Brittany Lockley

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October has been relatively quiet in terms of severe weather. There has only been one slight risk day in the last 17 days. This weekend, that all will change as the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes returns. A cross-country storm that brought heavy rainfall and snow to California has moved into the central U.S. The threat begins Friday with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri.<h1>TIMING</h1>During the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1978445758908043673">secondary severe season</a>, the timing of the storms can be tricky. This event appears to be favoring the evening hours on Friday and Saturday.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/FORECAST-1760730951229.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video><h1>SETUP</h1>A strong cold front will drop through the southern plains Friday into Saturday. Ahead of it, warm temperatures, some that might threaten records, will greet the front. The clash between the two air masses will help drive the thunderstorms.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093129-1760542364613.png">As the front moves eastward on Saturday, a slight risk (level 2 out of 4) has been issued for the mid-south and the Ohio Valley.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760732932711.png"><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760732966338.png">Are there going to be storms? Likely. How strong to potentially severe will they be? That's up in the air. It's still a little too early to tell which fine-scale ingredients will be in play.<h1><img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 093533-1760542706942.png"></h1><h1>THREATS</h1>Besides the threat of damaging winds, large hail on Friday. All modes of severe weather will be possible on Saturday. The severe storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 040848-1760695754937.png"> Tune into WeatherNation TV for the latest details.

Jesse Kelley

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

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Rob grew up in South Florida, where daily afternoon storms and hurricanes piqued his interest in meteorology early on. That interest was fostered by his teachers and his father, who one time brought him onto the roof of their home to watch a funnel cloud move through the Everglades several miles away. Years of filmmaking and tv production in high school gradually pushed him toward broadcast meteorology at Florida State University, where he joined and eventually led the student run daily weather show. After graduating with a Bachelors of Science in Meteorology, he began his career at KESQ in Palm Springs, California before heading to KFSN in Fresno and WLOS in Asheville, North Carolina. He has covered a diverse array of extreme weather events, including haboobs and flash flooding in the desert, extreme snow in the Sierra, hurricanes, and Appalachian ice storms. He also enjoys telling stories and reporting about weather issues.

Connect with Rob on <a href="https://twitter.com/WxRobBradley">Twitter</a>

Rob Bradley

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A wet pattern is shaping up for the Northwestern United States, especially closer to the coast. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to track toward this region over the next two weeks, including a wet system this weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-17 04-12-15-1760695975858.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Heavy precipitation will gradually increase Friday night into Saturday before spreading south and east to end the weekend.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760732685407.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>New rain totals along and west of the Cascades could top 2-4 inches in some areas, while new snow in higher elevations could easily surpass 6-12 inches.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760732742821.png">Get the latest forecast for the northwest anytime at :50 past the hour or with the WeatherNation app.

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

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As the Atlantic hurricane season enters its final stretch,&nbsp;a new tropical wave is emerging in the central Atlantic Ocean. The disturbance, which is moving westward at around 15 to 20 mph, has drawn attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to its potential to organize over the next several days. Although the system currently has a 30 % chance of development in the short term,&nbsp;environmental conditions could become more favorable later this week as it approaches the Caribbean.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 043923-1760697599176.png">The long-range models have been hinting at some potential tropical development of the Caribbean wave in the next week or so.&nbsp;Right now, the wave is battling some dry air and moderate wind shear, two factors that often limit tropical development. By mid- to late week, as it continues westward, the system will encounter more humid air and slightly weaker upper-level winds. That is when long-range models&nbsp;indicate there is a better chance for gradual organization. Below is just ONE MODEL RUN of what could happen going forward!<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-17 04-40-39-1760697671195.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Sea surface temperatures remain warm across much of the Atlantic basin, providing ample fuel if the wave can find a pocket of lower shear and increased moisture. As this wave closes in on the Leeward Islands, little to no development is expected. However, heavy rain and breezy conditions will move through the island chain. What happens after that? Only time will tell.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 044010-1760697624879.png">The concerns? The Caribbean is still as warm as bathwater right now, so it wouldn't take much time for something to potentially organize. The concern after that? Where does the system go IF it develops? Again, still a big IF, but climatologically speaking, this is where we would expect an October storm. This latest tropical wave is part of a broader late-season pattern typical of October, when the main area of development shifts westward toward the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. During this time of year, even a small system can strengthen quickly if the conditions align, making close monitoring essential for the islands and nearby coastal regions. While many tropical waves fade harmlessly over open water, the warmth of the western Atlantic and the seasonal transition can sometimes give these systems a late-season boost.&nbsp;<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-16 075337-1760622828329.png">So what's the final outcome with this system? How many systems have "looked good" 12 days out and have fizzled on us this year? Are there some ensemble models that find some development? Sure. Are all of them developing this wave? Not yet. October is not the month to let your guard down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-15 103336-1760546429287.png">Tune into WeatherNation for the top weather headlines for more on the tropics.

Patrick Crawford

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

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Ready for another La Niña winter? NOAA quietly released it's outlook for the upcoming winter season on Thursday, sans press conference since the government shutdown continues. The press conference has been rescheduled to November but the outlook is still ready for us to digest. As a reminder, these outlooks are for the overall three month pattern and do not serve to predict seasonal snowfall totals or bursts of cold/warmth that are likely to impact areas highlighted with the seemingly opposite outlook. The National Weather Service released the following video showcasing the newly released outlooks for temperature, precipitation, and drought from December through February.<div class="twitter-tweet" style="display: flex; justify-content: center" data-twitt-post-id="1978839667907744157" src="https://x.com/NWS/status/1978839667907744157"></div><h1>Temperature</h1>Above average temperatures are favored across the southern tier of the United States, while below average temperatures are favored across the Upper-Midwest and Northwest. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065848-1760706897085.png"><h1>Precipitation</h1> As the jetstream is likely to remain more active across the northern tier of the country, allowing for cooler air, it should also allow for more storms to track through these areas. As such, above average precipitation is favored from the Northwest through the Great Lakes, while drier than average conditions are expected from Southern California through Florida and the Carolinas. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065852-1760706026499.png"><h1>Influences</h1>In case you missed it, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-advisory-issued-how-this-could-affect-the-winter-season">a La Niña Advisory was issued last week</a> as these conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific west of South America. La Niña is expected to persist through winter, which is one of the primary reasons the winter outlook favors the areas it does. La Niña patterns vary greatly from year to year, depending on the strength of La Niña and the phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). The graphic below shows the typical pattern of the Pacific and Polar jets during a La Niña winter, which usher in cooler and wet air masses. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 065856-1760707324994.png">There is lower confidence that La Niña continues through the late winter and early spring (graphic below), which could throw a wrench in the seasonal forecast. <img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073303-1760707994646.png">ENSO (El Niño &amp; southern Osciallation) neutral conditions have a less obvious pattern influence, but wetter conditions can develop farther south than during La Niña. What's the takeaway? Be prepared for anything this winter! We'll always keep you up to date on air and online.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/Screenshot 2025-10-17 073307-1760708002217.png">

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

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Alana Cameron was born and raised in Canada in the city of Mississauga, just outside of Toronto. Alana is the oldest of 4 siblings, all close in age, and grew up playing outside with them in all types of weather. After graduating high school, Alana moved to study at the University of British Columbia in Kelowna for a year before transferring to Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia where she completed a Bachelor of Science in Physics and Atmospheric Science. Upon completion, Alana moved back to Toronto where she completed a post-grad degree in Meteorology at York University. After her post-grad, she went on to complete another post-grad in Broadcast Journalism - TV News at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario. During her final year of studies she had the privilege of interning with the best in the business in Canada at The Weather Network. Once she finished her internship, she got the call from small-town Denison, Texas where she accepted a job as an on-air meteorologist at KTEN-TV, right in tornado alley, covering severe weather from Sherman/Denison (North Texas) to Ada (Southern Oklahoma). After the most active tornado season Oklahoma had seen in May 2019 (105 tornadoes!) Alana is excited to join WeatherNation to cover weather all across the nation. If you're interested in following her on social media she can be found @alanacameronwx!

Alana Cameron

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A ridge of high pressure has been responsible for the quiet and warm days across the central U.S., but on the western periphery of this ridge, a trough will attempt to slide in and ignite severe weather chances across the High Plains. The storms that are steered between these two upper-level systems are what we often refer to as "ridge-riding" thunderstorms.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/2025-10-16 05-09-22-1760612987566.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>On Thursday, another MARGINAL (level 1 out of 5) risk is issued as the cold front shifts down into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, even extending all the way into central Nebraska. All kinds of severe weather are possible.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669659768.png">There is a small risk of tornadoes in the latest SPC advisory for Thursday. It covers cities from North Platte, NE, over to Colby, KS and as far south as Cheyenne Wells, CO. Make sure you have a way of getting notified if anything is to touch down.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760640961225.png">The cold front keeps pushing east into Missouri and Oklahoma for Friday. Similar to Thursday, severe potential will exist during the heating of the day but some storms could remain strong even after sunset! The biggest threat will be damaging winds.<video src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/New Baron Video 3-1760669791973.mp4" controls="true" width="100%"></video>Forecasted rainfall totals look to be highest across central Nebraska, where some may receive 1-1.5" of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.<img src="https://media.weathernationtv.com/app/uploads/2025/10/1-1760669880981.png">Be sure to join us at :30 past the hour to see how this will impact your temperature forecast, too!

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains

Strong Fall Front Fires Up Severe Chances This Weekend

Wet Pattern for the NW Continues

Next Wave in the Atlantic to Watch

NOAA Releases Outlook for Winter 25-26'

Ridge Riding Thunderstorms in the Western Plains