Kevin Schneider

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Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Each week there's been a storm system that ridges from the Plains into the northeast, and we've got another one headed our way. Each wave has brought severe chances and renewed flooding concerns - this one's not much different.<h1>FLOODING</h1>Repeated rounds of storms have led to swollen riverways in areas around the Midwest, like Indiana, in the past week. This week, the concern is more centered around flash flooding, when it simply rains too hard for too long.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 114135-1788111702546.png">Western PA and Western NY are sticking out on some of the model data. However, anywhere that picks up an inch or two in some of the urban corridors around I-95 will be problematic.<h1>SEVERE</h1>As these systems dive southeast out of the Great Lakes, they will have a few ingredients to turn storms severe, potentially. Right now, the timing looks a little later than usual for severe weather events. Generally favoring the afternoon and evening on any one of Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. However, data continues to point more toward the early overnight hours, with storms holding together even into daybreak. With a slow-moving system, this is all subject to change so keep up with the latest on the forecast over the next few days.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-30 rne bams new-1788111769426.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>The Storm Prediction Center has even issued outlooks for severe weather starting Tuesday with a SLIGHT (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms across New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 114009-1788111838815.png">On Wednesday and Thursday there are outlooks for severe weather across Washington D.C., through New York City and Pittsburgh, PA.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 114014-1788111915809.png">With all of the rain in recent weeks, trees will have an easier time toppling. So even if winds don't quite reach the severe threshold, we are still expecting pretty widespread damage.

Alana Cameron

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

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WeatherNation Meteorologists

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Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the Atlantic on Thursday. Former Invest 96-L was able to create a clearly defined center of circulation Thursday morning with robust convection. The system encountered strong winds which broke the system apart. The remnants have a low chance of developing again, but will still bring heavy rain to the Caribbean and the Bahamas in the days ahead.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 dolly caribean-1788052222941.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Puerto Rico has seen dire drought conditions and is in desperate need of rain. Still, with dry ground and hilly terrain, flash flooding will be a threat. Interests in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should stay updated on the forecast in the coming days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061707-1788092262806.jpg">Another low-pressure system in the northern Gulf is being monitored for development, this is an area of investigation denoted Invest 97L. This weak low needs time to get organized but it probably won't have it. Most models expect the low to move onshore by Tuesday, which would stop any development that occurs prior. A few heavy thunderstorms are expected on the north side of the low in the central Gulf.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 163312-1788042798983.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061825-1788092312602.jpg">El Niño has been smothering tropical waves in the Atlantic this summer, with four named storms to date but only 11% of average cyclone energy!<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 061729-1788092360286.jpg">This doesn't mean the rest of the season will be just as quiet, however, as 66% of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic occurs between August 20th and October 10th. The climatological peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season is September 10.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-27 090839-1787843332378.png">

Chances of Development Increasing in the Gulf

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2093859694444155210" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2093859694444155210"></div>It has been an active summer for portions of the Northern Plains, with several rounds of severe weather even during the last week. Another low will spur additional severe weather threats through the end of the weekend and into Monday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the biggest threats. The tornado threat will be isolated, but possible. Daytime heating will provide instability, with afternoons and evenings offering the best chance of severe storms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113628-1788111515733.png">High-based thunderstorms are possible as a trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Today, storms from the Rockies are also likely to head east ahead of a cold front into the Plains and Dakotas, whereas a warm front will also allow for thunderstorms throughout the day.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-30 rnc bams3k-1788111531772.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Most will see around a quarter of an inch or less of rain, but there will be localized heavier rainfall in the storms that develop over the next few days.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113923-1788111568421.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113908-1788111556704.png">For the latest updates on these storms, make sure to tune into the central regional forecast:30 past the hour.

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

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<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="2093881392803299496" src="https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/2093881392803299496"></div>Ready for some fall-like temperatures? Some residents in the Northwest will get a taste of autumn as a cold trough of low pressure digs into the region from Canada this weekend. Another cold trough is expected in the area next week as well!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/west troughies-1788052370992.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video> Farther south, the cooler air will be clashing with the warmth of summer, leading to energy for strong storms and heavy downpours. Many areas around the Four Corners and Rockies will have potential to see 1-3 inches of rain by the end of the day on Tuesday.<h1>Rain &amp; Flood</h1>Pacific moisture will inundate the region, with days of heavy downpours for areas around the Four Corners. 1-4 inches of rain are expected in the favored locations, with scattered flash flooding possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113512-1788111320919.png">Flood outlooks are elevated through Monday in portions of Arizona and Utah, with the isolated risk for flooding lingers around the region through Tuesday at least.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/2026-08-30 09-05-16-1788095151529.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Severe storms appear possible around the Four Corners today and Monday as well, so stay prepared to seek shelter if a warning is issued for you.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 WEST OVERNIGHT BAMS-1788052759450.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>Drought Relief</h1>September is favored for above average precipitation across a majority of the Western United States. This would be a great way to end a solid monsoon season, which runs through the end of the month.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 075355-1788011658558.png">With more rain on the way, drought improvement is likely for some areas, while drought removal is even possible in others. Keep doing your rain dance (take video and tag us if you do!).<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-29 075403-1788011667031.png">

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

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The Pacific hurricane season is showing no signs of slowing down as multiple tropical systems churn across the basin, with warm ocean temperatures and a strengthening El Niño helping create favorable conditions for development.Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell are among the latest systems to form over the open Pacific. Both storms are forecast to strengthen as they remain over warm water and could become potent hurricanes. Karina will continue jogging northwest, but many models flatten out the path to due west late week.Farther west, Lowell is on a trajectory to stay south of Hawaii. However, any sort of interaction with Karina could complicate the forecast here. If Lowell were to be pulled northward, those in Hawaii should be prepared. It's far from a guarantee, however.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 113143-1788111240963.png">The active pattern may not end with the current systems. There is another area southwest of Mexico where a low could develop this weekend. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become favorable for additional organization, giving the disturbance a high chance of tropical development over the next several days. Another disturbance south of Hawaii is also being watched, although its chances of development are currently much lower. That one looks to have no impact of any land mass.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/08-29 gfs-1788053109065.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>El Niño Helping Fuel Pacific Activity</h1>The surge in tropical activity comes as El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across portions of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Those unusually warm waters can influence weather patterns around the globe while also creating an environment that can favor tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2026/08/Screenshot 2026-08-30 070106-1788094892764.png">This year’s El Niño has already strengthened considerably, and forecasts indicate it could become exceptionally strong later this year.While the Pacific remains crowded with tropical systems, many of the current storms are expected to remain over open water. Still, with several additional areas being monitored, the active stretch of the 2026 Pacific hurricane season is far from over.Click here for more on what is happening in the Atlantic Basin:<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/atlantic-tropics-watching-several-areas-strong-tropical-wave-next-week"> Atlantic Tropics.</a>

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

Chances of Development Increasing in the Gulf

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific

Next System Lining Up in the Northeast

Chances of Development Increasing in the Gulf

Days of Severe Weather For The Plains

Western U.S. Enters a Rainier Pattern

El Niño Powers a Party in the Pacific