Kevin Schneider

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We've been locked in a relatively quiet stretch of late when talking about severe storms. In fact, October is on a run of 11 straight days with only a MARGINAL or general thunderstorm risk. The nation hasn't seen this kind of stretch since the end of February! This remarkably quiet jog will likely come to an end this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 091348-1760541236378.png">The same system that brought California some early-season snow and heavy rain is now moving across the Rockies. By this weekend, the stage will be set for storms that could bring damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes.<h1>SETUP</h1>A strong cold front will drop through the southern plains Friday into Saturday. Ahead of it, warm temperatures - some that might threaten records - will greet it. The clash between the two air masses will help drive thunderstorms well up in the atmosphere.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093129-1760542364613.png">That simple difference between hot and cold is enough to bet on, so much so that the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area along the Mid-Mississippi River Valley for severe storms. However, this far in advance of a system, there is plenty to still iron out.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760614739342.png">Are there going to be storms? Likely. How strong to potentially severe will they be? That's up in the air. It's still a little too early to tell which fine-scale ingredients will be in play.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093533-1760542706942.png">TIMING</h1>During the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1978445758908043673">secondary severe season</a>, you don't always know what you're going to get as far as timing. This event appears to be favoring the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. However, there's plenty of time for that to change between now and then.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/cf-1760578600704.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>THREATS</h1>It's a little early to rule out many specific threats. It does look like areas that have been abnormally dry recently could get a strong dousing of water, which could be tough to handle. Be sure to keep up with the forecast for the rest of the week, as we get a better sense of what will unfold this weekend.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093956-1760543118412.png">

Jesse Kelley

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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The Atlantic hurricane season has been a relatively quiet one so far. Any cyclone that has formed has stayed out to sea, as seen with Lorenzo most recently. Within the next two weeks, there is a medium chance that something will develop in the Atlantic. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has identified several regions with potential for tropical development through the end of October. Today, the National Hurricane Center has a highlighted a region to monitor over the next seven days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1png-1760641349528.png">Some of the longer range models have been hinting at some potential tropical development of the Caribbean wave in the next week or so! Most of models have this system heading into the Caribbean next week! Below is just ONE MODEL RUN of what could happen going forward!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760641623459.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 075312-1760622806027.png">The concerns? The Caribbean is still as warm as bathwater right now, so it wouldn't take much time for something to potentially organize. The concern after that? Where does the system go IF it develops? Again, still a big IF, but climatologically speaking, this is where we would expect an October storm. Waters in the Caribbean will stay warmer later into the season, which helps keep the window of opportunity open for development.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 075337-1760622828329.png">So what's the final outcome with this system? How many systems have "looked good" 12 days out and have fizzled on us this year? Are there some ensemble models that find some development? Sure. Are all of them developing this wave? Not yet. October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640874342.png">There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640961225.png">Thunderstorms are already firing up along the front and the severe potential will be there during the afternoon and evening hours. The cold front keeps pushing east into Missouri and Oklahoma for Friday. Similar to Thursday, severe potential will exist during the heating of the day but some storms could remain strong even after sunset! The biggest threat will be damaging winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760641207112.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760641269784.png">Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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NORTHWEST - Snow is heading through the Rockies after piling up to nearly 2 feet in the Sierra Nevada mountains this week! Winter weather advisories remain in effect for Wyoming for snowfall totals between 1-4" above 6,000 feet, with heavier amounts between 6-10" in the higher elevations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 081310-1760624961323.png">Scattered rain and snow showers are expected to continue through most of Thursday as the low pressure system heads northeast through the Great Plains. Precipitation should taper off for most areas by late Thursday night.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 11-03-59-1760627066185.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Through Friday, rain totals may reach an inch, and snowfall totals may surpass half a foot, especially in the Tetons, northern Rockies, and Bitterroots.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/web1-1760627144157.png"><h1>Next Round</h1>A wet pattern is shaping up for the Northwestern United States, especially closer to the coast. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to track toward this region over the next two weeks, including a wet system this weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 08-22-56-1760625052185.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy precipitation will gradually increase Friday night into Saturday before spreading south and east to end the weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 11-07-59-1760627305375.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>New rain totals along and west of the Cascades could top 2-4 inches in some areas, while new snow in higher elevations could easily surpass 6-12 inches.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 082705-1760625040807.png">Get the latest forecast for the northwest anytime at :50 past the hour or with the WeatherNation app.

Patrick Crawford

Lingering Snow in the Rockies, Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

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Brittany Lockley

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As of Wednesday, all evacuation orders have been lifted for Los Angeles after torrential rain fell over burned areas. The warnings were issued for areas with burn scars from earlier fires, like the Palisades, Hurst, and Sunset fire zones, due to the threat of mud and debris flows. Heavy rainfall, snow, and gusty winds continue to calm down for the southern half of the Golden State as a strong trough continues to move to the northeast.Rainfall reached up to 9 inches in California's Haines Canyon, in southern California. The threat of heavy rainfall and snow moves to the northern half of the state this morning.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-15 03-23-08-1760520223806.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Rainfall totals appear impressive for an October storm system in California, considering it is early in the season for such heavy precipitation.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 200559-1760493964815.png"><h1>Rain &amp; Flooding</h1>Flash flooding and debris flows will be possible through early Wednesday despite the rain having already happened. The heaviest of the rain has occurred, with storm totals likely having been upwards of 3 inches, which keeps the burn-scarred areas of southern California from recent wildfires at risk.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-14 144824-1760474941902.png"><h1>Snowfall</h1>Once this event is complete by Wednesday afternoon, snowfall totals may have topped a foot or even two feet in the high Sierra, while areas around the Donner Pass can expect 6-12 inches at the summit. Here are snowfall totals as of Wednesday AM. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web1-1760536071310.png">Winter Storm Warnings (Pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (Purple) have now been dropped for the Sierra Nevada Range but more winter alerts have been issued for areas like Jackson, WY as this system lifts to the NE. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Web2-1760535989343.png">Stay with Weather Nation for the latest, with your West Regional forecast every :50 past the hour.

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

Lingering Snow in the Rockies, Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

Lingering Snow in the Rockies, Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

Lingering Snow in the Rockies, Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Sierra to the Rockies: Flooding Rain & Heavy Snow