Kevin Schneider

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<p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The Pacific Ocean has been incredibly active so far this hurricane season, and it shows no sign of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Atlantic remains mostly quiet, as record wind shear continues to tear apart tropical waves moving off Africa. While shear is high in the MDR, is hasn't been as robust farther north, where a new tropical storm developed early Sunday morning (above).</span></p><h1>Atlantic Basin</h1><p>Tropical depression Six formed Saturday morning to the west of the Azores, otherwise the basin remains quiet, with no additional activity expected over the next 7 days.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 4-1789860962047.png"></p><p>This system is not expected to be impactful for the United States, but will continue to create heavy rain and big waves near its path, which is expected to track southwest as it weakens.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/PIC 5-1789861107670.png"></p><p>The end of September and start of October could get interesting in the Atlantic Basin, as more widespread lift is expected to develop. Wind shear is still at a record high, which should be able to crush any waves coming off of Africa. Tropical development will have better potential in the western Atlantic and Gulf, where shear is much lower.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-17 091009-1789657855421.png"></p><h1>Eastern &amp; Central Pacific Basins</h1><p>Several systems are being monitored in the Pacific, with good chances for two of the waves to develop into tropical cyclones. The central wave will meander a bit, while the more easterly wave could stay closer to Mexico.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789869862901.png"></p><p></p><p>Neither has a clear path toward land yet, but both are worth monitoring for interests in Mexico and Hawaii. Global models develop both systems which could become our next named storms! Here is a snapshot of the model by Wednesday. Next on the list is Odalys and Polo.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/WEB 5-1789739526003.png"></p><h1><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">El Niño Fueling Pacific Activity</span></strong></h1><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-15 105410-1789491264736.png"></p><p><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 073748-1789565873978.png"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0)">This year’s El Nino has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.</span></p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-12 063433-1789216512410.png"></p>

Tropics: Two More Systems Named Sunday

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<p style="margin: 0in; margin-bottom: .0001pt;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #454545;">Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a></span></p>

Rob Bradley

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<p>A ridge of high pressure that's controlled the weather pattern in the U.S. for much of the past month is still calling the shots for the next couple of days. While folks under the ridge have been dealing with record heat, storms tracking around the ridge in the north have continued to pummel the Midwest and East Coast with heavy rain and gusty winds.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2100200528651198923" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2100200528651198923"></div><p>The same storm track through the Midwest will persist into early Sunday, with several rounds of heavy rain anticipated. This will increase the flood threat before a drier pattern develops next week.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/1-1789696996361.png">Heavy rain will continue into Sunday for many of the same spots that were under the risk for flooding on Saturday. There could be an upgrade to this outlook as we get into Sunday morning if it looks like the rain could end up being heavier.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FORECAST-1789860543699.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1><p>Overnight storms could be severe through the Midwest early Sunday, but more storms could redevelop for Sunday afternoon and get up to severe strength. Hail and damaging winds should be the primary weather threats.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/FORECAST-1789860700500.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>Tune into WeatherNation for your full Central U.S. breakdown at :30 past the hour!</p>

Patrick Crawford

Significant Flood Risk Targets The Midwest, Includes Chicago

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<p>Severe storms and heavy rain have been targeting the Rockies since Thursday, when large hail began battering portions of Utah and Idaho. Two tornadoes were even captured on video in Utah on Friday, including the mountainside twister you see below!</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/TORNADOINFRUITHEIGHTSUT-ezgif.com-video-to-gif-converter-1789822080945.gif"></p><h1>Flood Risk</h1><p>Saturday's storms produced some heavy rain and flooding across Central Montana and Billings, MT recorded a new daily rainfall record. As the upper low lingers across the Northern Rockies, a Marginal and Slight Risk remains for the rest of the weekend.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/BARON 5-1789870524907.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><p></p><p>Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected from western Nebraska through southern Montana, with localized totals topping 3-5 inches.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 071621-1789823902127.png"></p><h1>Severe Storms &amp; Timing</h1><p>Hail, wind, and tornado damage will be possible through Sunday as the upper-level low provides plenty of lift and wind shear. The I-25 corridor form eastern Wyoming into Colorado are favored for severe storms, with more intense storms just east of the corridor.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 071612-1789823871310.png"></p><p>While wind is the primary hazard expected, large hail is possible along with a tornado or two. The SPC is highlighting eastern Colorado on Sunday with a low-end tornado threat.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-19 071618-1789823880436.png"></p><p>Storms will likely be most active in the afternoons, as daytime heating provides additional energy. As the upper-level low slowly moves eastward, so will the heaviest rain and severe storm chances. A few showers will linger into Monday, but aren't likely to cause additional issues.</p><video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/BARON 5-1789870755010.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>

Jesse Kelley

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies This Weekend

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<p>The second largest reservoir in the United States now sits at its lowest level on record, following a dismal year for snowfall in the Central Rockies. Images released by NASA (top of page) show the contrast with 2017, which saw heavy snow during the preceding winter and thus, plentiful runoff during the spring and summer.<br><br><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131721-1789759308683.png"></p><p>Downstream, Lake Mead and the Parker Dam are both at their lowest levels at to-date over the past 30 years. Both are also fed by the struggling Colorado River. River managers have had to take action to keep water levels above the threshold necessary to generate power, including releasing extra water from upstream basins and cancelling timed releases set to help native species survive on the river.</p><h1>Snowpack Determines River Levels</h1><p>While the Southwest Monsoon has had a solid season in 2026, those hit or miss thunderstorms are only a drop in the bucket compared to the water supplied to the Colorado River from melting snow. The river is fed by numerous mountain ranges in the Central and Southern Rockies, though most of the water comes from the mountains west of the continental divide in Colorado.</p><h2><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131656-1789760441419.png"></h2><p>Snowpack in Colorado got a late surge in the Spring but was still near record lows, especially in Southwestern Colorado. Many ski resorts were forced to shut down a week to a month ahead of normal. The melt-off of the snowpack was the second earliest on record. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 134932-1789760993718.png"></p><p>The deficit of precipitation is tremendous in many areas, but western Colorado stands out with the bright red colors, indicating at least 2 feet of water missing over the last year. Other mountain ranges that send runoff into the Colorado are also lagging well behind, with deficits of 1-2 feet widespread across the west. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 131534-1789761117664.png"></p><h1>Winter Outlook</h1><p>The surging El Niño could offer some help in the form of heavy precipitation. Wetter than average conditions are favored across much of the west, with near normal precipitation favored for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Unfortunately after many years of below average precipitation, it would likely take many successive seasons to help the river return to normal. </p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-18 135826-1789761517713.png"></p>

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

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<p>For the first time in the satellite era (since 1966), no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin to date, breaking the record for the latest date in the season. Two seasons previously held the record, with both Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013) becoming the first hurricanes of their respective seasons at 8 am on September 11th. <br><br>For the real nerds and weather historians out there, 1907 and 1914 did not have hurricanes either, but records in these years relied on observations from ships in the ocean or if a hurricane made landfall. Hurricanes could have formed in these years, but may have been missed due to a lack of satellites.</p><div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2098422798066798906" src="https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/2098422798066798906"></div><p></p><p>While there have been five named storms to date, they've all been tropical storms, producing limited energy. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) measures total energy released by tropical cyclones and can be a good way to compare seasonal activity. So far, the Atlantic has produced less than 10% of its average ACE, while the Pacific has been nearly doubling what's expected.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-14 073312-1789392812595.png"></p><h1>El Niño Continues to Crush Atlantic Activity, Set To Break Records</h1><p>It's not surprising the Atlantic has been quiet while activity in the Pacific has been exploding. El Niño continues to break records and is expected to be the strongest on record as it peaks from the fall into the winter. El Niño is a global weather pattern, characterized by a shift in wind direction which pushes warm water east across the equator toward South America. These warmer water temperatures fuel tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific, but the warm water also alters the behavior of trade winds in the Atlantic. The increased wind shear from the trades often tears apart tropical systems as they try to get organized.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-16 074742-1789566465249.png"></p><p>El Niño is expected to continue to intensify through the end of hurricane season, with a gradual wind down through the late winter and spring months. This should continue to limit tropical activity in the Atlantic, but that doesn't mean additional systems can't form and hit the United States. Remember, while wind shear increases over most of the Atlantic during strong El Niño events, the Gulf and western Atlantic (off the east coast of the US) can have less shear, leading to a better chance of systems forming closer to the coast. We've already experienced that several times this season with tropical storms.</p><p><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot 2026-09-10 124853-1789066432246.png"></p>

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies This Weekend

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

Tropics: Two More Systems Named Sunday

Significant Flood Risk Targets The Midwest, Includes Chicago

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies This Weekend

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record

Tropics: Two More Systems Named Sunday

Significant Flood Risk Targets The Midwest, Includes Chicago

Storms Continue to Pummel the Rockies This Weekend

Lake Powell Drops to Record Low

No Hurricanes Yet in the Atlantic, A New Record