Brittany Lockley

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A moisture-rich weather pattern is expected to keep portions of Texas and the western Gulf Coast under the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the coming days. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are forecast to develop over many of the same locations, increasing the potential for flooding, particularly in central and southern Texas.&nbsp;Governor Greg Abbot to activated emergency response resources for 59 Texas counties. As a result, the Texas National Guard and the Department of Public Safety will be deployed as needed.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2077104136101761469" src="https://x.com/GovAbbottPress/status/2077104136101761469"></div>The unsettled pattern is being fueled by a persistent flow of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico combined with weak steering currents in the atmosphere. Because winds aloft are relatively light, thunderstorms will move slowly and may repeatedly track over the same areas. This process, known as training, can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time and quickly overwhelm creeks, rivers, and drainage systems.&nbsp;Some of the greatest concerns are focused on the Texas Hill Country, where steep terrain and fast-responding waterways make the region especially susceptible to flash flooding. Even a few hours of intense rainfall can cause water levels to rise rapidly, creating dangerous conditions for motorists and residents near streams and low-water crossings. Locations that have already received recent rainfall will be more vulnerable because saturated soils have a reduced ability to absorb additional water.&nbsp;Flood Watches are in place through Friday, with life-threatening flooding possible. Rainfall rates of 1"-2" per hour are possible, with 8+ inches of rain possible over the next few days. Cities like Kerrville, Fort Stockton, and Austin are included in the Flood Watch.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084808-1784126894016.png">The threat extends beyond the Hill Country into parts of South Texas, where slow-moving thunderstorms may produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning and isolated strong wind gusts. Urban areas could experience localized street flooding as rainfall rates exceed the capacity of storm drains, while rural communities may see rapid rises on smaller creeks and rivers.&nbsp;<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/0715-1784126945683.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy rain will be possible, with the highest totals around the Big Bend, with isolated totals of a foot possible for some parts. Please use caution and never attempt to drive through flood waters.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084913-1784126958417.png">There has already been over 13" of rainfall recorded.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 084924-1784126969952.png">The active weather pattern will linger for several days before gradually shifting later in the week. Until then, abundant Gulf moisture and daytime heating will continue to provide the ingredients for repeated rounds of heavy rain, keeping the flash flood threat elevated across much of the region.&nbsp;The Weather Prediction Center has issued Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. The WPC has issued a rare, HIGH risk (level 4 out of 4) for significant to catastrophic flooding through Wednesday. 6-10" of rain has already been recorded, and an additional 3-6" with isolated totals up to 10" are possible. This includes places such as Rocksprings, Uvalde, and Del Rio. High-risk days account for 80% of all flood-related damages.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034305-1784108612070.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034313-1784108621969.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034318-1784108631241.png">Residents in flood-prone areas should remain alert for Flash Flood Watches and Warnings and never attempt to drive through flooded roadways. Water levels can rise quickly during slow-moving thunderstorms, and even shallow, fast-moving water can sweep vehicles off the road.&nbsp;For more info on this forecast, you can tune into the Central Regional Forecast at :30 past the hour.

Jackie Brown

Texas Facing Major Flood Threat This week

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Taban Sharifi grew up in Southern California between Los Angeles and San Diego. She is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) with the American Meteorological Society (AMS). She has a B.S. in Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Environmental Sciences with a minor in Environmental Systems and Society from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Go Bruins! While in school, Taban was a meteorology intern with NBC LA. There she helped forecast daily weather for the greater Los Angeles region and created a playbook to deploy weather sensors for NBC owned-and-operated stations across the country. Her first on-air job took her to San Angelo, Texas, where she was a morning meteorologist and co-anchor. Working in West Texas gave her knowledge and experience covering severe storms. From there, she moved to Palm Springs, California. People think forecasting in California is sunshine all the time, but with temperatures in the 120’s, wildfires, damaging winds, floodings, and earthquakes, the forecasting kept her very busy! She also worked there as a general assignment reporter and told community stories. Taban is excited for the challenge and opportunity to forecast nationally with WeatherNation. She also looks forward to exploring all that Colorado has to offer!

Taban Sharifi

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Dangerous heat and record high temperatures continue across the High Plains through the Upper Midwest, eventually moving into the Northeast for this week. A new record high temperature was broken in Rapid City, South Dakota, on Tuesday.ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS were broken across the Western United States on Sunday, July 12th, including cities such as Billings, Montana, reaching a scorching 111° (searing the previous all-time record of 107°) and Salt Lake City, Utah, reaching a toasty 109°, which beat out the previous record set in September of 2022 at 107°.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot20260712193832png-1783906806701.png" alt="main">Heat Alerts remain in place through Thursday across many areas throughout the northern tier of the U.S.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034042-1784108452046.png">Heat safety will be a continued concern going forward. Be sure to stay hydrated and keep looking in the back seat before locking the car. The heatwave continues for the High Plains and Upper Midwest but has shifted to include the northeastern United States through tomorrow.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034104-1784108476710.png">Temperatures in the northeast will be widespread in the 90s, with a few locations hitting the century mark.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034129-1784108502754.png"><h2>Southwest</h2>Dangerous Heat is also being sought across the Southwest this week. Heat alerts have been expanded across California, from the Bay Area to San Diego.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034212-1784108548489.png">Temperatures will be above normal with dewpoints reaching into the 60s. The added layer of humidity will make it difficult for your body to cool off efficiently and effectively.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 034239-1784108571374.png">Here are a few heat safety tips for people affected by the heat.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/pic5-1783634512392.png">More on your Western Regional Forecast can always be found :50 past the hour on WeatherNation.

Historic Heatwave Hits the Northern Rockies, California Heat Expands

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Kevin Schneider

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One area of SIX that we're monitoring in the Atlantic and Pacific! SIX! The area closest to home is obviously the most of interesting so we'll start there<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 094851-1784130723951.png"> At this point, nothing is imminent, but some models are hinting at gradual development. It's a bit of a sloppy setup, with a stationary boundary in the area now, giving way to a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). Timeframe looks like the early-to-middle part of next week. TROPICAL STORM ELIDAWe have our most recent named system, Elida! It earned a name early Wednesday morning as the area of low pressure finally closed off. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 095722-1784131115424.png">This isn't expected to impact land, but could become the first hurricane of the season!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 095934-1784131182730.png">There are three other areas to monitor in the Pacific Ocean. One looks like it will form sometime early next week, in the footsteps of Elida. The other two are potentially forming south of Hawaii. Both of those will stay south of the islands, but could bring some indirect impacts like elevated trade winds or waves. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 100032-1784131456032.png">

Rob Bradley

A New Area to Monitor in the Atlantic

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As temperatures have soared across the Northern U.S., dry conditions have allowed new wildfires. These wildfires burning in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, will send extremely dense smoke into the U.S. on Wednesday. Forecast models show thick, dense smoke sneaking into the Great Lakes before moving across to the Northeast. Below is the latest on the timing and intensity of smoke that is expected across the U.S. Air quality dropped on Tuesday night, and air quality changes are expected as the smoke moves through.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 033756-1784108288952.png">The heat, elevated ozone levels, and anticipated smoke have prompted Air Quality alerts across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The air quality will continue to deteriorate as smoke moves into the area.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 033906-1784108359854.png">Smoke in the air can bring about all sorts of health impacts. Make sure you are protecting yourself and your loved ones.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 161806-1784067504415.png">

Adrian Hernandez

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

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After weeks of hot and mostly dry weather, the Southwest is beginning its transition into the annual North American Monsoon Season. A shift in the overall weather pattern is allowing deeper moisture to move north from the Pacific and Gulf, setting the stage for a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, southern Colorado, and Nevada. Arizona itself saw some stronger storms with wind gusts up to 78 mph!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-14 041114-1784023886071.png">The North American monsoon is a seasonal wind shift that occurs each summer, transporting moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest. As the moist air combines with intense daytime heating and mountainous terrain, thunderstorms become much more common during the afternoon and evening hours.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031441-1784106894823.png">The first surge of monsoonal moisture is expected to increase storm coverage through the coming days. While many of these storms will produce beneficial rainfall for areas experiencing drought, they will also be capable of dropping heavy rain over a short period of time. Because the Southwest’s dry soils do not absorb water efficiently, runoff can develop quickly, creating a heightened risk of flash flooding in washes, slot canyons, and other low-lying locations.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031553-1784106964189.png">Recently burned areas will be particularly susceptible to flooding and debris flows. Vegetation lost to wildfires leaves hillsides unable to absorb rainfall, allowing water, mud, and rocks to move rapidly downhill during intense thunderstorms. There are Marginal and Slight risks for excessive rainfall and flooding over currently burning fires across Utah and Colorado.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot 2026-07-15 031645-1784107029728.png">As the monsoon continues to strengthen through July, residents and visitors across the Southwest should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions each afternoon. Even short-lived storms can produce dangerous flash flooding, making it important to avoid flooded roadways and never enter fast-moving water.

A New Area to Monitor in the Atlantic

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

Texas Facing Major Flood Threat This week

Historic Heatwave Hits the Northern Rockies, California Heat Expands

A New Area to Monitor in the Atlantic

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential

Texas Facing Major Flood Threat This week

Historic Heatwave Hits the Northern Rockies, California Heat Expands

A New Area to Monitor in the Atlantic

Canadian Wildfires to Send Thick Dense Smoke Across The Northern U.S.

Monsoon Moisture Returns to the Southwest, Increasing Storm and Flash Flood Potential