through Friday morning as this increased moisture more rain on areas already dealing with excess water from storms the last few days.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FORECAST-1789688885751.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2099906097209340139" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2099906097209340139"></div>Rainfall totals could exceed several inches. Do not drive through flooded waters. Be on higher lookout for mudslides and debris flows from recent burn scars.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-03-29 062111-1789642952358.png">The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has added some Marginal risks for severe storms over the Northern 4 Corners into this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 4-1789689011152.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 5-1789689038736.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 4-1789689088585.png">Below is the latest on the timing of these showers and storms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FORECAST-1789689177972.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>More details can be found during your Western Regional Forecast, :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Significant Moisture Increases Flooding Threat for the Southwest This Week

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It's no secret that the Midwest has been the spot to watch for severe weather. However, when severe weather strikes, it's important to never sleep on that flooding threat.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2100200528651198923" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2100200528651198923"></div>With a stubborn ridge draped across the southeast, Gulf moisture will continue to get pushed into the central U.S. through the week. Multiple rounds of fronts will spark up showers and thunderstorm. When the same locations see a multi-day threat, you know the flood potential increases.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-04-07 060930-1789643847317.png">The heaviest of the rain moving forward through the weekend positions itself across Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-04-06 063258-1789643863028.png"><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1>The fronts will provide enough shear to help a few storms organize, with wind and hail threats. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 100208-1789663142021.png">Thankfully the threats will be on the lower end, but gusty winds and hail will still be able to cause damage.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 100212-1789663142024.png">A new round of storms gets going late Thursday across the Plains before heading toward the Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday. Storms should gradually clear through Sunday with a slight drop in temperatures. <video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-17 10-17-46-1789663160086.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Tune into WeatherNation for your full Central U.S. breakdown at :30 past the hour!

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

Significant Moisture Increases Flooding Threat for the Southwest This Week

Rounds of Storms Increase the Flood Threat in the Midwest

Topics: Pacific Stays Active, Watching One Wave in the Atlantic

Summer Heat Holds it's Grip on the South

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

Significant Moisture Increases Flooding Threat for the Southwest This Week

Rounds of Storms Increase the Flood Threat in the Midwest

Topics: Pacific Stays Active, Watching One Wave in the Atlantic

Summer Heat Holds it's Grip on the South

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

Significant Moisture Increases Flooding Threat for the Southwest This Week

Rounds of Storms Increase the Flood Threat in the Midwest